Gulden in figures for June 2021
Gulden in figures is written by Aat de Kwaasteniet in a personal capacity and it is not only an objective listing of facts but it is supplemented at some points with with my ideas and opinion.
The prices are the weighted average opening prices of the various exchanges.
June 1: €0,0302
June 30: €0,0200
The lowest price was reached on: 27–06–21 €0,0197
The highest price was recorded on: 03–06–21 €0,0314
The 30-day moving average (red line) shows a declining line. It was on 01–06–21 €0,0301 and is on 30–06–21 €0,0245.
In the month of June we had regular problems with traders trying to influence the price with dumps and pumps. So first a dump to influence the price negatively in the hope that more people would sell their Gulden, followed by purchases in the hope to buy back cheaper. The market reacted with strong support settings which cushioned the blows each time but there was also some price erosion, hence the downward trend in the average price.
Price in historical perspective
The annual chart shows that Gulden has taken a big jump pricewise started in April and continued in May and June.
Below is a table with the 30-day moving average of the Gulden price and the trading volume in the past and present.
We see that the volume of trade in Gulden this month is at over 146 million Gulden with an Euro value of 3.7 million. The trading volume in Euro was only 40% of the previous month. It was the lowest volume in the past 4 month but it is 15 times the volume of june 2020. So the volume is lower than the last few months but much higher than we were used to from last year.
What is striking is that we see an unbalanced chart with a few days with top volumes and the other days with moderate volumes.
The number of Slack users has increased this month with 14 new members to a total of 3580. Of these users, an average of 160 are active daily. That is a decrease (-13%) compared to the previous month. If we look at the weekly active users (members who log into Slack at least once a week), the number is about 252 members. That is a lot lower (-21%) than last month.
This is in line with what we see in the market, the bull market is over and then everything collapses a bit.
The number of witness accounts on June 30 was 914, a small decrease from the previous month when we ended the month with 919 witness accounts.
The total amount of money in witness accounts has changed a little this month form 115,5 million to 113,9 million. The chart of the total locked amount looks devastating but realize yourself that it’s only a downtrend of 1,4%.
But the total witnessweight is also downgraded with 7% to a height of 1,287,261,704. Think that this value is a snapshot that changes every block.
Probably members did put about the same amount back into witness but with shorter deposit times because of the somewhat uncertain future about the witness rewards reduction, to watch the cat out of the tree.
Due to the decreasing total witnessweight, the return on witnesses has increased a little bit.
An average witness account with 100.000 Gulden (+/- €2000,-) fixed for 3 years now yields about 5,79% “interest” per year.
June 2021 was a month with some worries for Gulden, the price was constantly under pressure and the trading volume was also quite lower than previous months. A little worrisome is the attractiveness of Gulden to Pump and Dumper idiots.
Next month the rewards will be adjusted creating more scarcity on the market. Some people in the community expect a lot from this pricewise.
The new rewards are:
- Mining 10 Gulden/block (was 50)
- Witness 15 Gulden/block (was 30)
- Dev 65 Gulden/block (was 80)
- Totaal 90 Gulden/block (was 160)
Personally, I think the effect will be there but it certainly won’t be spectacular.
What I am curious about is what the effects will be on the number of witness accounts and the witness weight now that the lower rewards make it less attractive to create witness accounts. But if fewer people place their Gulden in witnesses, the reward per participant will actually go up again. So we’ll have to wait and see what happens. We will of course keep an eye on that in the coming months.
The mining business will have to adjust to the new rewards and because it is a self-regulating system this should not be a problem.