Acknowledgements of articles written and/or points made by: Steve Peers, Garvan Walshe, Lee Rotherham, Iain Martin, David Henig, ‘Steerpike’, Richard North, John Springford, Charles Grant, Peter Foster, David Allen Green, Alex Barker, Jim Brunsden, The Institute for Government, Lars Karlsson, Adam Tucker, EFTA4UK, Sam Lowe, Sylvia de Mars, George Peretz, Andrew Duff, Andrew Chapman, Carl Baudenbacher, Victoria Hewson, Fabian Picardo, Katy Hayward, David Phinnemore, Brendan O’Neill, Allie Renison, Tim Montgomerie, Ian Dunt, Juliet Samuel.

NOTE THAT THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN SUPERSEDED BY THIS TWEET THREAD (UNTIL I GET TIME TO WRITE ANOTHER ARTICLE): https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1064496749673422848

If this Withdrawal Agreement (‘WA’) is…


You may have noticed that a number of people who supported Remain don’t accept the result and maintain a hope that the UK might not leave the EU after all. Or, if/when the UK does leave the EU, that we might quickly rejoin. I’ll call these people “Reversers”.

It is worth saying straight away that this appears to be a minority viewpoint. A Yougov poll in November 2016 suggested that 68% of all voters now think Britain should go ahead with Brexit and 59% of the public think that calls for a second referendum are illegitimate.

But while one can…


So now we know, Brexit really does mean Brexit.

But without labouring everything Mrs May said or didn’t say and the attendant hysteria of some about tumbling towards a rock hard Brexit, the speech deserves closer attention.

I need to say up front that there is a risk of over-doing the textual analysis but I’m going to do it anyway. It’s all we have, but it means what I’m about to write is still just a theory not a fact.

The really interesting section of the speech was her twelfth objective (of twelve) entitled “A smooth, orderly Brexit” — an…


We may have reached the point where we can declare Soft Brexit via EFTA/EEA officially “friendless” among Leavers, after the great Helena Morrissey (and former friend of the “Flexcit” plan) came out in favour of the government’s emerging strategy.

The idea of Soft Brexit (if not the term) has been a long time in the making, extending back into the annals of eurosceptic history. There has been a vein of euroscepticism calling for the UK to rejoin EFTA and settle on an open market-based solution for many years. …


OK, so “it was Vote Leave wot won it”.

Well it wasn’t, of course, but for once let’s not quibble over the suggestion that Leave was always in the lead or indeed that it was the 20% of “liberal Leavers” who took Leave across the 50% winning line.

Let’s at least acknowledge the truth that Vote Leave, mainstream Tory euroscepticism and its estranged UKIP sibling were the predominant voices for Leave during the referendum campaign. Because let’s be frank, in the final analysis there was little to choose between all of the above. Differences such that they existed at all…


Throughout the referendum campaign I was promoting a position dubbed ‘Liberal Leave’.

The definition of this position is that one isn’t particularly animated by high immigration & free movement AND voted to Leave AND after leaving EU membership would initially accept a UK position in the Single Market (from outside EU membership).

The question hovering around this position has always been: “How many people adopt this position?” The question is especially pertinent given the final result of the EU referendum which was quite close and gave Leave 52% and Remain 48%.

A number of opinion polls were taken during and…


After an extraordinary morning in British politics, I’m very clear about my preference for the next prime minister.

It’s Theresa May.

And as I’m a Leaver, you may be wondering why. Surely the next leader must be a Leaver?

Well no. That had previously been very likely and to be honest, I had expected that to be the outcome. But now everything has changed and here is my reasoning:

  • Theresa May’s speech was brilliant. She totally caught the mood and put down clear markers for where Britain goes next. That leadership thing.
  • She made it crystal clear and in no…


Well it’s all kicking off as the Brexit vote prompts a mass of chickens to come home to roost, some after many years ‘simmering’ in the background.

Let’s see what we have got so far…

  1. The 43 years of awkwardness and semi-detachedness inside the EU have been dealt a mortal blow.
  2. The truth-stretching David Cameron is going and so is the EU’s/his appalling renegotiation deal that proved an insult to the country and to his own party (hence far more MPs declaring for Leave than anyone realistically expected) .
  3. George Osborne’s alleged emergency budget right after a Brexit vote has…


Big news. A Yougov poll has just been published in the Telegraph showing a lot of support for the EEA (‘Norway’) Option.

Before hitting the detail, let’s just do a quick reminder.

The EEA Option has been gradually and quietly gaining momentum since March, when the Telegraph first reported that senior civil servants in Whitehall were seriously looking at it. This was recently repeated on the BBC’s Newsnight programme.

The option, which would see Britain initially moving to a Norway-like single-market-based position outside the EU, is actually a stage in a broader multi-step roadmap of gradual disengagement from the EU


This went up on the German site FAZ.net on 10th June [German language]. http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/ttip-und-freihandel/bundestag-darf-bei-freihandelsabkommen-ceta-nicht-mitreden-14279991.html

Everyone involved in the EU Referendum debate should read it.

This is my translation, using the power of ‘O’ Level German and Google Translate. It looks absolutely crucial to the Remain argument about the ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership’, or ‘TTIP’ for short.

This is what it says…

“The European Commission is on a collision course with the EU member states over the highly controversial free trade agreements with the United States and Canada. The EU authority wants the agreement with Canada — CETA — to…

Roland Smith

Brexitologist. euexit@gmail.com #Brexit

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