Daily Fantasy is Very Hard
I was humbled twice this week. My typical strategy is to put together three different line-ups and then enter those line-ups in multiple contests. Typically a 50/50 and then several multipliers so if my line-up is a winner I’ll get some juice on my return. Of course when my line-ups are losers, my losses are magnified……which is what happened to me twice this week.
After increasing my initial “investment” by 230% in 5 days and then getting blown up on consecutive nights where I lost everything, I should probably get out of the game…..but that wouldn’t be very much fun (and I’m probably addicted). I convinced myself that if I play every night for the same amount of money and consistently follow the strategy I highlighted above, I should be able to generate a 20%+ return a week. So I dug into the old couch cushions and came up with enough change to reload my fanduel account. Here goes nothing!!!
For tonight’s games I’m structuring three different line ups predominantly made up of first line guys on the four teams I think have the highest chance of winning (and scoring): Sharks (over Devils), Wings (over Canes), Ducks (over Avs) and Wild (over Kings).
The Sharks look dominant and Devils are bad. No real value plays with Sharks, but Thornton, Marleau and Pavelski are all fairly priced. I’m also starting Jones who is on fire (and like I said — the Devils are really bad).
The Ducks have been just awful to start the season; scoring just one goal in their first three games. This seems almost impossible and I am highly confident they snap out of the funk tonight against the Avs. I don’t normally like spending a lot of money on any one player, but in this case I’m playing the odds that both Getzlaf and Perry produce.
I like the Wings because they are on fire, control the play, take a lot of shots and they have some mispriced first line players like Larkin ($3,500), Abdelkader ($4,800) and Nyquist ($5,400).
Similarly the Wild look really good to start the year. Young, fast and talented. Suter ($4,300), Granlund ($4,800) and Koivu ($4,900) are all mispriced in my mind so I’m getting them into my line-ups.
Here is a pretty good line up for tonight:
LW Larkin $3,500
LW Nyquist $5,400
RW Pavelski $7,800
RW Perry $8,600
C Thornton $5,500
C Getzlaf $8,300
D Suter $4,300
D Vlasic $3,800
G Jones $7,700