Scotland’s Currency question
Nothing more depressing than watching people be completely disingenuous about it on BBC Question Time. Here are five reasons why.
Well, that was depressing. That is last night, when Question Time decided to focus its last show of the season (rightly so) on the biggest political story of the year: The Scottish Independence referendum. I label the whole thing depressing because, while this is a worthy and commendable decision, the panel consisted of four people that had obviously heard the arguments but were in no position to talk in depth about them (with the notable exception of the excellent Joan Burnie, the Daily record columnist and agony aunt, that was both eloquent and brutally ‘on the money’ with her opinions).
A million things can be said about the arguments heard from the panel and the audience, but we can split them down the middle to A)the Yes campaigns sometimes naive general message that B) allows for the No campaign’s cynical approach to flourish in people’s minds. The one thing I hated the most though, that infuriated me, was Alan Savage’s (Orion groups founder and CEO) display of the really bad economics that dominate the No campaign’s spin, and specifically the currency question. Oh my god, the nonsense they are talking. Here are five simple points for you:
1. An Economy is not the same as a family/business
Mr. Savage (who donated £150.000 to the No campaign’s coffers) started with the classic fallacy, introduced by Westminster and austeritarians around Europe, that running an economy has anything in common with how you run a business or a household. Newsflash: It really, really doesn’t. That means that ‘an economy’ doesn't need to walk up to a bank manager and convince them of their business plan nor does it have to necessarily borrow to fund its plans. An economy can for example, print money and voila. The UK has been doing this consistently for the past few years (see quantitative easing), so please save me the rant about its negative effects, the stock market would be nowhere right now without that cash.
2. Scotland will almost definitely be allowed to keep the Pound.
I say “almost” bar the chance that Mr.Osborne and Mr.Cameron are absolute nutters, which they aren’t. The Pound without Scotland would face significant challenges and the Chancellor knows this. It would simply not be as sound sans Scotland’s oil, energy, financial sector and food industry. In the case Scotland keeps the Pound, it of course won't be able to print money to get out of sticky situations, like the UK is right now. But that also means that they will have the Bank of England behind them, so Mr. Savage’s (and the No campaign’s) concerns are futile. But this is a really bad deal for Scotland… Why would anyone want the Pound, sentimental reasons aside? More on this point later.
3. If not, there are other, fully legitimate options
Specifically, there are two quite ‘trivial’ options if Scotland doesn’t get to keep the Pound. After an initial set-up cost, easily covered if along with the currency Scotland sheds its share of the UK debt, it can have a currency pegged to the Pound, an option which gives it the same nominal value as the currency the rUK will be using. Here’s a brief explanation of what that means in terms of business transactions:
“Currency pegs allow importers and exporters to know exactly what kind of exchange rate they can expect for their transactions, simplifying trade. This in turn helps to curb inflation and temper interest rates, thus allowing for increased trade.” — Link
In fact, Scotland could be pegging its currency at 9/10's of the pounds value or even lower (like Switzerland is currently doing with the Euro) and boost its exports.
4. The pound is a bad deal for Scotland anyway
As I mentioned above, why would anyone want the damned thing anyway? The pound is really, really expensive right now, for no reason at all, other than that a lot of people around the globe are using it to trade in the City of London. That means bad news for the rest of the economy, being crowded out by the financial sector. Again. In fact, the last time it was this expensive, was before the 2008 crash. And that’s not just me saying it, it was front page news in the Financial Times just last week.
The UK’s industry is losing out because of this and so will be Scotland’s. Scotland doesn't need such an expensive currency and would be doing better without the Pound (or the Euro for that matter). I'm sure there are probably technical issues there that escape me (please enlighten me, reader), but it really isn't as dramatic as the No campaign would have you think. The opposite is. I come from a country partially ruined because of how expensive the Euro is. You don’t want that, trust me.
5. A 100% Scottish currency is not a bad idea at all
A free-floating Scottish currency would be risky business in the short-term, but the only sensible solution in the long-term. A tool to shape your economic policy just the way you want it. Assuming that you can't make international deals if you don't have the pound is ludicrous. If anything, Scotland is losing money right now because of how expensive the pounds is. Following Mr.Savage’s thinking, one could legitimately walk up to a bank manager and say “look, I’ll boost my exports by xx%” and that would definitely do the trick.
A currency’s value is based on the value of a country’s economy, not Darling’s weaponised pessimism or Savage’s lack of knowledge. Anyhow, I just wanted to make this point and ask of outlets/journos everywhere to please stop parading the bad economics of the No campaign as “sensible”. They are wrong, patronising and completely useless. Even the accusation that the SNP haven’t made up their mind on the currency debate is nonsense: They are asked to respond to Westminster’s lunacy. What do you say to someone threatening to shoot his own leg off?
This is an exciting time for British and Scottish politics. Let’s not mire it with pseudo-facts, spin, lies and every other disgusting habit Westminster indulges in these days. There is enough to debate without making stuff up.
More observations from Scotland (where I'm currently based) coming soon.


Suggested reading:
“Scotland should relish the chance to run its own currency”, by Adam Ramsay & Peter McColl for Open Democracy.