Power Ranking the Southern League with Advanced Sabermetrics

Aaron Solender
Aug 28, 2017 · 10 min read

Advanced metrics will answer the all-time question that keeps most Americans up at night: which Double-A Southern League team is the best?

The Southern League is one of the three leagues in the continental United States, that when combined, create what most consider to be the most important level of minor league baseball; Double-A. This is the domain of players who have either reached their ceiling and are riding out their professional dreams until they give up when they realize it’s damn near impossible to provide for a family on a minor league baseball players salary, or those young gun prospects who are just on the verge of getting called up to the bigs.

The level of play here is good, but not great, so the teams rely more so on promotions and entertainment than the product on the field to sell tickets. The Southern League consists of some quirky names in some of the South’s most important B-list cities:

Southern League North (Current Record)

Southern League South (Current Record)

The rankings associated with these teams are based on advanced sabermetrics, primarily the recently established SAASLRM (Solender AA Southern League Ranking Metric) which is described below:

The metrics that are included as a part of SAASLRM are nickname relatability (essentially how entertaining a nickname is and/or how likely the nickname and logo are to make you purchase the teams merchandise), regional entertainment dependency (comparison between overall attendance numbers of the team and the population metrics of the town where the team is located), recent news notoriety (has this team been in the news for any substantial reasons i.e. major leaguers on assignment, crazy managers, etc.) and current winning percentage (over the past three years).

While the below rankings are based on an entirely subjectively-developed (advanced) metric, the results all have legitimate justifications. As my BCO cohort Chris O'Brien would say, let’s check it out.

10 — Jackson Generals

Overall SAASLRM Score: 45.82

The Jackson Generals are officially the worst team in all of Double-A Southern League Baseball. The Generals have a winning percentage just under .500 over the course of the past three seasons, but that’s not where their mediocrity comes from. While the Generals of Jackson may have a nice ring to those who think the Confederacy is still well and alive in the Southeastern United States, to the ears of most, it’s clearly a lackluster nickname when compared to many others in the league. The team also had the worst sell-out percentage out of any team in the Southern League with an average attendance of 2,002 and a stadium capacity of 6,000. Unfortunately, the Generals have not had any major events that have led them being in the news, unlike their minor league Mississippi cohorts.

Total Town Population Attendance: 1.18%

Sell-Out Percentage: 33.37%

NNR: C (74/100)

Three-Year WP: .497

RNN: 0

9 — Mississippi Braves

Overall SAASLRM Score: 47.89

Everyone is well aware of the Mississippi Braves, and no it’s not because of their incredibly unoriginal nickname, that is exactly the same as their major league affiliate, the Atlanta Braves. But instead, it is because of the infamous Phil Wellman.

Phil Wellman is everything that is good about minor league baseball. From the pretend grenade throwing of a rosin bag, to the literal stealing of a base, Wellman embodies all that is right with managerial tirades. Unfortunately for the Mississippi Braves, they don’t have much else going for them. Their jerseys are bland, their nickname is uninspiring, and their three-year winning percentage is below .500. The state of Mississippi is represented in minor league baseball very similarly to how they are represented among the countries top intellectuals; poorly.

Total Town Population Attendance: 1.68%

Sell-Out Percentage: 33.47%

NNR: C- (71/100)

Three-Year WP: .484

RNN: 100 (thank you for your service Phil)

8 — Mobile BayBears

Overall SAASLRM Score: 48.03

The Mobile BayBears are a team that had a lot of intrigue for me before the development of the advanced SAASLRM metrics, principally because I didn’t know what a BayBear was. Turns out, it’s not that interesting.

The team’s name does not come from some sort of aquatic ursinis, but rather a combination of the city’s baseball history and it’s geographic location;

“BayBears was strictly a play on the Mobile Bay and Bears is a part of the original name given to the Mobile team.” — Justin Baker, BayBears director of broadcasting and media relations

When in combination with the size of the town of Mobile and the associated low attendance numbers, the BayBears would’ve needed a spectacular on-field showing to climb the SAASLRM rankings. Unfortunately for the Mobile faithful, the team’s record hovers similarly to their big league affiliate, the Angels, right around .500.

