Zion Williamson, 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 analysis
Zion Williamson, the hottest prospect since LeBron, needs no introduction. Although his Prizm base PSA 10 might need some explaining… In this article, I will be taking a look at the Zion 2019 Panini Prizm base PSA 10 over the last 8 months. With the Los Angeles Lakers winning the title on October 11, 2020 it marked the start of the off-season. This would be the first official off-season since the sports card boom in March of 2020. Although it would not be Zion’s rookie season, it would be the lead up to his first officially healthy off-season. The emergence of Brandon Ingram averaging 24 points in his first season as an all star, paired with a healthy Zion, and a photoshopped Pelicans instagram post of Zion working out had the hype train at full steam ahead.
Using Card Ladder sales history, we can see the anticipation build in real time with the season approaching. Immediately after the finals (October 11th) the card was selling for $528, a little over a month later on November 12th, the card was selling for $660. For the next month or so, the card was consistent around $660 with a few outliers here and there. In Zion’s second preseason game vs the Milwaukee Bucks he scored 31 points and 9 rebounds in a landslide victory which in turn caused all hell to break loose. As you can see with the massive spike, the card was now selling for $915 with it peaking at $1,010 on December 22nd. By January 30th, the Prizm base 10 was already down to the mid $600s [1]. The drop was not due to performance as in the month of January he averaged 26 points and 7 rebounds on 60% shooting [2]. As frustrating as this can be for Zion’s collectors and investors, seeing Zion play at a star level with stagnation in Prizm PSA 10 prices there are some valid reasons as to why this might be happening.
Reason #1: Population Report
When people point to mass production or the potential return of a junk wax era in the card industry, this is the card they point to more often than not. With over 30,000 of the Zion Prizm base graded by PSA alone, and 17,086 being PSA 10s there is almost a never ending supply of this card. There is also no end in sight, with over 160 Prizm PSA 10s added to the pop report today alone. To put it in perspective how high of a pop report this is, you could add the 2017 Prizm base PSA 10 pop reports of Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, DeAaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Lonzo, John Collins, OG Anunoby, Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, Malik Monk, and Derrick White together and still end up with Zion having a higher pop report of 572… The third highest Prizm base PSA 10 pop report is currently 1,631 less than Zion (Ja Morant). There are only 3 guys with Prizm base pop reports over 10,000, Luka, Zion, and Ja [1].
Reason #2: It was too high to begin with…
Zion at the end of the day even with a pop report of 17,006, this is still the second highesting selling Prizm base of all players since 2017. Only five Prizm base 10’s since 2017 sell for over $300 and only three sell for over $500. Zion is in great company in the $500+ club with MVP candidate Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum who has lead his team twice to the Conference finals in 3 seasons. Despite Tatum’s playoff accolades, regular season statstics, and playing for one of the most historical franchises in all of sports. Zion is still holding strong at over $100 more than Tatum despite being on a 30–36 team (11th seed).
As you can see in the chart above just about every 2017-present Prizm base PSA 10 leading up to this season saw their prices peak and have slowly dropped to early off season prices. So it should not come as a shock for Zion investors to see the dip as seemingly every other player experienced this, including Luka Doncic. Luka’s Prizm base 10 during the same time as the Zion’s peak was up to $1979+ and is currently at $1045 [1]. This dip was not just exclusive to Zion, so Zion investors should not feel like this dip or stagnation is exclusive to Zion as he has had the most stable Prizm base PSA 10 amongst the ultra modern rookies over the last 4 plus months which I will cover later.
Reason #3: The Win Column
The one thing about the Pelicans is they aren’t lacking talent, yet seemingly they cannot put it together in the win column. In an era judged off playoff success and how many rings you have, it is a glaring issue that with Ingram averaging 24 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists on 46% shooting with Zion’s 27 points and 7 rebounds they are still 30 and 36 [3]. Two all star caliber players surrounded by young talent in Jaxson Hayes, Kira Lewis, Lonzo Ball, and N. Alexander-Walker as well as great veterans and locker room guys in JJ Redick (formerly), Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, and James Johnson. This is clearly not a talent problem, nor do they have a dysfunctional front office as David Griffin has shown a great ability to draft and add players despite being a small market in Cleveland and now in New Orleans. The easy scapegoat is Stan Van Gundy, who has not had a 45+ win season since 2010 in Orlando. His Piston days were less than memorable with 1 playoff appearance in 4 years in the eastern conference… The main reason why Stan Van Gundy was brought in was because of his coaching style. In Orlando, he not only led the league in three point attempts, but also made threes and three point percentage [4]. Although heavily ridiculed at the time for his coaching style, it proved to be revolutionary. The physical presence of Dwight Howard would command double teams allowing him to kick it out to the plethora of lethal shooters. In addition to this, Howard and Jameer Nelson had a chemistry like no other developing a deadly pick and roll which often resulted in lobs or open shots due to the help man switching over. This offensive play style not only made Jameer Nelson an all star and had Howard finish top 3 in MVP voting but also took the Magic to the NBA finals. The Pelicans front office thought Stan was a match made in heaven, not only would he now be coaching in the three point era but also giving him another physically dominant scoring presence around the rim. Unfortunately it has done the opposite, the Pelicans rank dead last in three point field goal attempts and makes despite being ranked 11th in overall field goal attempts [5]. This can be attributed to a plethora of things from lack of spot up shooters to Zion and Ingram loving to play iso ball. It also does not help that the Pelicans play little to no defense. The entire starting lineup and two leading bench players in minutes all have defensive ratings over 111, which is horrible. For comparison, the Knicks and Lakers have had a combined 38 players on the roster this year and not 1 player has had a defensive rating above 110.9. It is rare for a team to have two top contributing players with defensive ratings that high let alone the top 7 players on a team [6].
Final Thoughts/Conclusion:
Zion investors should be happy where the Zion Prizm base PSA 10 stands today, since 1/26 it has had the highest percentage increase of all 7 Prizm base PSA 10s compared throughout this analysis. Although a gain of .76% is nothing to brag about, you can see how bad things could be. This card has been extremely consistent for months, which is hard to say about any card let alone a Prizm base. Prizm base rookies are notorious for fluctuating in price and being the least consistent of the ultra modern rookie cards. Considering the circumstances around him (11th seed) and this card (pop report), what is happening right now should be viewed as the best case scenario. Expect a possible drop in price if they do not make the play in tournament. Currently 2 games back from the 10th seed play in, with Ingram out it will be an uphill battle.
Authors Note: I excluded rookies 2012-2016 due to the fact of Prizm production and grading habits of collectors/investors. In 2017, the base grading revolution began as we started to see the rise of retail and Prizm as the premier non high end basketball product. For example, the pop report of 2019 Prizm basketball is higher than all 2012 products combined.
Sources:
https://app.cardladder.com/ladder/card/SLHIYTZZsE03H5uRFB1P?q=prizm%20base
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4395628/zion-williamson
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NOP/2021.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/coaches/vangust99c.html
https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/team/_/table/offensive/sort/avgPoints/dir/desc
