No, Hungary’s Governing Parties Are Not in Secret Coalition with Far-Right Jobbik

If you follow closely the media coverage of Hungary, chances are that you encounter a few names on a regular basis. One of the recurring names, an outspoken critic of the Orbán Government, is Kim Lane Scheppele, a sociologist to whom Paul Krugman refers on his New York Times blog as “my Princeton colleague.” The problem with Dr. Scheppele’s so-called analysis of current events in Hungary is that it’s dressed up as expert academic analysis by a professor from a prestigious university when, in fact, what we get is a shamefully one-sided political pamphlet from — perhaps literally from — the opposition. I say literally from the opposition because her close ties to Hungary’s political opposition are well known. Less than a year ago, we read in painful detail the rather revealing, public Twitter dispute of two opposition voices, Viktor Szigetvári and Eva S. Balogh, about how they help “Kim” with her analysis and argue over who speaks with her more frequently.

As you would expect, when she is taking all her information from one side, Dr. Scheppele tends to leave out a lot of rather important facts. Her latest piece is a fine example.

In a guest post on Krugman’s blog, she claims that the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance is secretly collaborating with the far-right party, Jobbik. “On 22 February, in a small by-election in a medium-sized Hungarian town, the governing party Fidesz lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority,” therefore the ruling parties “may now be working in effective partnership” with the far-right Jobbik. The evidence? “[A]n MP from the far-right party Jobbik put Fidesz over the top to get its two thirds” in a recent parliamentary vote.

It’s an old, rather tired accusation, one that critics have tried to pin on Hungary’s center-right governments going all the way back to 1990 and the József Antall Government. But more to the root of the matter, it simply doesn’t stand up to the facts. Here’s an example.

The Orbán Government is calling for Hungary to participate in the coalition against the Islamic State, including sending troops. But sending Hungarian soldiers would require support from a two-thirds majority of all of the members of parliament. When the proposal was first put to a vote earlier this month, it was rejected. Who voted against joining the coalition against IS? The opposition, including Jobbik.

But it doesn’t stop there. The governing parties plan to put it to a vote again and, from the negotiations, we have learned that one MP, the sole representative of the Liberal Party, Gábor Fodor, would support the government’s initiative to join the mission. Is Fidesz in coalition with the Liberals? Of course not, but if the proposal passes this time it may very well be thanks to the support of the Liberal and in spite of the opposition of Jobbik.

None of that, of course, will ever appear in the Princeton colleague’s analysis.

I could go on. Her argument contains fundamental factual errors (e.g., Fidesz-KDNP lost its two-thirds majority last autumn not in February). Furthermore, we see many indications of the Socialists and Jobbik working in cahoots, in regional councils and also, it seems, in that recent by-election as well as another by-election due in a few weeks. Again, Dr. Scheppele fails to mention that.

When facts don’t support an argument, its proponents try to ignore them. A professor at a far-away university is certainly entitled to her opinion but, in the case of Kim Lane Scheppele, no one should ever confuse her politically biased writings with serious, expert analysis.