WAGERWIRE WEEKLY — NFL Edition — Weeks 4-5

by Alex Jacobs, WWxNFL Editor-in-Chief

Welcome to the future of sports betting. Gone are the days when you place a Super Bowl future before Week 1 sitting on your thumbs while your team goes through the NFL regular season rollercoaster.

Every team, including Josh Allen’s Bills, will go through its ups and downs this year. If you play WagerWire correctly, you can profit in more ways than ever before. Buying Low and Selling High is an investing tale as old as time, and now, it is finally time to put that strategy to the test on the field.

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With about a quarter of the season behind us, things are very much still up in the air across the entire league. The mighty Bills nearly dropped to 2–2, but escaped with a W thanks to a Harbaugh collapse, and the defending SB Champs were annihilated on Monday Night Football. The Patriots almost knocked off Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau with a third string rookie QB, and Geno Smith continues to outperform Russell Wilson by a longshot. As always, the roller coaster of the NFL season is in full swing, and we can all agree, there is nothing better.

Week 5: Where I am Buying Low:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As always, I am looking to find value in markets and in areas that other folks might be a bit down on. One great way to achieve that is to look at teams that lose in primetime spots with the whole country watching. After a Sunday Night Football drubbing at the hands of Patrick Mahomes, that is exactly where I find the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite an impending divorce, Tom Brady finally got the offense moving on Sunday Night Football, in the Bucs 41–31 Loss to the Chiefs. The offense was this teams primary concern through 3 weeks of the season, but with Evans and Godwin back in the lineup, scoring was not an issue in Week 4. This L was solely on the D, who could not get off the field on third down vs KC. But are we really going to panic about that, because of another otherworldly performance from Patrick Mahomes? Mahomes was incredible, turning sacks into TD flips, and running for first downs whenever things broke down. The guy was unstoppable, as he tends to be in most games, and the Bucs won’t have to worry about seeing him until a potential Super Bowl Rematch. I am not going to let one beating from Mahomes turn me off of this defense, which has carried this team to this point. If Brady can ignore the fact that he is divorcing the most successful supermodel of all time to play a 24th season of football, and continue to play at the level he did Sunday, then I see value in the Bucs. This team was +700 to win the SB going into the season, yet currently sit at +1200 on DK. They play in the worst division in football, and I am rolling with Tom and betting on the fact that he cares more about an 8th SuperBowl ring than he does about his family falling apart.

New England Patriots

As if betting on TB12 didn’t make me look like enough of a homer, is there really a better time to throw your eggs in Bill Belichick’s basket? The New England Patriots had every opportunity to knock off the mighty Green Bay Packers at Lambeau field, and were about 10 yards in OT away from having a FG attempt to win it. Let us not forget, they did all of that with a 3rd string rookie quarterback squaring off against Aaron Rodgers, whom they picked off for a TD and made look horrific in the first half. I understand the Patriots have made a habit of blowing winnable games over the last couple of years, but this team showed a tremendous amount of balls on Sunday afternoon. If we are talking about value, this team is currently sitting at +12000 on FanDual to win the SuperBowl. Do I think they are going to win it all? Absolutely not, BUT… let’s take a look at their upcoming slate of games…vs Detroit, @Cleveland, vs Chicago, @ NYJ, vs Colts, and vs NYJ. That schedule isn’t scaring anyone, and there is a distinct possibility this team goes from 1–3 to 7–3, even if Bailey Zappe has to start a couple more games. Not to mention, they have only played 1 of their first 4 games at home where they are a far better team. If they can rip off a few Wins, that +12000 will come steaming down, just as it did last year when rookie Mac Jones took them on a win streak around the same time of the season. While none of those games are gimmies, they can rely heavily on a stellar ground game, and a strong defense, along with a HC who generally gets his teams playing a lot better after September. Give me my New England Patriots all day long at +12000, where I will be able to lock in a profit and flip it in 2 months.

Where I am Selling High going into Week 5

Minnesota Vikings

On the flip side, there are a few teams that are creating some early season buzz, that I just can’t get behind. All Off-season, I heard about how Kevin O’connell was a mini Sean McVay, and he was going to turn Kirk Cousins into, well, not Kirk Cousins. To me, he looks like the same old Kirk Cousins, who can get it done in a clean pocket at 1 PM on a Sunday, and completely falls apart in every other circumstance. After a nice week 1 win over Green Bay, the Vikes have looked mediocre at best, stacking last second wins over the Lions and the Any Dalton led Saints. Through a quarter of the season, I am not that impressed with this team, who were a lot of people’s darkhorse to win the NFC going into the year. I initially bought into that hype, and put a bet in on them to win the NFC North. The good news is, that bet is in the green right now, but it won’t be for long. The Packers are going to continue to improve and will emerge as the team to win that division. They still play each other in Lambeau, and Cousins still has to play a night game on Thanksgiving. With Adam Thielen looking slow, they don’t have another weapon to pair with the electric Justin Jefferson. I can flip my Vikings NFC North ticket now for a profit, before the Pack take the division by storm.

Lamar Jackson is incredible, but Sunday will end up going down as a big reason why he is not taking home another MVP trophy this year. I took Lamar preseason at +2000 to win an MVP, as I knew he would have to put up crazy numbers to mask a sub-par Ravens D. He has dazzled every week so far, particularly in the thrilling W New England. He has played even better than I could have anticipated so far, which is why his current MVP odds have jumped to +550, third highest in the league. For that reason, this presents the perfect time to cash in. A $100 dollar preseason ticket can likely fetch around $250 in the secondary market, or you can hold it until it’s worth nothing if you so choose. The two guys ahead of LJ;Josh Allen who just beat him head to head on Sunday, and Patrick Mahomes, who electrified the country a few hours later. Losing head to head against another major contender will cost him dearly in the long run, and Josh Allen is showing no signs of slowing down. Additionally, the Chiefs and Bills are both better than Baltimore, and will continue to put up unparalleled offensive numbers, establishing their two leaders as the runaway candidates to NFL MVP. With Lamar currently in the conversation, I have the perfect opportunity to pick up a 2.5x return after just 4 weeks. Cash it.

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