These are trends I believe will shape the coming years. The signs are everywhere. It is easy to take them for granted as we get immersed in the peculiarities of our daily lives. And eventually get shocked down the line at how different the world is becoming.
I refuse to accept that the world is so complex that we can’t make any sense of it. As I have realized rather interestingly, if you keep digging, the depth of your ignorance will be made known to you but some dots will connect, some insights will emerge and you will conclude also that what Is often masked as complex is more or less a knowledge gap.
1. Inflation:
The global lockdowns accelerated the economic woes of many countries in a fashion most were unprepared for. Till this very moment, the consequences still linger on. Issues such as supply chains being cut off, borders being shut down indefinitely and cash flow being non-existent due to the closure of large scale economic activities all led to dire outcomes in different countries.
One of which being the rise of inflation globally. Which has mostly been caused by governments pumping in "unearned money" into the economy. By either printing a ton of money or borrowing ceaselessly. The way money works is that it has to be attached to some form of value. It cannot be brought into existence without any history of value to it.
Something is sold to get money, you work to get money, stocks have monetary value attached to them, everything around you is of some monetary value. This is the ideal economic situation.
But what happens when unearned money is being pumped incessantly into the system? It reduces the value of the "legitimate money" already in circulation. So when the government keeps printing more money or borrowing ceaselessly, the value of your money depreciates and the prices of everything starts to go up.
You need more money to afford what you could once conveniently buy.
What you then have is a whole population of people who keep working harder with hopes that they save enough to pay their mortgage, clear their debts, buy a house or simply pay their bills.
But rather they end up in a wierd cycle where their efforts are never enough because the money they keep accumulating depreciates fast with every passing day. And it becomes impossible to cover the cost of bills that keep soaring. The real economic nightmare.
In essence, mere hardwork is insufficient to thrive in an inflation bound society. What then is sufficient? You may ask.
Assets. The only thing that matters for those who want to thrive.
As a rule of thumb, avoid saving money with traditional banks. Their models have become outdated and their interest rates a miserable joke. You can denominate your currency in crypto stable coins and further loan it out to the chain for incredible returns. It’s a great way to have your idle cash make more money for you.
Now on Assets,
The question becomes - Who benefits from inflation? When the prices of everything skyrockets, who makes the most money? When you have to pay 2x the usual price for that car or that house or that gadget, who gets richer?
Those who own those assets. This is quite instructive once you understand it. It is why everyone says in popular discourse that the rich keeps getting richer. While others have their life savings lying idle in bank accounts out of the fear of risk, or they spend solely on consumption, the rich do the opposite.
They buy shares in the stock market, coins and tokens in the crypto market, they buy gold, silver, bonds, businesses, real estate, etc. They simply never stop accumulating assets. What then happens is that the failure of governments to make effective economic policies to curb high inflation becomes the proverbial blessing in disguise for the rich.
And you do not need to have millions to start investing in these things. The awareness to begin and the habit is really what matters most. Because if you cannot make the most effective decisions with a small chunk of money, you very likely will do worse if you had a ton. Even if most people like to tell themselves otherwise.
2. Skills > Prestige:
One of the greatest utilities of the internet is that it affords talented people the opportunity to express themselves and become instantly recognizable. Talented in this sense refers to anyone that is excellent at almost anything.
Never was the case in older times. You had to have been born in certain families, go to certain colleges or belong to the right cliques before you were offered a platform of any sort. Today, virtually anyone skilled in some field and can get creative enough on how to showcase said skill can both build a business off it on the internet, connect with people in a similar niche or grow an audience ready to interact with you or patronize what you do.
College degrees will become less relevant with time for this very reason. The go to college - get a job - climb the corporate ladder trope is now an old idea that must be discarded with by *talented people*.
If you are quite skilled at what you do, you should to use the internet to amplify that skillset to create a business. Like Callicrates on Twitter always emphasizes, High value skills that could be learnt are skills that create assets (like real estate developer, software developer), skills you can create a business around (like Affiliate marketing or any skill you can consult on) and skills that buy and sell assets ( like real estate, PE, VC, hedge fund).
3. Learning Jargon:
Technological changes occur more abruptly than ever before. In the past, we had several years in between one advancement to the other. Today, it seems as though everything is happening at the same time. Unprecented technological pace across a variety of sectors simultaneously. While it does appear chaotic to most, the ongoing surge of changes is the biggest opportunity of our lives.
When magazines got more popular in the 1890s in the US, there were few publishers at the time who created a business model and went all in on it. They went ahead to dominate the sector and some still exist today like Time and Fortune magazines making hundred of millions for the brains behind them.
Similarly during the dotcom boom, the few that started building on the internet, now largely control majority of the activities (retail sales, social media, etc) that go on on the internet.
Also recently, when Bitcoin was introduced, the nerds that studied the white paper, attempted to understand what it was and accumulated as many as they could have become the new money elites in the society presently.
All of these paints a similar picture. Big changes are life changing opportunities for the daring and creative. The opportunity cost of ignoring these changes entirely is that you miss out on some of the most defining moments in your lifetime.
Those who will build and dominate the future are presently speaking its “jargon”. This cuts across every innovation. My emphasis on tech is because eventually technology eats deep into everything else.
No one is born with imbued knowledge of how Software, Crypto or NFTs work. Everyone puts in the work to some degree to figure out how it operates. Regardless of their backgrounds or qualifications. What seems complex will remain so if you never attempt to demistify it for yourself.
I have a legal background but notwithstanding, I find myself spending an enormous amount of time trying to make sense of the blockchain technology. Since 2019 till this very moment. Relating with different chains, crypto communities, and just understudying the actions of builders in the space has been quite revealing and rewarding.
