How India bottled the T20 World Cup: Part 3 | A cluster analysis of T20 Matches
Welcome back to my series of articles dissecting India’s T20 World Cup campaign.
So far I have established my motives for wanting to complete this analysis (you can read this in part 1) and I have discussed my methedology for clustering (which you can read in part 2). In this article I will present the clusters that resulted from my analysis.
Below is a heat map showing the relative average of each innings feature for all the clusters. This figure is calculated as:
A value of zero indicates that this value is the same as the population average. This heatmap will be often referred to in the rest of the article.
Cluster 1: Bat First, Bat Big and Bat your opposition out of the match
Bat first on a good wicket and set a way above par total, completely outbatting your opposition out of the match. Whilst the chasing side can get off to a good start, the total is too high for them to chase it down, however sometimes a clutch innings can get the chasing team over the line.
Cluster 1 represents an absolute day out for the batters. These games tend to be played on very flat wickets and the bowlers truly have nowhere to hide. The average first innings score in these clusters is almost a monumental 200 runs, which is 22% higher than the average first innings scores in T20s. A great start in the powerplay (21% higher than average) with very few wickets lost sets up an often insurmountable score for the chasing side. The heatmap indicates that for this cluster, the biggest sway from the norm is the lack of wickets lost by the team batting first in the powerplay. Combined with their great start, the team batting first are able to continue on with that momentum for the rest of the innings. Compare this to the chasing team where they lose 20% more wickets in the powerplay compared to the entire population average. Understandably, the chasing side are under huge pressure to start strongly, and whilst they score at a reasonable rate, getting to an average powerplay total of 59 runs which is 11% more than the average, they are handicapped by the loss of wickets and are unable to push on. Because of this, they are very rarely able to recover their innings and end up on the losing side.
Cluster 2: Low Scoring Hum-Dingers
The team batting first starts of badly and finishes off even worse. As a resut, the chasing team has an easy score to chase down and more often that not, they manage to reach the required total with few hiccups.
Okay this is something a little bit more relatable for all of us club cricketers. Batting first, bad start, worse finish and from the moment we went into bat, we never had a chance of winning. From the heatmap, the biggest standout for this cluster is that the side batting first loses 66% more wickets in the powerplay relative to the population average. The bowling side decimate the top order from the beginning, leading to a powerplay total that is 24% less than average. The bowling side don’t let up the pressure, continuously taking wickets and limiting the runs of the side batting first to a total which is 26% less than the first innings average in T20s. By restricting the side batting first to a fairly paltry total, the chasing team are able to seal the deal and win the match from this point 95% of the time. They start conservatively, reaching a powerplay total which is just below average, however they also lose fewer wickets compared to the average. They are often able to continue on from this solid foundation to close out the match. In rare occasions, the side defending are able to pull a rabbit out of a hat and defend their small totals. From another perspective, the chasing team have a performance that even a club cricketer would be embarassed about.
Cluster 3: Par total, great start with the ball
Batting first side set up a par total and then make early breakthroughs in the powerplay. Chasing side rarely recover from the bad start.
Who says that T20s are a bats’ game? Within this cluster, the bowlers defending come out all guns blazing and clean up the chasing bats and cripple the chasing team within the powerplay itself, taking 42% more wickets than average during this period. This is whilst limiting the batting side to an under par powerplay total, 20% less than the mean. The bats of the side batting first did their job and got their team to a par total, bang on the average of T20 matches, before handing it over to the bowlers who have a phenomenal day out. The side batting first win 96% of these matches, primarly due to their bowlers taking powerplay wickets and not allowing the chasing team to rebuild.
Cluster 4: We’ll chase thanks a lot
Team batting first gets off to a great start but cannot carry the momentum as the bowling side storm back into the match. Chasing team gets off to an even better start and more often than not manage to ice the game on a good wicket.
This cluster represents what happens when your bowlers don’t give you a good start in the second innings, in complete contrast to the previous cluster. From the heatmap, standing out in bright red it can be seen that the chasing side lose 44% less wickets in the powerplay than average, and they score 15% more runs in the powerplay. For the team batting first, they did well to reach a par total, however it could be argued that they couldn’t capitalise on a good start where they score 5% more runs than average and lose 21% less wickets than average in the powerplay. The chasing side don’t repeat the same mistakes, taking advantage of a great start to go on and close the match out, 94% of the time.
As you can see, each cluster has its own distinctive characteristics and reflects different game strategies. A strong bowling side will most likely try to follow the stories of clusters 2 & 3 where a strong bowling performance, especially in the powerplay, can set up their team very well, whether they are chasing or defending. A batting strong line up will look to follow the template of clusters 1 & 4 where they try to completely outbat their opponents, or feel confident in chasing down a par or even slightly above par total.
But which category do India fall into? Which game plans do they use and did they continue to use these plans into the world cup? Please do return for the final installment in this four part series where I will analyse India’s matches using the clusters above to understand the tactics that they used in the lead up to, and during, the 2022 T20 world cup.
