Massachusetts is about to set a tough new climate goal — we need ambitious policy in place fast to get there
Timing matters. Our national response to the coronavirus taught us that employing half-measures can have serious consequences. The same lesson applies to the climate crisis. Our policy analysis of the climate bill that passed the Massachusetts Senate in January suggests that we need to adopt specific and ambitious policies now if we want to achieve our climate goals before it is too late.
Massachusetts has historically been a leader in climate policy. Back in 2008, the Bay State set a target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This April, in response to the latest science, Governor Baker tightened the state’s emissions target to net zero by 2050, meaning that any emissions are balanced by removals from the atmosphere.
To achieve this new target, we have to get a strong start that avoids wasted investments and prepares us to make the tougher cuts later. The good news is that the state Senate and House have both passed bills that would establish a robust target of a 50% reduction by 2030. The Senate’s bill would give the state important new tools to put a price on carbon pollution (which makes up ~90% of the state’s climate-disrupting emissions), while the House is more open-ended with its policy prescriptions (focusing on a “roadmap” followed by unspecified regulations).
Now that the two bills are in conference to hash out the differences, it is crucial to advocate for the inclusion of policies that will meet these goals. Our new white paper using published carbon price modeling suggests that even the new tools in the more specific Senate bill would be unlikely to get the state all the way on their own — one plausible implementation scenario would cut emissions roughly 41% (give or take a few percent), which is a very significant reduction but well short of the 50% goal. This should be a wake-up call about the work ahead.
Unlike the Senate bill, the House’s proposed climate plan leaves most policy specifics to be developed in the future (the roadmap analysis isn’t due until the end of 2022 with detailed policies coming a year later). Once designed, these policies could still take years to fully implement; Research tells us that reaching net zero by 2050 will become harder and more expensive the longer we wait to take serious steps.
While developing a comprehensive plan backed by analysis is important, we already know most of the key policies that will be necessary to lower emissions. We should implement these now — we aren’t waiting on a coronavirus vaccine before deploying masks and distancing measures.
First, we need strong policy in the electricity sector. Electricity is the easiest sector to decarbonize (we’ve already cut emissions 55% in the state through clean energy and energy efficiency) and is critical because we can reduce emissions from buildings and cars by running them on zero carbon electricity. The legislature could address electricity emissions through a stronger clean electricity standard, but Massachusetts has fallen behind other states in this regard. New York has a target of 100% zero carbon electricity by 2040 and Virginia 88% by 2040. Our current target of 80% by 2050 (the year we are supposed to be at net zero emissions) should be strengthened. These policies are popular and reduce air pollution, which disproportionately harms communities of color. It is unclear how much ambition can be added in the conference of these two bills but this area should be a priority.
Another approach to help bring down emissions in electricity and the rest of the economy is a strong carbon price that covers all the major sectors of the economy. A comprehensive carbon price might seem like a tough sell in the midst of a pandemic-driven downturn, but not if you have been following the economics research. Research has demonstrated that carbon prices can be designed to benefit low-income households (leaving them better off than they would be without the carbon price) and invest in disadvantaged communities (to cut pollution, help them access clean energy, and prepare for climate impacts). A peer-reviewed study by Harvard and Tufts researchers on carbon prices in Europe found “zero to modest positive impact” on GDP and total employment. Carbon prices can be set now to provide certainty for business planning but can be timed so that they don’t formally kick in until after the pandemic has passed..
Legislators can also increase the odds that we reach the 2030 target by including other common-sense policies in this session’s final legislation rather than waiting for the roadmap study. Carbon prices, while powerful, are not enough to solve the climate problem on their own — there are simply too many failures in existing energy markets. Building codes are a great example of where simple requirements now can lay the groundwork for long-term success. A building constructed next year will be around for decades, which will be a problem if it still uses fossil fuels when we need net zero emissions in 2050. Codes should be updated to require new buildings to be designed for that net zero future. Avoiding the pollution now and the burden of retrofitting later is a win-win and a version of this is already in the Senate Bill. Policies that promote electric vehicles and transit would have similar benefits in the transportation sector (our largest source of emissions) and can help “bend the curve” so we can hit our goals.
COVID-19 has shown us the dangers of delaying important preparation and policies, despite years of warnings from scientists that something like this was coming. Massachusetts will soon have a new ambitious climate goal, but we need to restore our leadership position by putting strong policies in place as soon as possible to make sure we hit those goals on time.
Alex Barron, Ph.D., is an assistant professor of Environmental Science and Policy at Smith College. He previously worked in the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Lucy Metz is a junior Engineering major at Smith College.