Total Town Population Attendance: 0.79%

Sell-Out Percentage: 25.45%

NNR: B (84/100)

Three-Year WP: .485

RNN: 0

7 — Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Overall SAASLRM Score: 49.68

It is an absolute shame that the Jacksonville-based baseball team had to fall so far down the list on these rankings, as they were the highest-ranking team in terms of the NNR metric. 2017 was the first season in which Jacksonville operated under its current moniker, as they made the switch from the Jacksonville Sun to the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in November of 2016. The Jumbo Shrimp’s notable alumni include Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Kemp, Brandon Inge, Nolan Ryan, Tug McGraw, Tom Seaver, Larry Walker, and current-MLB home run king Giancarlo “Big Dick” Stanton. That’s an absolute murderer’s row for a list of major league alumni, but for a double-A team, that’s an unheard of collection of players. Throughout its history, the team has been affiliated with the Brewers, Expos, Mets, Indians, Dodgers, Tigers, Mariners, and Marlins. Unfortunately for North Florida’s finest, the people of Jacksonville have better things to do than watch a poorly-performing minor league baseball team, leading to their plummet down the rankings.

Total Town Population Attendance: 0.48%

Sell-Out Percentage: 38.15%

NNR: A (94/100)

Three-Year WP: .441

RNN: 0

Side Note: Their merchandise is top notch

6 — Birmingham Barons

Overall SAASLRM Score: 50.73

Michael Jordan played for the Birmingham Barons. Now that that’s out of the way, it’s easy to say that there isn’t much more to this team in its current state or in its history other than the fact that Michael Jordan played for them. The Barons are the affiliate of the Chicago White Sox, and over the past three years, have been the absolute worst team in the Southern League. During the second half of the 2016 season, the Barons had the absolute worst record in all of minor league baseball with a winning percentage of .286. The town of Birmingham loves their Barons though, and due to the GOAT factor, the Barons have a score of 100/100 for their RNN.

Total Town Population Attendance: 2.86%

Sell-Out Percentage: 71.33%

NNR: C (74/100)

Three-Year WP: .409

RNN: 100

5 — Chattanooga Lookouts

Overall SAASLRM Score: 51.20

The Chattanooga Lookouts climb to the top-half of the Southern League rankings primarily due to their on-field product. The Double-A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins have the best record in the Southern League over the past three seasons, and are currently the best team in the league by eight wins. Their nickname is relate-able to the locals, as the team is named after nearby Lookout Mountain in Chattanooga. Outside of those two facts, the team is incredibly pedestrian. The Lookouts have solid attendance numbers, and should only be on the up and up with the discussion of building a new stadium well in-the-works.

Total Town Population Attendance: 2.86%

Sell-Out Percentage: 71.33%

NNR: C (74/100)

Three-Year WP: .409

RNN: 100

4 — Tennessee Smokies

Overall SAASLRM Score: 53.05

The Smokies can rub people one way or another, depending on where you lie on your opinion of their mascot. If you think these dogs looks like serial killers, probably not going to be a big Smokies fan. If you would trust your kids to hang out with these mascots, then Smokies Stadium in Kodak, TN may be the place for you! For any Chicago natives that may have been relocated to the Southeast, it was more than likely a pleasure to regularly attend Smokies’ games, since they are the Double-A affiliate of the Cubs. Just recently, some of the Smokies’ notable alumni include Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Jorge Solar, Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, and Jake Arrietta. This outburst of talent getting called up to the bigs lately has left Cubs fans happy, but left the Smokies’ roster decimated, and put them in the bottom half of the Southern League standings. Overall, the connections with the Tennessee community that the Smokies hold has allowed them to climb towards the top of the Southern League rankings.

