Apple

WWDC 2024: iCloudy Forecasts Ahead Amidst Dampening Expectations

Apple’s Got Some Work To Do

Here it comes. Apple is heading into its annual World Wide Developer’s Conference (WWDC) with announcements of its next big things beginning June 10th. By all accounts, this year those next big things will center on AI which is short for Artificial Intelligence. There won’t be any shortage of AI in a tech world that has grown both AI crazy and AI fearful, putting Apple is in the unusual position of playing follow the leader in more obvious ways than in the past.

There will be other new features announced for iPhones, Macs, Apple Watches, perhaps even the Vision Pro, but as always the focus will be on what’s new. Even though a goodly portion of what’s new and exciting each year often ends up being a bit “meh” in the end. Either “meh” or rolled out and forgotten as Apple shifts its attention to what next year’s next big things will be. That seems to be what’s happening this year as Apple has turned most of its focus to AI.

Apple is also unfortunately positioned to have to work harder in making its splashy announcements splashy and dodging seemingly already diminished expectations on a number of fronts. Most anticipate Apple’s AI announcements to be less than sexy and the iPad faithful/hopeful seemed to be poised to continue piling on the criticism (some necessary, some not) that greeted newer iPads less than a month ago.

So, on two big fronts, AI and iPadOS, Apple has some tougher challenges ahead than it usually does this time of year. And bad timing is at the root of both.

The iPad Issue Is Touchy

On the iPad front, for whatever reason Apple went more than a year before releasing new iPads. When they did debut them last month they surprised everyone by including new M4 chips in the new Pro lineup, upsetting every pundit’s attempts at trying to assign a predictable timetable to the continued Apple Silicon evolution. Coming just weeks ahead of WWDC, and without any new operating system software to accompany it, Apple opened up a slew of doors for the salivating pundit class to rush through, cranking up the complaints about iPadOS not taking advantage of very powerful and much loved hardware. And, as always, the married at the hip debates about being able to run macOS on an iPad or adding a touch screen to the Mac tagged along as noisy bridesmaids.

It’s a bit frustrating for a regular and religious iPad user. While the issues are genuine, they negatively dominate the conversation given that they come from the influential voices that helped turn the iPad into a success in the first place. I know the issues are long simmering, well intentioned, and come from the heart of those who love the device, but the recent sudden crescendo was deafening enough to fire up a Loud Environment warning on an Apple Watch. With WWDC just around the corner everyone knew the new devices alone were not going to offer anything remotely close to a new and different iPad experience. It just seemed premature to me. If they were meant as a warning to Apple, then I would call it not only premature, but a misfire given the timing.

Those debates and complaints probably aren’t going to end in the foreseeable future as entertaining and exhausting as they can be. Between manifestos, and well thought through lists of what some desire on iPads, there was some general vitriolic piling on. It heralds a tough year ahead for Apple and its iPad lineup.

My prediction is that no one is going to be remotely satisfied with this year’s iPadOS release. Most rumors say not much of consequence will be announced. It’s certainly going to be interesting to follow the commentariat class as they wrestle with how many different ways they can say the iPads are great devices but Apple keeps holding them back for another year.

Perhaps this year changes things, but typically big OS changes come to the iPhone first with iPads and Macs bringing up the rear in the year or years that follow. Given Apple’s push into AI as this year’s big iPhone tent pole, if the iPad doesn’t get included it will add even more to those complaints and increase the volume.

AI Adventures Ahead

It is not a hallucination. Apple is all in on AI. This is about as big a non-secret as Apple has ever pre-rolled out prior to WWDC. Apple really had no choice. It was getting beaten up in the markets by advances from OpenAI, Google, Microsoft and others. It doesn’t matter that some of those moves by others will end up in the “meh” category when all is said and done. Apple had to move or risk being thought of as an AI wall flower when everyone is creating new dance moves.

To be clear, no one really knows what Apple will or will not announce as a part of its AI efforts. Rumors abound. Partnerships with OpenAI (ChatGPT) and/or Google have been tossed around. Some expectation dimming is already afoot. Apple has leaked that being able to control functions within its own apps via AI and Siri won’t be coming until later in the year. So, again, who knows?

There is word that Apple is going to fold many of its AI features into Siri. That makes logical sense, even if Siri’s incompetence is already the butt of so many jokes that very few even tell Dad jokes about it anymore. Apple and its chorus will try to make some hay out of its well honed approach to privacy and that’s a good thing. The world is nervous about AI on so many fronts and privacy concerns are certainly front and center among them.

With the rumors of Apple keeping many of its AI features on device but allowing users to reach out to ChatGPT or some other AI chat bot I’m reminded of an iPhone era when Twitter and Facebook were Internet accounts that you controlled in the iOS Settings app. I doubt that will happen in the same way this time around, but I’m guessing the hooks will somehow be set just as deeply and eventually just as painful to extract.

Pointedly, It’s not just about the tech. Apple will be damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t move in a fashion deemed sexy enough by a marketplace seduced with lots of AI temptations. It’s a siren’s song that Apple has been forced to dance to. Apple is late to this party and its historic strategy of not leaping first has cost it in this instance. More on that later.

Regardless of what Apple announces there will be lots of noise. Apple will have to loudly beat whatever AI drum it has for both customers and investors to keep their attention given the better than sliced bread AI frenzy we’re now in.

Certainly Apple will be using iCloud for some of the processing and management of whatever AI it rolls out, adding even more complexity to what I’ve taken to calling the secret OS that Apple won’t name: iCloudOS.

I’ll write more about iCloudOS tomorrow and how Apple needs to pay attention to that server based world in the sky before adding any more complexity to it.

The Bigger Picture

Quite some time ago I wrote that Apple had created a Design Trap for itself. That’s still the case, but there’s another trap of Apple’s own making now beginning to rear its head. Apple has always adopted a strategic posture of not piling on new features until they have reasons to do so and a compelling story to tell about those reasons. Historically that has served them well but also seen them behind the curve on some things, though nothing of any significant consequence.

Thanks to the iPhone, Apple’s immense presence in the marketplace has enabled the company Steve Jobs built to become the gravitational force the mobile computing market orbits around, largely dictating the annual pace and paths of those orbits. At the moment AI is breathing potential new life into hardware and software markets in much the same way the iPhone and Apple Silicon did for Apple and everyone’s orbital paths are becoming a bit more spasmodic.

It’s possible Apple’s hold on the center is about to change in ways big and small. It’s also possible that will not happen. Things are moving faster than I can recall in over 20 some years of covering tech and each movement seems to ratchet up the pace and the stakes, even if some of them will end up not paying off. Apple’s reaction to AI feels almost knee-jerk in comparison to its history. That leads me to believe that bigger changes structurally within the company might be needed if Apple is going to continue to dominate and excel as it has in the past.

There may not be much excitement about shiny new things at WWDC 2024 as Apple plays catch up in the AI race. But it will be the beginning of an exciting new chapter in a story that’s being written faster than any LLM can keep up with.

You can find more of my writings on a variety of topics on Medium at this link, including in the publications Ellemeno and Rome. You can also find me at my own blog, Life On The Wicked Stage: Act 3 and on the socials under my name as listed here.