The House of Hauser, Part 2
Read Part 1 of the House of Hauser to understand why teams will hunt for the ‘next Sam Hauser’, how valuable he is, and how not to chase role players.
As opposed to overpaying free agents who a) are, or b) resemble Hauser in any way (possibly even his younger brother Joey), teams may attempt to find similar prospects through the draft. Hauser went undrafted after an extremely successful NCAA career that spanned four seasons, two schools, a redshirt season, and 126 games.
My focus is to isolate players who most closely fit Hauser’s profile. This practice is relevant and necessary to me, as observing comparisons of NCAA prospects/NBA players with few/no statistical similarities is inefficient.
We can apply Hauser’s college career as a point of comparison for all 2024 prospects to see if enough boxes are checked by any prospects this year that have the chance of being ‘the next Sam Hauser.”
Let’s emphasize what these boxes are!
Height: Small shooters and tall shooters aren’t of the same value as NBA team building is concerned. Hauser’s 6'7 frame and +2 wingspan are significant tools. An inch difference in height/wingspan/standing reach for a player can allow notable schematic benefits on defense, and a smaller player with Hauser’s skillset and production as a prospect may not be as successful. Kyle Guy, Brady Heslip, Adam Flagler, and L.J. Cryer apply.
Impact: Reaching and maintaining an Offensive Box Plus-Minus of over 6 in a college career of over 3900 minutes is an extremely rare feat, with only 19 players in the Bart era doing so. No 2024 prospect falls within this group. The closer, the better. Hauser posted a career 2 defensive box-plus minus, but as this is a less reliable stat than OBPM, we will only account for it slightly to get within the ballpark of defensive ability.
Volume/Experience: Hauser playing as much college basketball as he did helped to emphasize his profile. Within his 700 three-point attempts, we can assume a variety of defensive coverages and openness on his shots. This analysis would be much trickier to assert for a freshman who didn’t attempt 160 3PA in their single season (ex. Reed Sheppard).
Opponent Strength: Making as many shots as Hauser did against Big East and ACC opponents is more valuable than making them versus Mountain Valley or Big Sky opponents.
SAMPLE SIZE TOO SMALL
Ben Humrichous, Evansville
July 2002, 5.3 OBPM, 6'9, 38% on 435 3PT attempts (50.8 NCAA 3PAr)
The Sell: After two seasons at NAIA Huntington in Indiana, a transfer to Evansville has him on some NBA radars. Over his 23 games this season, he’s posted a 5.3 OBPM/-0.3 DBPM (possibly a team talent issue). 62% at the rim and almost 47% on non-rim 2s are impressive marks. 3.5 BLK% gives a bit of favor to him not being a lost cause as a defender.
Why Not: One season of low-major NCAA hoops won’t be enough for me to assert that Humrichous can be Hauser at the NBA level next season. As Humrichous entered the transfer portal for the 2024 season, one more NCAA season seems possible. Hauser played his rookie NBA season at age 24, so two seasons playing in the G-League or otherwise and gaining more volume (and increasing his already impressive efficiency) would be amazing.
This development could even be done with the College Park Skyhawks, so the Hawks could finally call up one of their affiliate players for the 2026 season. Outside of COVID-19 games, the Atlanta Hawks haven’t called up a single College Park Skyhawk since the team arrived five seasons ago.
Riley Minix, Morehead State
September 2000, 6'7, 6.7 OBPM, 28 USG%, 39% from 3 on 696 NAIA/NCAA attempts (33.6 NCAA 3PAr)
The Sell: Arguably the most heralded sub-D1 player of the past few seasons, taking home NAIA All-American honors in 2022. The transition to Morehead State came with even more success. 6.7 offensive BPM led the OVC by a significant margin and was named the conference player of the year and tournament MVP. His 28 USG% is significantly higher than any Hauser season, entailing that there could be room to get him off the ball in the NBA and increase efficiency. His NCAA/NAIA combined 3-point shooting is impressive and shows he can shoot at volume, even as the primary focus of an offense.
Why Not: Minix’s game at the collegiate level is not similar to Hauser’s. If a team were to draft Minix and not utilize his ability to slash (19 dunks, 77% at the rim this season) and even make non-rim 2s at a 51% clip on 100+ attempts, it would be a disservice to his game. The lack of high-level competition makes his translation harder to discern, especially as a 23-year-old.
GETTING WARMER
Kam Jones, Marquette
Feb 2002, 6'5, career 5.5 OBPM, 38% from 3 on 616 attempts, 59.5 3PAr
The Sell: Jones’ 5.5 OBPM is the 2nd highest of any prospect in the group, showing lots of general impact on that end. Attempting nearly 14 3PA/100 in his career while shooting 60% on 2-point attempts is unheard of.
Why Not: Being a tall shooter who could measure at 6'4 at the Draft Combine is a tough sell. The difference between 44% and 38% at the NCAA level is significant. Jones is an especially tough prospect to find 1:1 comparisons for, and this will not be one.
Jalen Bridges, Baylor
May 2001, 6'9, career 5.4 OBPM, 36% from 3 on 456 attempts, 52.1 3PAr
The Case: Bridges is the tallest prospect in this field, which is meaningful for implied defensive impact (career 1.6 DBPM is moderate at best for a high-major player, 14 defensive rebounding% is underwhelming, as are his career block/steal #s.) He’s shooting 40% from 3 on five attempts per game this season, which is promising yet pedestrian for this conversation. I’m not generally his biggest fan, but his positive traits and somewhat impactful performance require mention.
Why Not: As an older senior, Bridges is getting up only 9.6 3PA per 100 possessions, which would be a career-low for a few prospects on this list. It’s harder to assert that Bridges will significantly improve as a shooter regarding accuracy and volume to the point where he returns a Hauser-like value.
