Jul 27, 2018
The growing risk of a no-deal Brexit: what would it mean for universities?
It wasn’t long after achieving a hard-won compromise at Chequers that Theresa May had to abandon it, caving in to parliamentary amendments tabled by the pro-Brexit European Research Group of MPs. With Parliament still starkly divided, the EU has stepped up the warnings to its member states of a no-deal Brexit. That outcome could have dire consequences for the country, with rising costs for consumers and businesses, confusion over regulations and contracts, disruption at ports and airports, cross-border services in disarray and four million citizens uncertain of their status. Universities are aware that whatever form Brexit takes, it will affect access to European funding schemes and research programmes, as well as the recruitment and retention of staff and students. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal though, just how serious would the impact be on academia?
Why has the chance of a no-deal Brexit increased?
Just a fortnight ago, this article series addressed what academia could expect from the Chequers summit’s soft Brexit agreement. In a sign of how quickly the political landscape can change at present, the dynamic within the government and Parliament now appears to favour a hard Brexit. The Chequers agreement met with disapproval from both Leavers and Remainers in the Commons, with the Leavers proving overall more successful in using amendments to alter the parameters of the government’s plan. Those changes drafted by pro-Brexit MPs have left the Prime Minister with less room for manoeuvre in negotiations and may have made striking a deal with the EU much more challenging.
No-deal’s impact on access to European funding and academic partnerships
The UK’s world-class universities play an important role in the academic funding and research collaboration schemes organised through the EU, including the Horizon programme and Erasmus+. In the run-up to Brexit, messages about ongoing UK participation have been mixed. Erasmus+ is due to be opened to third countries globally, in what is seen as a move to keep the door open to British involvement. Horizon, on the other hand, is expected to become much less generous in terms of EU-UK collaboration. A no-deal Brexit would add regulatory and logistical complications to how UK universities could stay involved in any such schemes; for example, while student exchange programmes require agreements on visas or the free movement of people, they also need smooth-running travel infrastructure. It would also risk making the EU far less well-disposed to the UK, in terms of the costs and complications EU member states would have to bear in adapting to no-deal’s consequences.
No-deal’s impact on recruitment and retention
A key fear about leaving the EU without a deal is that regulations and visa arrangements would fall “off a cliff edge”, leaving foreign students and academics uncertain about their rights and status. This would also act as a poor advertisement to individuals considering British universities for their future studies or careers, for whom free movement between the UK and EU-27 countries may be an important factor. Universities will no doubt be as supportive as possible of existing staff and students who experience visa problems, but there will be limits to what they can do in the face of nationwide disruption.
Based on how sterling has reacted to the Brexit vote and negotiations so far, it is expected that leaving without a deal would lead to further slumps in the currency’s value against the Euro. As demonstrated by a survey Cambridge sent to international students who declined offers of postgraduate study, this is an important issue. The devaluation of the pound and the fact that scholarships would be worth less as a result came up in the responses, both issues that would be exacerbated by a no-deal Brexit’s impact on Britain’s currency.
Students and academics will form their opinions of post-Brexit Britain based on more than how student visas and scholarships are affected though. They will also consider the attractiveness of the country as a whole, not just as a base from which to study or research, but somewhere to enjoy a decent quality of life. Unfortunately, a no-deal Brexit has the potential to interfere with the smooth running of the UK’s economy and infrastructure.
The new Brexit minister has admitted that food will need to be stockpiled as part of preparations for leaving the EU without a deal. Flights in and out of the UK are at risk of serious disruption if not being grounded outright, with there being no World Trade Organisation agreements to fall back on for aviation. Amazon’s UK boss went as far as to warn of the potential for “civil unrest” within weeks of a no-deal Brexit. While that may sound alarmist for a country where riots are a rare occurrence, shortages of food, medicine and other vital supplies would hardly be welcomed.
Such warnings about the impact of leaving the EU without a deal may prove to be unwarranted, or if disruption does occur it may be very short term. However, if Britain spends any time at all struggling to adjust it, it will be communicated globally on the news and across social media. Amongst prospective students and academics seeing stories of grounded flights or empty supermarket shelves, Britain’s reputation as a desirable destination could be badly dented.
Politicians from either side of the EU-UK divide may yet help to pull negotiations back from the brink of a no-deal Brexit. Stakeholders from across the economy and society, including universities, will continue to lobby the government about the risks of leaving the EU without a deal. As the past two weeks in Parliament have shown though, a no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out when it is considered acceptable by enough people close to the levers of power. Universities would be wise to ensure they are prepared for all eventualities.
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