Joelinton scouting profile
Player focus: Is Joelinton worth 50 million?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5oq2erniE4
One of the big stories of the last few months has been the reported 45+ million interest of Newcastle United in the services of Hoffenheim’s Joelinton. According to Bild, it was actually Dietmar Hopp who actually put in a veto, due to the need for the Brazilian in the fight for the European places. Having once played in the youth setup and officially backing the club since 2000, the 78-year-old former software mogul (SAP) and founder’s name is synonymous with TSG Hoffenheim, so his rare public utterances count a lot.
Interestingly, sporting director Alexander Rosen sounded almost proud to have been able to say no. “If we’re honest, there are at least 5–6 teams that are similarly interested. We have made great strides as a club in the last few years and can say no.” — Rosen told Bild. So we know there are multiple clubs in Europe — not RB Leipzig whose sporting director\head coach\everything Ralf Rangnick said “no way we can pay 60m” — willing to pay 50–60 million, which already somewhat answers the question regarding his value. In the recent months, due to perhaps the Bundesliga season ending poorly for TSG and Joelinton missing time with injury, plus time passing on his contract (til the summer of 2022), the amount has been lowered to the 45m range.
Still, the general reaction was one of shock and awe, because as conventional wisdom goes, the soon to be 23-year-old has produced little: 8+7 goal, 5+1 assist seasons in Austria for Rapid Vienna had his Transfermarkt value around 2.5 million when TSG recalled him this summer.
After a fantastic training camp where TSG staff were raving about him, Joelinton actually became a starter and was a dark horse candidate for a breakout year. Despite missing a massive chance against Bayern in the season opener, the Brazilian has had a brilliant first full season (got a few seconds in December of 2015 against Schalke) under Julian Nagelsmann. With a whopping 19 scoring points (10G + 9 A) in 29 games across all competitions, “Joe” as he is nicknamed looks to beat out Andrej Kramaric for the team top scorer award. Furthermore, he also leads TSG with 53 in terms of successful dribbles + being fouled.
Rankings and Comparisons
So on his team he’s ranked among the best, but CIES even goes further, ranking Joelinton as the 10th best Bundesliga forward this season based on a very detailedmethodology.
Subbing Paco Alcácer or Yussuf Poulsen for Jacob Bruun Larsen, that’s a fairly accurate list that corresponds to most people’s idea of the top 10 Bundesliga forwards.
Finding a player comparison for Joelinton is tougher than one might think. Comparing him to his Hoffenheim predecessor, Roberto Firmino is both obvious and slightly bizarre. While their radars look jarringly similar and they appear stylistically to be fairly different players. Firmino’s known for his incredible footballing IQ, a devastating cover shadow that can often defend multiple players, as well as a bag of tricks and key passes that have made him into one of the highest rated attackers in the Premier League. In terms of track record, Joelinton’s only got this season of excellent play and perhaps benefits from being on the second-highest XG producing attack in the Bundesliga, as well as an excellent staff with a known history of bringing amazing performances out of pretty much anyone, aka the Nagelsmann effect.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Joelinton’s main strengths include his incredible athleticism (he has been a handful for the likes of Nicolas Otamendi, the Bender twins and even Niklas Süle), dynamism with or without the ball, his strong pressing and even the ability to man-mark opposing playmakers, as Diego Demme found out Monday. His combination and holdup play with clever back heels, lots of quick turns make him an incredibly exciting player to watch and a nightmare to defend. In addition, he possesses an ever-improving first touch, excellent upper and lower body strength and raw pace to outrun most defenders, with tremendous ball progression. He can create openings with his dribbling or runs and remains a devastating player in space. He is a fantastic target in the box: with 81 touches in the box he has the same amount as Ante Rebic, Yussuf Poulsen, or Kevin Volland.
Ante Rebic is perhaps the most apt comparison for him in the Bundesliga, because of the similarity in dynamism and athleticism. The Croatian is a nice story: After a couple of difficult loan spells at Leipzig and Fiorentina, Rebic, whose first touch is still very hit or miss, has over the last 2 seasons turned himself into one of the Bundesliga’s and world football’s rising stars. To nobody’s surprise, and as a result of some excellent exposure with Croatia reaching the finals of the World Cup, 50–60 million offers were pouring in during the summer. But one area where Rebic has an advantage over Joelinton is finishing, in particular from outside the box: just in the Bundesliga the 25-year-old has 4 goals on 29 shots outside the box, while Joelinton is 0 for 20. Their numbers inside the box are eerily similar with the edge XG\shot of 0.15 vs 0.17 going the way of the Croatian, with both somewhat known for bundling the occasional big chance.
So, would you pay 40–50m?
Well, if we take the Rebic comparison in terms of $$, there’s a decent argument: Rebic’s old contract that got extended after the World Cup used to run until 2021 and he was about to turn 25 in September, with 8 goals and 4 assists on 9 XG and 7 XA with 2.6 shots per 90 and 1.5 key passes per 90 and 0.46 XG+XA per 90 in 3100 minutes, per Understat. Joelinton this season has 6 goals and 5 assists on 8XG and 4.2 XA with 1.6 key passes on 0.62 XG+XA per 90. He’s also 22 years and 6 months old (2.5 years younger than Rebic was) and has a similar contract — 3 years left on a deal that renewed in November, while Rebic signed on for higher wages and an extra year last summer. Richarlison’s 40m move from Watford to Everton on the back of a 5+5 G+A season, (on nearly 11 XG) is also in the ballpark, so in those terms 50–60m doesn’t sound so crazy for a player like Joelinton who’s had nearly 30 games of very solid production. This of course does not necessarily mean that Newcastle SHOULD spend 50–60 million on him, as the money could be spent elsewhere, but that’s a different topic. Of course, my hunch is that Hoffenheim do hold all the cards, since if there are so many suitors from England, one is bound to pay the sum even this summer, when the post-Nagelsmann era begins. In the meantime, Joelinton can add to his value and TSG can figure out their next coach (Marco Rose is still the favorite) and what they wanna do with their low buyout clause stars and go from there. Given the tough finishing season Kramaric is having, Szalai’s output stopping since late October, and the notoriously unreliable Ishak Belfodil (currently on a hot streak), not wanting to let go of your most consistent striker is certainly reasonable.