How our 2018 wine grape forecast compared to actuals

Central coast vineyards

Over the last couple of weeks, the USDA released the 2018 grape crush report as well as the acreage report.

There were 4,506,583 tons of wine grapes crushed in California last year, up 6% from last year. This is the third year in a row for increased production.

For wine grapes, there were 590,000 bearing acres in 2018. This exceeded expectations as acreage has been holding steady near 560,000 the last few years.

With the total production and bearing acres, actual yield comes in at 7.64 tons/acre.

Below are our forecasts for yield and acreage with calculated production all from April of 2018.

Yield Forecast: 8.1 tons/acre

Estimated Bearing Acreage: 562,000 acres

Production Forecast: 4,552,200 tons

“By the numbers, our error was 6% for yield, 5% for bearing acreage and 1% for production for wine grapes in 2018.” — Michael Bertino, Head of Product

We’ve been working hard on continuing to improve our models, incorporate useful data and engage with farmers in the field.

Our first 2019 forecasts are now live in our product. Keep checking back for more updates each month as we get closer to harvest. Happy growing!