MARCHING IN LIKE A LION!!!

After a Monday of a few showers we are well on our way to warmer conditions to round out February. Temperatures are still running 10–20 degrees above average with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday back around 70 degrees. With that said we would be in the top 3 spots for the warmest February on record in both Charleston and Huntington The average high temperature for the month alone is 45.9 degrees which has been the general trend this winter Not much cold nor snow but instead warmth and severe storms.

To your left is the all time record high temperature for the month of February which we tied on February 25, 2017. The record stood untouched since 1931. To your right we have a crazy graphic that illustrates the fact that there have been more 70 and 80 degree days this Winter compared to snowfall in many locations across WV/OH/KY.

Speaking of severe storms they are back in the forecast for the middle of the workweek ahead. Once again its another powerful cold front cutting across the country to try to bring us back to more of a Winter-esque feel.

Wednesday’s severe weather ingredients. Remember our atmosphere is just like a cake or hamburger with many layers to get things rumbling

This week’s severe threat will kind of be the same as last Friday and Saturday. Today we had the warm front which brought a few sprinkles along with a return of mild air. Tuesday we will set the stage with a few ripples of energy moving through that will build more moisture out ahead of the main lift early Wednesday morning.

On a scale of 1 to 5 we are looking at about a 2 which is a slight risk of severe weather. The main threats include winds up to 60 mph, small hail, and heavy rainfall.

As warm Gulf of Mexico moisture blowing on in and cold Canadian air driving in from the west we have the perfect battleground for severe weather. Timing though will be key though to how much of a threat we do see. In a FacebookLive update Sunday night during our 11 pm newscast most models continue to hit on a squall line situation early Wednesday morning with a heavy blast of rain late Wednesday afternoon.

Model out 4 minutes and 17 seconds into the live chat.

The NAM (North American Model) continues to be the most aggressive with the threat. The problem we have though is the timing which really work into our favor. Storms look to fire out ahead of the front in a warm moist pool of air early Wednesday morning. The key word in that sentence is morning. In the morning hours we do not maximize on the energy of the sun that drives the storms. In this case we are working off moisture and winds aloft to drive our threat. Its a one two punch pretty much with wind and rumbles first followed by high water concerns later in the day.

Rainfall totals Tuesday into Wednesday according to the BAMS model around 1–2"+. The Weather Prediction Center is bulleyed on these same amounts with a few localized heavier pockets based on abnormally high precipitable water values for early March.

In summary there is no need to panic or to worry. Yes we have severe weather in the forecast but it looks as if this go around time is on our side. Cloud cover could also save the day too. The biggest threats here will be gusty damaging winds of 50–60 mph, small hail pea to quarter size, and heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. Sporadic power outages are likely so have a plan ready to go with a charged cellphone and extra batteries for at least day. Timing on the first round should be between 4am-7am Wednesday with a secondary round after 2pm Wednesday afternoon. Download our free Stormtracker 13 mobile app available at the Apple and GooglePlay store to stay ahead of the storm. Other updates can be found on Twitter and Facebook at Stormtracker 13.

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