2017 Almond Yield Forecast
2017 has been the first full year where we have pushed out forecasts for our almond customers. After updating our modeling and incorporating new datasets into our feature selection, the forecasts have become more reliable. Historically ranging from 5–8% error comparing the forecast to actual counted yield.
These forecasts are purely data driven, meaning that we look at current conditions on the ground, aggregate conditions seen throughout the current season and allow our machine learning models to forecast the yield. There is no one tweaking the data or putting a ‘fudge factor’ on the yield. Data is telling the story.
Here is Vinsight’s almond forecast for the whole state of California from the beginning of July.
Almond Forecast: 2,300 pounds/acre
This indicates a slightly higher yield from last year (2016 yield was ~2280 lbs/acre). We expect this year’s yield number to decrease slightly as heat spikes in Growing Degree Days have occurred throughout July.
In comparison, the USDA puts out an objective forecast for almonds based on grower surveys and in field opinions.
Almond Object Forecast: 2,250 pounds/acre*
The above number is based off of a production of 2.25 billion meat pounds and assuming 1 million bearing acres.
In addition to yield numbers, we also give growers, buyers and brokers data to support our yield forecast. Below showcases some data trends for California that give additional insight into the yield.
Follow us on twitter @VinsightCo for more updates and end of growing season results!
*NASS USDA: 2017 California Almond Objective Measurement Report