Total Town Population Attendance: 2.32%

Sell-Out Percentage: 71.98%

NNR: B (84/100)

Three-Year WP: .489

RNN: 0

3 — Montgomery Biscuits

Overall SAASLRM Score: 58.04

Chris O'Brien recently purchased a Montgomery Biscuits shirt and had it shipped out to him all the way out in Los Angeles. They sent it with a hand-written note thanking him for his support of the Biscuits. If that doesn’t make you love this team, then nothing will. The Biscuits mascot is a biscuit with a big slab of butter as its tongue. If that doesn’t make you love this team, then nothing will. Outside of the lovable nature of the Tampa Bay Rays’ affiliate, the Biscuits have thrown together a decent on-field product over the past three seasons, posting the second-best record in the Southern League in that time range. Their promotions for this past season included a Hank Williams Night, a Harry Potter Night, and in ball-park food nights including “Southern Food Fest,” “Crawfish Boil,” and “Thanksgiving Fest.” The marketing and promotions department of the biscuits deserves a raise.

Total Town Population Attendance: 1.65%

Sell-Out Percentage: 47.09%

NNR: A+(97/100)

Three-Year WP: .554

RNN: 20

2 — Biloxi Shuckers

Overall SAASLRM Score: 68.25

The Biloxi Shuckers are my second favorite nickname in the Southern League. Biloxi, MS is located directly on the gulf, and is one of the Southeast’s favorite locations for oysters, making this one of the more apt nicknames in the minors. The Shuckers frequently embrace the culture of Southern Mississippi by hosting theme nights including Parrot Head Night (Jimmy Buffet followers are called Parrot Heads), Negro League Tribute Night, and a Halfway to Mardi Gras celebration night at the end of August every year. Biloxi has an extensive history as a center for the oyster and seafood industries, but they had a variety of options for names in 2014 including the Beacon, Mullets, Black Jacks, Schooners, and Shrimpers. While the Mullets would’ve been my pick, and a match-up between the Shrimpers and Jumbo Shrimp would’ve been a Sportscenter Top 10 nominee every time, the Shuckers wasn’t a bad choice. The Shuckers average nearly 6% of the entire Biloxi population at each of their games, and have posted a .533 winning percentage over the past three years.

Total Town Population Attendance: 5.86%

Sell-Out Percentage: 44.31%

NNR: A- (91/100)

Three-Year WP: .533

RNN: 0

1 — Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Overall SAASLRM Score: 75.47

No surprise here to see the Blue Wahoos topping the rankings of all Southern League teams. Pensacola is home to a Naval Air Station, and Pensacola Bayfront Stadium is one of the best ways for some of America’s finest to spend some of their finest summer nights. The Blue Wahoos average a stadium fill of 85.73%, while greater than 8% of Pensacola’s entire population can be found at Blue Wahoo’s games when studs like Geoff Broussard and Tanner Rainey take the mound. The Blue Wahoos have a name that, similarly to the Shuckers, embodies the personality and character of the region. Does anyone really know what a blue wahoo is? No, but, it can be assumed that it’s something to do with fish and water, just like the Navy. Look at these three facts, and tell me this shouldn’t be your favorite team:

  • The Blue Wahoos nickname was decided in a fan vote ran by Wendy’s
  • Bubba Watson is a partial owner of the team
  • In 2016, the Blue Wahoos were chosen by Baseball America as the Double-A winner of the prestigious Bob Freitas Award as the best overall franchise among the nation’s 30 affiliates at this level.

Fast food, loving fans, Bubba, and winning. Name a more iconic duo of duos. I’ll wait.

Total Town Population Attendance: 8.03%

Sell-Out Percentage: 85.73%

NNR: A- (91/100)

Three-Year WP: .525

RNN: 25

)

Aaron Solender

Written by

ballcontroloffense.com, writer, editor, wordsmith savant

Welcome to a place where words matter. On Medium, smart voices and original ideas take center stage - with no ads in sight. Watch
Follow all the topics you care about, and we’ll deliver the best stories for you to your homepage and inbox. Explore
Get unlimited access to the best stories on Medium — and support writers while you’re at it. Just $5/month. Upgrade