The most transformative technologies in human history did not just gradually improve in a linear fashion. They made the previously impossible possible and then rapidly developed in a non-linear fashion. The invention and development of these technologies are non-linearities. Albert Wenger describes non-linearities as expanding the space of the possible for humanity in his book World After Capital. Non-linearities do not just bring a single benefit to society, they unlock possibilities that can usher in an unpredictable number of additional benefits and new challenges that can drastically change how societies function. We have already seen a number of such non-linearities throughout history — many that are continuing to develop today.
Heavier-than-air Powered Flight
Humans dreamt of flying as a form of transportation for centuries. In 1903, the Wright brothers transformed that dream into a reality with the first heavier-than-air powered flight. In World After Capital, Albert Wenger cites heavier-than-air powered flight as an example of a non-linearity and we can observe its rapid, non-linear development in the graph below of non-commercial flight distance records over time.
From the beginning of human civilization through 1902, heavier-than-air powered flight was impossible. In 1903, the Wilbur brothers flew 39 meters in the first non-commercial heavier-than-air powered flight. In 2006, 103 years later, Steven Fosset flew 41,476.46 kilometers. We could not fly for centuries, then all of a sudden not only could we do it, but we got really good at it really fast. This was a clear non-linearity. Technological progress also unlocked the possibility of international commercial aviation which allowed for nomadic lifestyles and increased cross-cultural interactions due to ease of international travel, in addition to other benefits not initially associated with the invention of heavier-than-air powered flight. At the same time, these benefits came with new challenges. As the commercial aviation industry grows rapidly, so does the amount of CO2 emissions contributing to climate change. The environmental impact of commercial aviation is one of the challenges that society must tackle if it wants to continue reaping the benefits made possible by heavier-than-air powered flight.
Human Genome Sequencing
After years of DNA sequencing research, scientists published a draft of the first whole human genome sequence in 2001. Since then, we have seen rapid, non-linear development in genome sequencing technology which can be observed in a graph of the falling estimated costs to sequence a human-sized genome (note: not the cost of specific projects) published by the National Human Genome Research Institute.
From the beginning of human civilization through 2000, sequencing a whole human genome was impossible. In 2001, a draft of the whole human genome sequence was published, and sequencing a human-sized genome cost approximately $95,263,072. In October 2015, sequencing a human-sized genome cost approximately $1,245. We could not sequence a whole human genome for centuries, then all of a sudden not only could we do it, but we got really good at it really fast. Once again, we observe a clear non-linearity.
In the span of 14 years, human genome sequencing transitioned from a research project to a feasible medical practice for certain consumers. Given its rapidly falling costs, genome sequencing could soon be widely available to all consumers. More sequencings would result in more data which would allow scientists to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the human genome unlocking possibilities like personalized medicine. From this possibility, we could see benefits such as improved preventative care, cheaper and faster clinical trials, and cures for previously incurable diseases. Moreover, we could see broader social effects, similar to the social effects of heavier-than-air powered flight, as a result of a drastic change in how people think about their health. However, like with the development of heavier-than-air powered flight, any benefits made possible by advances in genome sequencing technology will not come without new challenges. How will regulators oversee drug development when there are hundreds of variants targeting different types of genome sequences? How will researchers use genome sequence data of patients to further research without compromising patient privacy? We are still in the early days of genome sequencing technology, so it remains to be seen what solutions will emerge to tackle these challenges and what other possibilities technology advances will unlock.
Going Forward
Non-linearities benefit society by making the previously impossible possible. They also benefit society by unlocking possibilities as they rapidly develop in a non-linear fashion. These possibilities emerge over a period of time and bring both benefits and challenges, making it difficult to predict how they will actually affect or change society. The Wilbur brothers probably could not have predicted the impact their first heavier-than-air powered flight would have on consumer lifestyle or cross-cultural interactions. They also probably could not have predicted the environmental impact of their invention. Both benefits and challenges naturally arise from non-linearities as they expand the space of the possible for humanity. The challenges are hard and solving them are a necessary step in embracing non-linearities, but once we do we will be able to take full advantage of benefits that we previously could not have even imagined. I am excited to watch non-linearities continue to develop and see new non-linearities emerge.
