The U.S. Intelligence Community Is Dangerously Unimaginative
War Is Boring

The author’s of this article should read Phillip Tetlock’s: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. It is about work the IC has done to improve it’s ability to predict what will happen in the world. Phillip Tetlock is one of the PIs (primary investigators) of a larger program, and is also a respected social psychologist in his own right.

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