If Russia Invades Ukraine, It Will Be Due to Western Hubris
Russia has security demands like any other state. Rather than continue to provoke Russia from a sense of self-righteousness, we need to take its concerns seriously.
I have been writing about Africa lately, since that is my focus, but even there it seems that Russia is omnipresent. I cannot escape articles claiming that Russia is implanting itself on the African continent, especially with soldiers-for-hire via groups like Wagner.
Although, to date, analysts have pointed out that Russia’s stepped-up presence on the African continent has been largely a failure — for example, being routed from Mozambique by rag-tag insurgents (despite assurances its mercenaries would not withdraw)— it might not remain so. The recent embrace of Russia by both Burkina Faso and Mali’s military juntas might put that to the test.
But it is worth examining Russia’s motives for returning to Africa, after three decades (link in French) of a more or less hands-off approach following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The most glaring reason is that Russia feels, and effectively is, isolated on the world stage. Feeling cornered, it is trying to reassert its role as a global superpower which has more than began to…
