WagerWire Weekly — NFL Edition — Week 1
by Alexander Jacobs, WWxNFL Editor-at-Large
Welcome to the future of sports betting. Gone are the days when you place a Super Bowl future before week 1, and then sit on your thumbs while your team goes through the rollercoaster that is the NFL regular season. Every team, including Josh Allen’s Bills, will go through its ups and downs this year, and if you play WagerWire correctly, you can profit in more ways than ever before. Buying Low and Selling High is an investing tale as old as time, and now it is finally time to put that strategy to the test on the field.
Here are two teams I am selling high on after Week 1:
- Miami Dolphins (Record 1–0) (Next Up: At Baltimore)
The Fins had one of the more eventful off-seasons in recent history, starting with their fired coach further exposing the NFL for its racist tendencies, and culminating in a 10 game ban for its billionaire owner along with the signing of superstar (and noted scumbag) wide-out Tyreek Hill. In week 1 they were able to put the hoopla behind them and put up a semi impressive W over the lifeless New England Patriots. Despite the beatdown, this game saw Tua put his noodle arm on display once again, as he improved to 4–0 all-time against Bill Bellichick thanks to his passes fluttering only slightly less than his counterpart, Mac Jones. I watched every snap of this game, and it was clear that the result was more about New England being unable to get out of its own way, than anything the 22 year old looking Mike Macdaniel drew up. Miami scored once on defense, and once on a 4th and 7 from midfield, and the rest of the day had Hill and Waddle picking up short hops from Tua like Paul O’neill. With a trip to Baltimore up next, I am using this flukey week 1 result as the perfect opportunity to sell out of all of my Miami Dolphins futures. They are not winning the Super Bowl, conference, or division, and I sure as hell don’t want to be stuck holding any of those tickets when they get blown out in Week 2. This is a situation that might even present an opportunity to buy back in prior to Week 3.
2. Seattle Seahawks (Record 1–0) (Next up: At 49ers)
The feel good story of week 1 was Geno Smith and the Seahawks playing spoiler to Russel Wilson’s homecoming, after he left them like they were an Ex-GF that put on 30 pounds. Feeling undoubtedly more confident in his new roster, and younger Head Coach, Wilson and his Broncos forgot how to play football every time they got near the goalline, fumbling twice on the 1, leading to a loss that has Vegas already planning upgrades to the strip. It was nothing short of a putrid collapse for a team with high hopes coming into the year, and one of the worst mismanaged end of game situations from a coach since Andy Reid left Philadelphia. With all that went on, it was clear to me that the Hawks and their candy-ass uniforms were outplayed for most of the night. Some turnover luck, and the opposing coach puking on himself gave you a 1–0 record, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves in the Pacific Northwest. If I was silly enough to put a ticket on them prior to week 1, I am cashing in on my luck and getting out of dodge before they play a single game away from the friendly confines of the 12th man.
Teams I am Buying Low on
- Denver Broncos (Record 0–1) (Next Up: vs Houston)
For many of the same reasons I am selling on Seattle, I am looking to buy low on Russ Wilson and the Denver Broncos. Things could not have gone much worse for Denver on Monday Night, as they failed to score a TD on 4 trips inside the opposing 10 yard line. As mentioned above, their newbie Head Coach looked every bit of it, letting the clock wind down before opting to go with a 64 yard FG try instead of trusting his $300Million QB to pick up 5 yards. With that said, Denver controlled most of the football game, which is never an easy thing to do in Seattle. There also could not have been a more absurd situation to throw Russel Wilson into in the first game with his new club. Sending him out to play game 1 on the road against the team he spent the prior decade with was flat out cruel and unusual by the schedule elves of the NFL. It was surprising that he walked into the right locker room before the game, nevermind get his team in position time and time again to win the game. Hackett having to coach his first game in a stadium where he can’t hear his own farts can’t be easy either. It will only get smoother from here for Mr. Unlimited and company, especially when they return home in Week 2 to face the lowly Texans. You might not find a better price than you will see after their week 1 debacle, so I am looking to buy now.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (Record 0–1) (Next up: At Dallas)
In the wackiest game of week 1, the defending AFC champions were upended in overtime against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with both teams narrowly avoiding the second tie of the day. It was an ugly game for Joe Burrow, who tossed 4 picks soon after declaring himself the healthiest he has been so far in his young career. Even with all of those completions to the wrong team, Jackpot Joey put his team in position to win the game with a vintage 4th quarter drive that included multiple connections and the game tying TD to Jamarr Chase. With no time left, Playoff hero and Cincinnati legend Evan Macpherson had a measly extra point to overcome the early struggles and send the Bengals out a winner, however an injury to the long-snapper earlier in the day proved to be extremely costly. A slow floating snap that looked like it was thrown by Mac Jones arrived late and gave Steelers stud Minkah Fitzpatrick time to bust through the line and block, giving the one-sided Steelers another life. After some more back n forths in OT, another Mac Jones dart sailed high on Bengals holder before he presented the laces to Macpherson to hook a 29 yarder for the would be win. When all was said and done, old reliable Chris Boswell booted one through from 54 to bring on the Super Bowl hangover. I, for one, am not buying that narrative. THe Bengals starters did not play a lick in the preseason, and it showed. The O-line was out of sync, Burrow looked like he was training camp mode during the first half, and the Bengals were not ready to roll. With no preseason games, this is many of these guys first live action since the intensity of playing in the Super Bowl. Seeing Mitch Trubisky on the other sideline is not going to bring out those same emotions. The Burrow to Chase connection is still unstoppable, and Tee Higgins should be back in Week 2 as well. Speaking of Week 2, this would have been a tough matchup to avoid a hole, until Dallas’s season took a turn losing Dak for 2 months. All Cinci has to do is knock off Cooper Rush to get back to Even par, and I predict them making another playoff run. No better time to buy back in than now.