2016 California Forecast Results

Almond Orchard in Merced County

Last year, Vinsight released its first full season statewide forecast for grapes and almonds. These forecasts incorporate a wealth of data and information including crop specific varieties. This meant that each month from April to September, forecasts were updated and released at the state, county and field levels. Forecasts were produced and shared directly with customers. The 2016 California statewide grape forecasts were released with data up to June of 2016.

2016 Grape Forecast: 4.54 tons/acre

2016 Grape Actuals: 5.03 tons/acre*

The 2016 California statewide almond results below are shown in pounds/acre as is the industry standard.

2016 Almond Forecast: 2,120 pounds/acre

2016 Almond Actuals: 2,280 pounds/acre*

Comparing the actuals and forecasts for each crop show that the error was 6–9%. This was within the actual yield variation from year to year. As the 2016 growing season went on, the numbers fluctuated but stayed within 1–2% of the June forecast. The actuals were calculated from bearing acreage and total production. 2016 statewide actuals were just released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) last month.

Each season we gather more datasets and learn more about each region, crop and variety behavior to improve the forecasts’ accuracy and precision.

2017 grape and almond forecasts for state, counties and fields are being released to paying customers now. Our state and county results will be publicly released right before harvest so stay tuned!

*Source: USDA/NASS, Pacific Regional Office, numbers subject to update