And my rationale is this — The blockchain technology is barely over a decade. For a technology that will change how we use and understand money and also serve as a platform for many future innovations, staying on top of it guarantees that you will be early to one or more subsequent innovations. Which can be both life changing and also offer an opportunity to build the future.
It is absolutely impossible to understand any field without a basic understanding of the jargon involved. Once you begin to unravel those bits, you can then piece together the information you come across.
Learning is both pleasurable and rewarding when you are patient enough to let things resonate on your own time.
4. Web3:
- Crypto
One of the greatest advantages of crypto is its inclusiveness. Anyone anywhere can get involved without seeking for permissions. This is why it is considered as the greatest wealth transfer in history by many. If you wanted to invest in early stage startups in Silicon Valley for example, there are investment laws precluding several people from accessing those opportunities regardless of how keen you are on the project or the financial resources in your possession.
This is not the case with Crypto. There are people who build on the blockchain whose identities are unknown. Heck, the creator(s) of Bitcoin is an anonymous character. No one knows who or what Satoshi Nakamoto is. This inclusiveness allows equal opportunity for everyone to have their share of the market.
We are fortunate to experience both the internet and crypto in our lifetime. While the internet can amplify your skillsets, be used as a tool to grow your network and knowledge, crypto presents a unique opportunity as both a hedge to inflation and a path to true wealth.
I wrote the following a long time ago trying to simplify the crypto space for a couple of friends:
Why Bitcoin?
So you are never at the mercy of governments and central Banks as they screw citizens.
Why Ethereum?
So you can bypass the tons of institutions (middle-men) standing between you and the smart contracts you want to execute.
Why De-fi?
The entire banking processes made easy and upgraded with just a few clicks. You never will need a bank.
Why NFTS?
So you can own things on the internet.
Why Crypto?
Freedom, baby. Freedom.
- Web3
Web 1 was about building on the internet. The new shiny object at the time. There were no precedents or references for anyone to learn from. What was done became the initial footprints on the internet.
Web 2 was majorly about Social Networks dominance, applications and largely the convergence of communities on centralized platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and the likes. From 2005 till date.
Web 3 offers something different, which builds on the past history of the internet. Web 3 focuses more on a user controlled internet as opposed to a Web 2 company controlled internet. How is any of these relevant to you?
- Property rights online become more mainstream. The concept of online ownership is still foreign to most users of the internet because of the web 2 orientation. However as more Web3 platforms are being built, more users will realize that they are not mere users or creators on the internet but rather digital owners of the things they put out and create online.
- Web3 also creates a firewall against government control. As the platforms are decentralized and activities cannot be brought to a halt to please certain parties.
- Web3 platforms will also provide for user governance in the form of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations. Where users of platforms will be part of the decision making process of said platform. Where they can all collectively decide on the future and activities of the platform. Thereby preventing issues like Selling user data as we have seen centralized platforms do.
- Web3 platforms will also prioritize user privacy and autonomy where it’s impossible for users to be shut down or taken off because their opinions are contrarian or do not align with popular culture or the preferred political narratives.
- Metaverse
The Metaverse refers to a virtual world. A time where we place more priority on our activities on the web than we do those in “real life”.
A time where the virtual economy becomes much more pronounced. This has begun gradually with gaming platforms that let users have their own characters, build their homes, use in-game currencies and buy in-game properties.
It will continue with the normalization of remote work which was accelerated by the covid lockdowns. And slowly permeate into every corner of society.
Sounds futuristic but how many people would have guessed that we would one day have currencies not backed by any government. Tech continues to push the frontiers of what we consider limitations, and for me it seems more appropriate spending time understanding how it affects me than fighting against innovation.
5. Migration:
Cities globally will complete for talent in a way it never was before. This will happen for a number of reasons. One, as remote work become more mainstream, it becomes less relevant where you live as long as you are highly skilled and effective at what you do. Cities will need to come up with incentives to keep their most talented inhabitants.
Secondly, jurisdictions with high taxes will gradually loose their appeal and all the advantages they once enjoyed as a result of an influx of people. There will be no reason to pay exorbitant taxes while working remotely when you can simply look for a low or no tax jurisdiction that is more than happy to welcome you in.
Thirdly, countries that are anti crypto will also gradually loose their best minds. This is already happening with China. Where the most recent ban of Bitcoin saw a quick migration of miners to Singapore and the US. The US being the biggest beneficiary.
Miami is currently attracting some of the best minds globally working on the blockchain with incentives no one else is offering. Plans to create a city coin, pay workers in Bitcoin, encouraging mass ownership of Bitcoin wallets, paying Bitcoin in dividends to it’s citizens, creating a receptive environment to technology, etc.
Countries in developing nations that neglect these global changes will experience rapid decline and a gradual brain drain. Talented citizens will find a way to leave or they will be poached elsewhere. As Vusi Thembekwayo once said “What do top talents in Africa do? They leave”.
Yeah.
6. Sovereign Individual:
As the age of decentralization comes upon us all, society will be reorganized differently. Large governments will loose their appeal as individuals will prefer smaller communities over Nation state wide governance.
Individuals will reject “dictatorial” mandates of governments by leaving, using their agreed upon currencies and moving their businesses (which are online anyway) elsewhere.
In essence, the Sovereign Individual will be one that can work from anywhere, live anywhere and is not bound by a particular local currency for transactions or limited by a country’s infrastructure to make smart contracts and conduct his activities. This will be the peak of the information age and the standard of decentralized technologies.
