
The Fall of the Roman Empire and the End of Nigeria
“We learn from history that we do not learn from history.”
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
The lessons of history are writ large. From the Holocaust, to Hiroshima, to the false accusation of the possession of “Weapons of Mass Destruction” levelled against Saddam Hussein by the United States in order to justify Iraq’s invasion in 2003, lessons abound. However, despite the advancement of science and technology and the capability we now have more than ever before of searching our past, connecting the dots to the present and predicting the future, we are often caught repeating the same mistakes of yore. Several maxims aptly capture this ignominy, my favourite is by the great German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel that’s says, “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.”
History is replete with scores of events that validate Hegel’s maxim, some are so uncanny they read like a déjà vu. The Americans armed the Muhadajeen in Afghanistan against the invading Soviet Union in the 80’s (you remember Sylvester Stallone in Rambo III, don’t you?) but without putting certain measures in place afterwards, a vacuum was created which partly led to the rise of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Fast forward to 2011 and the Arab Spring; the American’s again supported the revolutions in the Middle East with military aid to some of the rebels against the ‘dictators’ but without any workable post revolution strategy, ISIS was born. Many people might also not remember that the much vilified Saddam Hussein and his Iraq Ba’ath Party were once the darling of the US/CIA during the Iran-Iraq war.
Back home, the recurring reasons given by successive coupists’ for overthrowing sitting governments had always been the same, corruption. Each government it seems, only tried to outdo the previous one in pilfering our common till. At present we are witnessing yet another case of history repeating itself with the unfolding drama that is the handling of President Muhammadu Buhari’s health crisis. His handlers seem completely oblivious of former President Umaru Yar’Adua’s case.
All these however, pale into insignificance when compared to the sheer magnitude of what fate awaits us as a country if we keep traveling on our present route. The destination is the end of Nigeria as we know her. This conclusion stems from lessons the fall of the Roman Empire depicts; the reasons for its fall are so remarkably similar to our circumstances, it is unsettling, to say the least.
Historians do not unanimously agree to the reasons for the fall of the Roman Empire; there are hundreds of reasons by hundreds of historians. However, a review of several of these reasons show a common thread which historian Evan Andrews has narrowed down in his article “8 Reasons why Rome fell,” Four of the reasons caught my eyes because they seem to be playing out in Nigeria this very moment.
Reason 1; Invasions by Barbarian tribes.
Andrews writes that “The most straightforward theory for Western Rome’s collapse pins the fall on a string of military losses sustained against outside forces. Rome had tangled with Germanic tribes for centuries, but by the 300s ‘barbarian’ groups like the Goths had encroached beyond the Empire’s boarders.” Nigeria’s Federal Government and at least one state government have described the murderous herdsmen ravaging most of Nigeria as foreigners in the mould of the ancient Barbarians, and as they continue unchecked, their activities pose a major risk to the security of, and continuous existence of Nigeria. My earlier article, “The War in Benue State and the Looming Catastrophe” is instructive. The marauding herdsmen are responsible for food insecurity, and their atrocities widening in scope as they are, would eventually lead to a cataclysmic ethno-religious war, the type which would sound the dead knell for Nigeria.
Reason 2: Economic troubles….
Andrews states economic troubles as a major reason why Rome crumbled. Hear him, “Even as Rome was under attack from outside forces, it was also crumbling from within thanks to a severe financial crisis. Constant wars and overspending had significantly lightened imperial coffers, and oppressive taxation and inflation had widened the gap between rich and poor.” Prosecuting the Boko Haram insurgency, IPOB uprising and the perennial Niger Delta militancy have eaten deep into the financial resources of Nigeria. The extent of this we may never know precisely due to our appalling record keeping. What is certain is that the government is neck deep in financial crisis. The Federal government toils to meets its payroll and a lot of state governments owe workers several months’ salaries. Like the Romans, the Nigerian government is looking to shore up its financial base with increased taxation. While this seems a logical step to take, continuous mismanagement of the economy will lead to a widening of the gap between the rich and the poor, reducing productivity and inducing the sort of crisis that leads to the collapse of nations.
Reason 3: Overexpansion…
The Roman Empire at its height stretched from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the Euphrates River in the Middle East. This expansion according to Andrews was another reason for its fall. He argues that, “With such a vast territory to govern, the empire faced an administrative and logistical nightmare. Even with their excellent road systems, the Romans were unable to communicate quickly or effectively enough to manage their holdings.” The parallel here is with the expansion of Nigeria’s population. At present the Nigerian population, based on the latest United Nations’ estimate, is 192,010,372. With the inability of the government to cater for this teeming population, cries of marginalization will rent the air and the tendency for self-determination amongst the various sections will increase. This is already manifesting with the rise of IPOB. With poor management of this crisis as it is the case now, there will only be one conclusion, the end of Nigeria.
Reason 4: Government corruption and political instability
This reason is eerily familiar. It reads like a commentary of Nigeria’s present context. This is how Andrews captures it, “If Rome’s sheer size made it difficult to govern, ineffective and inconsistent leadership only served to magnify the problem…. The political rot also extended to the Roman Senate, which failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence. As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership.” What more parallel is there to draw? It is already there in bold relief!
Good Old History.
If the great Roman Empire which lasted for centuries was brought to its knees by these reasons then there is a serious need to fear for Nigeria, which at less than 60, is faced with similar problems.
However, just as history draws parallels which portend doom, it also offers a lifeline which we may choose to take. David Cameron the former British Prime Minister had such a choice recently when he was faced with calls for a Brexit. He would have studied how former Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson in 1975 managed the pressure of a similar referendum but he chose not to learn from history and as they say the rest is history. The choices we make today are tomorrow’s history.
IPOB, Arewa Youths and other key actors in today’s Nigeria baying for blood have a choice to make, they might learn from our rich history of which the ubiquitous Biafra Civil War looms large or like Cameron, they may choose not to. One thing is certain, good old “history”, like Mark Twain’s famous quote says “never repeats itself but it rhymes.”
