Notes (3/14): Guessing the Mariners next batters

Jerry Dipoto reportedly wants two batters. He wants one of each handedness, and he wants them to play on the left side of the field.

Let’s see if I can guess by process of elimination.

The full list

Left handed hitters
Freddie Freeman
Kyle Schwarber
Matt Olson
Cedric Mullins
Michael Conforto
Jesse Winker
Jeff McNeil
Kevin Kiermaier
Brandon Nimmo
Max Kepler
Brett Phillips
Anthony Rizzo
Tyler Naquin
Eddie Rosario
Seth Brown
Bradley Zimmer
Joc Pederson
Travis Jankowski

Right handed hitters
Carlos Correa
Matt Chapman
Kris Bryant
Trevor Story
Seiya Suzuki
Nick Castellanos
Donovan Solano
Matt Duffy
Tommy Pham

Switch hitters
José Ramírez
Bryan Reynolds
Jonathan Villar
Jed Lowrie

That feels like all the realistic options available to the Mariners. Now, let’s eliminate some.

I don’t think the Mariners are in on the Correa or Freeman sweepstakes (even though I think they should be). And I don’t think they’re going to meet the asking price for Story, Bryant, or Suzuki, which is fine.

It also feels pretty unlikely they’ll move the prospects for Chapman, Olson, Ramírez, Reynolds, and Mullins.

I’m also going to eliminate Rizzo, Castellanos, Rosario and Pederson for varying degrees of poor cost and fit.

The medium list

Left handed hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Michael Conforto
Jesse Winker
Jeff McNeil
Kevin Kiermaier
Brandon Nimmo
Max Kepler
Brett Phillips
Tyler Naquin
Seth Brown
Bradley Zimmer
Travis Jankowski

Right handed hitters
Donovan Solano
Matt Duffy
Tommy Pham

Switch hitters
Jonathan Villar
Jed Lowrie

I wanted to be somewhat thorough here and include as many potential options as I could. And I maintain a liberal interpretation of “impact” bat. But I think it’s fair to eliminate Lowrie, Jankowski, Brown, Pham and Naquin as redundant and not marked improvements over in-house options.

Unfortunately, I’m going to trust Dipoto at his word when he says he’s looking for corner options and cross off the center fielders.

Kepler and McNeil were wildcard inclusions in the first place and I think it’s highly unlikely they get dealt.

The short list

Left handed hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Michael Conforto
Jesse Winker

Right handed hitters
Donovan Solano
Matt Duffy

Switch hitters
Jonathan Villar

Let’s start with the lefties — each has massive strengths and weaknesses

Schwarber is truly one of the best hitters in MLB. But I’m not sure Dipoto is interested in handing out a long-term to a DH.

Conforto does a lot of the things the Mariners like at the plate and he’s probably the most obvious fit. But he also wasn’t all that productive in 2021 and his market might not align with his true value.

Winker is a top 10 or 15 hitter in MLB against right-handed pitchers. But he’s terrible against lefties and probably a true DH.

The righties list is interesting because it’s so bland compared to the names on the full list.

In my mind, the Mariners are fine rolling with Abraham Toro at third base. I think they’re willing to upgrade, but I don’t think they see the names I crossed off previously (Story, Bryant, etc. ) as big enough upgrades to justify long-term deals.

Solano, Duffy, and Villar all offer good value as ultra-versatile supplementary pieces. They would likely be cast as role players but each could hold their own as a starter if necessary.

The verdict

Left handed hitter: Jesse Winker
Right handed hitter: Matt Duffy

Winker absolutely clobbers right handed pitching — he posted a 178 wRC+ against them last year. Basically, it’d be like adding Bryce Harper to the lineup for 70% of games. Yes, he’s unplayable against lefties and limited to DH, but the Mariners roster is flexible enough to accommodate. This is a way to add massive offense with no long term commitments or roster disruptions. Perhaps Dipoto can swing a deal for Winker and Luis Castillo (hell, throw in Amir Garrett while we’re at it).

Duffy has an interesting batted ball profile and he plays a lot of positions. He allows the Mariners to run with Toro as their everyday third baseman while offering necessary cover in case things don’t work out. And he doesn’t require any long term commitment. It’s the type of boring, pragmatic, smart deal that won’t make anyone happy but should work out in the near and long term.

I came at this exercise with the assumption the Mariners really like their team. They want to upgrade, but they aren’t desperate to do so. Personally, I’d love to see them sign Correa and Freeman and trade for Kiermaier. But I just don’t think that’s likely.

This is just my guess at their thought process. Hopefully we’ll find out today how close this is.

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