Solving the North Korea Problem by Applying the Wedge Theory

Last week, North Korea launched the 5th nuclear test, the 2nd time of this year. North Korea nuke problem is the most critical problem in the Northeast Asia. North Korea predominantly relies on the ideological and material supports of China. The United States should apply the wedge theory to split China and North Korea and seek cooperation with China on solving this problem.

Wedge Theory During the Cold War

The Wedge Theory was introduced during the 1950s in order to alienate the Communist China from the Soviet Union. The United States isolated and sanctioned China and forced Beijing to demand on the Soviet Union’s aids for military defense and economic development. The duty of supporting a state with 600 million people would be a heavy burden for the Soviet Union, back then still tried to recuperate from the WWII, and forced Moscow to withdraw economic aids to China

The negotiation of Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance already showed that Stalin was reluctant to support Mao. After the death of Stalin, Beijing and Moscow enjoyed a brief honeymoon until the openly split in 1960. Although the most significant reason was the ideological split and personal disdain between Mao and Khrushchev, the Wedge Theory also contributed to the Sino-Soviet Split. As the Soviet Union increased the aids, Moscow demanded Beijing’s obligation to comply the Soviet policies. Moscow could not tolerate Beijing’s reluctant on supporting Soviet foreign policies and attacking Khrushchev’s ideology. In 1960, after a major ideological conflict on the Bucharest conference, the Soviet Union stopped all economic aid to China.

China’s Attitude Change

After the test, Beijing released a harsh warning. The statement claims that China “did not receive any notification prior to the test”. Beijing strongly denounces North Korea for “launching the nuclear test despite the international criticisms” and declares that “any unilateral action is a one-way road.” China also urges the North Korean government to “obey the UN resolution.”

It is easy to discover China’s attitude change by comparing the tones and the usage of words in the five official statements released by Beijing. China gradually adopts a harsher attitude toward North Korea. The first three statements include the phrase “each side to remains calm.” This phrase warns possible military intervention from the United States and South Korea. However, this phrase does not appear in the two statements released this year. The first three statements defined the nuclear test as an action that “might damage the regional peace and security.” The later two statements defined it as an action that “will damage the regional peace and security.” This change of word illustrates the serious consequence brought by North Korea. China also urges the Pyongyang to “obey the UN resolution” in the most recent statement. This is the first time Beijing uses such phrase. The UN resolution refers to the sanction against North Korea passed in this March. China has been firmly supporting this sanction and even stop supplying coal, metal, and petroleum to Korea.

Splits Between Beijing and Pyongyang

Although Beijing and Pyongyang share similar socialist ideology, the relation between two sides is not nearly as amiable as the official media propagated. A deep ideological gap exists between China and North Korea. Just like CCP and CPSU, the Worker’s Party of Korea was not as monolithic as an iron plate. There are several factions existed during the 1950s. After the Korean War, Kim Il-Sung purged different factions within the party in order to consolidate his power. One faction he purged, the Yan’an Faction, could trace its friendship and deep connection with the CCP back to the Yan’an era. China was fractious with Kim Il-Sung and even planned to overthrow and replace him. In 1992, North Korea felt betrayed when China established the normal diplomatic relationship with South Korea.

A strong sense of insecurity exists in North Korea. The government realizes that their Chinese friend is not reliable; Beijing is ready to betray them for greater interests. This insecurity pushes North Korea to develop the nuclear weapon. The decision-making class thinks nuclear weapon can deter any outside threat and protect the regime. The lack of support also forces North Korea to take irresponsible and unilateral actions.

Beijing has been irate by the irresponsibility of Pyongyang. The fraternal relationship already ceased to exist. China has been anxious about the unilateral actions by North Korea and fears that such irresponsible actions might drag China into the second Korean War. The instability of the Korean Peninsula sparks by North Korea directly threatens the China’s national security. North Korean soldiers crossing the border and conducting crimes in China. Pyongyang also prints fake RMB and disturbs the financial market of China.

