This is our third year providing a statewide grape forecast. Each season we have expanded our coverage, incorporated more data sets and improved our modeling. Our historical error rates have been in the 7–10% error range depending on the spatial scale.
Below is Vinsight’s total grape yield forecast for California taken with data from the end of July.
Grape Forecast: 4.87 tons/acre
Comparing to last years’ actual grape yield of 4.90 tons/acre, this shows a slight decrease in yield. 2016’s crop was at about average yield looking at the last 10 years years of statewide numbers.
With the yield forecast and historical modeling performance, we provide additional insights into statewide trends that heavily influence yield. Here are a few of the top features for this year. One of the features that can be seen in June and July is higher than average Growing Degree Days; this has since continued into August. Meaning that grapes could see shrivel before maturity and lead to all sorts of other problems.
Keep following us on twitter @VinsightCo for additional forecasts/information regarding yield and weather trends!