The Hauser Hopefuls
The final three prospects have the best chance for their current skillsets to translate directly into Hauser’s role with the Celtics, with no drastic changes in process or skill developments needed. As pure three-point shooters, I doubt they will match Hauser’s impact today just by the rarity of his success/background, but each brings additional skills that could close the difference.
Note that Hauser, as it currently stands, has returned the equivalent of a first-round pick’s value as an undrafted free agent. Replicating the value will be much more challenging than replicating the role. Kam Jones or Riley Minix could return more value than any of these players, but I would be surprised if shooting six threes per game and applying minimal rim pressure was the route.
3) Drake’s Tucker DeVries
December 2002, 6'7, 5.2 career OBPM, 35.6% from 3 on 672 attempts, 48.3 3PAr
(UPDATE: DeVries will transfer to West Virginia for his senior season following his coach/father’s hiring)
DeVries has functioned on-ball much more frequently with his counterparts on this list during his career so far, and his (assumed) eventual transition off the ball in the NBA is the main selling point for a Hauser comparison. Only 67 percent of his 85 made threes this season were assisted, compared to 90-plus percent of Hauser’s NBA and college threes.
In his final season, if his new ecosystem will allow for more off-ball work, I assume I’ll be able to return to the Hauser Hopefuls. I’ll save my thoughts for then.
2) UCONN‘s Alex Karaban
November 2002, 6'8, 5 OBPM, 40.2% from 3 on 346 attempts, 57.6 3PAr
Of all somewhat high-profile 2024 Draft prospects, I found UConn’s redshirt sophomore Alex Karaban to receive the most Sam Hauser comparisons online this year. This makes sense, as Karaban currently plays the ‘Hauser role’ for the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA championship. His timely semi-transition catch-and-shoot threes to put the Huskies up by double-digits are extremely memorable, though there are a few other aspects of the redshirt sophomore’s game.
Most notably, Karaban is known as one of the better cutters in college basketball. Some of this is directly related to UConn’s offense being high-tech and reliant on off-ball movement. Still, the ability to make these reads makes Karaban and Cam Spencer especially valuable. Karaban is at 73% at the rim on over 125 attempts. Doing this while also shooting 38% from 3 on 200 attempts is impressive and rare, as seen below.
Karaban does not currently impact box scores at any level other than scoring from 3s and rim attempts (and gravity, which isn't a box score stat but I will highlight it still). This is not impressive.
This archetype may be unsustainable as a pro. Pros and cons. Hauser’s career lows for AST% and DREB% are Karaban’s career highs.
As interesting as DeVries and Karaban are, by the end of writing this piece, only one player in the ’24 class truly reminded me of Sam Hauser.
1) Iowa’s Payton Sandfort
July 2002, 6'7, 6.1 OBPM, 36% from 3 on 497 attempts, 61.7 3PAr
Payton Sandfort’s profile is the closest to Sam Hauser’s and therefore has the best chance to return similar value while playing a similar role.
His 2024 season shows the highest upside in potentially impacting games next to NBA stars. Senior Tony Perkins was the primary offensive initiator for the Hawkeyes last season, with moderate success (3.9 OBPM ranked 19th in the Big 10, 25.1 USG% was 11th, and 25.2 AST% was 10th.)
Sandfort’s 7.3 OBPM was the highest on the Hawkeyes by a comfortable margin, while also topping out third in the conference behind Zach Edey, the greatest college player of the 21st century, and gifted 5th-year senior TJ Shannon. A significant portion of this value has stemmed from the ability to attempt 232 three-pointers over 32 games (13.1 3PA/100 possessions ranks 2nd in the conference) and make them at a 37.5% rate. Sandfort’s 3-point rate this season (61.2) is higher than any of Hauser’s first three NCAA seasons.
Playing next to ball-dominant NBA initiators, as opposed to Tony Perkins is a significant gravitational difference. This isn’t to say that Iowa’s offense is not extremely good (16th-ranked adjusted offense via Kenpom, 17th via Bart), but playing next to the most impactful NBA players is substantial.
During his first three seasons at Iowa, Sandfort has attempted 13.9 three-pointers per 100 possessions, shooting 36.2% from behind the arc. Fourteen players over 6'6 have matched or surpassed these figures since 2008, with 31 NBA games to show (all via Temple’s Dionte Christmas.) The issue with players who are this reliant on three-pointers is that they do not affect the game significantly in any other way.
Compare Sandfort to the other three current players to reach 13.5 3PA/100 on 36% or better shooting. His all-around impact outside of shooting is much more significant, ranking first in most stats, with his offensive BPM nearly equaling his counterparts’ combined totals. The ability to attempt this many threes is astounding while also giving the natural indication that with more selectivity to his shot diet, efficiency could increase even more, making Sandfort an even more devastating offensive weapon at the NBA level.
Outside of height and shooting, Sandfort’s most notable stat in the search for the next Hauser-like prospect is his assist-to-turnover ratio. Hauser’s passing skills haven’t been mentioned during this piece, and that’s because they are not notable at all. A career-high 16 AST% as a sophomore was moderately notable but easily forgotten after two seasons below 15% to finish his career. Hauser refuses to turn the ball over. His NCAA career 2.0 AST/TO ratio is identical to Sandfort’s, and he’s only continued this ball security as a professional with 142 assists to only 60 turnovers (2.37 ratio) over 2800+ minutes.
That is the four-Hauser player we made it through 2,500 words for. We can conclude the piece like so. I hope it was enjoyed. I will return to this concept next year or in 5 years retrospectively.