Driving the Wedge

Apart of fraternal friendship, the current China-North Korean relation bases on mutual needs: North Korea needs China to survive; China needs North Korea as a buffer zone. China doesn’t want South Korea, a state with US troops, to border the vital Manchuria industrial region. The United States is the overwhelming power in the Northeast Asia and China needs North Korea to balance the influence of the United States and direct the attention of Washington from Beijing to Pyongyang.

China tolerates North Korea in order to deter threats from the United States; however, Beijing won’t if North Korea possesses a greater threat to China than the United States. North Korea outputs crimes, chaos, and fake RMB to China. Beijing also fears about the possibility of North Korea’s unilateral actions pulling China into an unprepared war. The nuclear test also stimulates radical reactions from the west, such as the placement of THAAD anti-missile system into South Korea and the deployment of B-2 bombers and F-35 fighter. Pyongyang can also coerce the international community, especially China, with the nuclear weapon and nuclear test.

The United States need to drive a wedge between China and North Korea by drafting and enforcing an even harsher UN sanction. This sanction must cut off all industrial supplies to North Korea and follow by UN investigation teams to ensure no trade under the table with North Korea. The United States and South Korea, two major food suppliers of North Korea, can further decrease, or even stop, the food supply to North Korea. This UN sanction forces North Korea to seek more aids from Beijing and creates a critical problem for China. While enforcing the sanction will inevitably deepen the cleavage between Beijing and Pyongyang, not enforcing the sanction shows that Beijing’s condemnation of North Korea’s nuclear test is a falsehood. Supporting North Korean’s worldwide unpopular misbehavior harms China’s image of a responsible world power. Pyongyang will react strongly toward the sanction with radical steps, thus ignores the obligation of complying China. Beijing and North Korea will conflicts similar to the Sino-soviet split in the 1960s.

It is important to realize that the radical actions by the North Korea only accelerates its collapse. The deeper Pyongyang continues on the one-way road; the less support and more criticisms North Korea receives from the international community. The radical and unilateral actions by North Korea only increases the disdain from both Beijing and Washington and further isolate itself.

The common goal of stopping North Korea’s misbehaviors opens the gate for cooperation between the United States and China. In order to solve the North Korea problem, the United States needs China’s support. China is not only the biggest supporter of North Korea but also a responsible major power. China bases its policy toward North Korea on the calculation of national security and interests. China still supports North Korea because China believes that the United States exerts more threat than North Korea. The United States must make North Korea, not the US, the biggest threat of China. The US can decrease the level of threat to China’s comfort zone in exchange for China’s unreserved support and help on solving the North Korea problem. While China has been unease about the deployment of THAAD system into South Korea, the United States can pull out THAAD in exchange for China’s support and enforcement on the stricter sanction.

The United States demands China’ vital support for successful regime change within North Korea. Washington can acquire Beijing’s allowance of the unification of the peninsula by South Korea, either by internal regime collapse or military intervention, by offering China the promise of withdrawing all American troops from the peninsula after the unification and nuclear disbarment of Korea peninsula. The United States should never try to confront the large PLA ground force; in another hand, the chance of war between China and Korea is slight. The United States doesn’t need a large army to guard China on the Korean Peninsula. A large ground force on the Korean peninsula only increases Beijing’s level insecurity and deteriorate Sino-US relation. The unification increases Beijing’s level of security because China doesn’t need to face American troops across the border and worries about the nuclear test. The regime change not only increases the security of both Beijing and Washington but also establishes a precedent for cooperation between China and the United States.

As we learned from Iraq, unilateral actions for regime change is expensive therefore unwise for the United States. Washington is not the all-mighty power center of the world. The United States needs support from China for solving the North Korea problem once for all. The sanction is a wedge between China and North Korea. Negotiation and bargaining with Beijing will effectively win over the unreserved support of China on the unification of Korea peninsula and lead to the peace of Northeast Asia.