Rumors of Mooncoin’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) had quite a knack for witty quotes. Another fitting one for our subject is “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Any of you who are traders in stocks, crypto and the variety of other speculative assets can undoubtedly relate to that one, so let’s dive into an overview of where we are at, in CryptoWorld, and then come back to how Mooncoin can play into an aggressive portfolio.
The phrase Crypto Winter has been bandied about often in the last few months, and it feels painfully appropriate. Traders have been getting a workout in trying to squeeze any profits in this climate, and Hodlers have been, well, just miserable.
The nice thing, for us history geeks, is that the past teaches us everything runs in cycles, regardless of the specific market. For those of us patient and savvy enough to see the big picture, and put in the hours of dedicated research, rewards appear over the course of time. I have always found it interesting, but not accidental, that the harder you work, the luckier you get. The hard part is continuing to put in the work, repetitively, religiously even, while you are not so patiently waiting for that luck thing to start kicking in. That whole bit about successful people just knowing how to keep getting back up again holds value. Failure is a harsh teacher, but the best one you will ever have, if you can get your own ego out of the way long enough to take notes. But enough of C.C.’s sermon, let’s move on:
Whether you are looking at the newer Bitcoin Misery Index (pictured above), or the historical chart of BTC, there are predictable swings over time, when zooming out the time period, so let the patterns tell the story. After each growth cycle, a bust cycle will take its place, and the cycle will repeat itself anew. You can replace this chart with a DOW chart, a real estate chart, with most any chart out there dealing with an asset class, and you still get the pattern. Having a more macro view of various markets is a big help in determining where to be at what time period. I would say it is akin to Sector picking in the stock market, but including additional asset classes to broaden your scope. Your focus may lie more heavily in real estate, or Crypto, or Forex; my thoughts are a mix of multiple asset classes is key to building a long term safety net, as when one market is in a bust phase, some of that money is going somewhere else, and into another market’s boom phase. The goal is to work on being there ahead of time.
“All well and good C.C., now are we ever going to get to Mooncoin?!” As you wish, let’s do it.
Bitcoin is, at least for the time being, still the single biggest factor that determines the price of the rest of the Alt coins. When the market was in boom cycle, BTC dominance sank all the way down to the low 30% range of the entire Crypto market cap. Notice how now, in a few months of misery, it has crept right back to the mid 40% range. People keeping their money parked in a down market tend to look for safety. I know the words “safety” and “Crypto” have no business in the same sentence for typical investors, but every market has places of more stability, within them. If you have been watching closely, you will note that the other big factor that can move individual Alt coins is breaking news and developments. And now, we are getting to the heart of the subject.
Bitcoin collapses, and takes the rest of the coins with it; bitcoin goes on a tear, and also takes the rest of the coins with it. So how do we prepare for the next wave? Any amateur economist worth his salt will tell you the trick to finding the right answer is always, and I repeat always, in asking the right question. Any Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy fans out there just had “42” pop in their heads, but I digress.
You know how in real estate, the trick is to find the smaller, more dilapidated house in the neighborhood and buy it? You don’t buy the nicest, biggest house, because that’s a rookie mistake, and we’re not rookies here. (If you are, don’t worry, I won’t rat you out.) The price of that house is already factored in (hmm, a lot like stocks), and there is typically far less room for profit margin. The smaller, ugly duckling house though, now that’s a different story. It has more potential, or hidden value, as the larger houses around it will help pull it up closer to their value. Your job is just to find the right one, at the right bargain price, and fix it. It’s not just that simple, of course. You have to take in to account where the real estate market is, in their boom/bust cycle. The best deal out there won’t help if the market is on the verge of tanking. You want to buy after the tank, at fire-sale prices.
The indicators are screaming fire-sale right now in Crypto. Heck, Crypto makes Sears look good right now, and that’s not even possible.
So, if the indicators are doing their job correctly, and we really are in the process of recoiling this market for the next boom phase, then the question would be “which coins offer the best potential profit margin?” I think the majority of us out there see the value in BTC. It has been pronounced dead so many times that none of us in the thick of it listen to those paid shills on TV anymore. Remember when Etherium was poised to destroy it? Or when Ripple was all but certain to knock it off its perch? How about when Bitcoin Cash was putting the last nail in Bitcoin’s coffin? Shook them all off like a mild cold, it did. Does Bitcoin remain dominant forever? Who knows. Who cares. I think we are maybe asking the wrong question. (See what I did there?)
For the time being, Bitcoin is the single biggest factor in determining other Altcoin prices. The next factor is individual news. Did you catch how Binance Coin was defying the entire market a few weeks ago, and making big gains? Real news moves prices, and as the market does recover, it seems certain Bitcoin’s % dominance will start to retreat again. That doesn’t make BTC a bad choice — far from it, in fact. But how much value is already factored in? It is the biggest house on the street, after all. Hell, it is a mansion in the cul-de-sac. Can it go back to 20k? Of course. We have no crystal ball, but we do have historical data, and we can also compare it somewhat with historical data of other markets, due to that cyclical nature element we discussed.
So, if BTC goes to 25k, or more, what does that do for the other coins? Certainly they get that “rising tide lifts all boats” effect, but how much, and which ones?
“You still haven’t gotten to Mooncoin. Just saying.” Alright, alright, here we go.
You have made it this far, so let’s get to it. There are a bunch of great Altcoins out there, and I would always advise diversification over a giant play on just one or two. This is where Moon comes in as one of my big darkhorse picks.
Let’s start with this:
The Brazilian Crypto exchange Bleutrade recently announced it was delisting 20 coins from its trading pairs. 20! Mind you, it only has 46 trading pairs, so that’s, if my basic math skills are holding up, close to half. Half (almost) of their entire coin offerings are getting delisted. Sure, Bittrex delisted a bunch of coins recently as well, but they have multiple hundreds of trading pairs, not 46. Is Bleutrade in trouble? My guess is as good as yours, but that seems like a brash move, if all is running smoothly. They gave an indication that this is at least partially due to low trading volumes, but Mooncoin has usually had one of the higher trading volumes on their exchange, so something doesn’t add up there.
Regardless the reason, the news has temporarily tanked the price of Moon, which leads to an interesting buying opportunity, assuming the coin is solvent, so let’s check that out in further detail.
Moon has been around since 2013, making it one of the elder statesmen of the CryptoWorld. It is a POW (Proof of Work) coin, like Bitcoin. The transaction speed is typically a few seconds, and costs 1/10 of a Mooncoin — that’s right next to free (you are not the only game in town, XRP). When’s the last time you moved around some BTC? It is not only painfully slow but, as a bonus, often painfully expensive. Yes, they are working on it, with the Lightning network and the like, and yes, it is getting better, but it still costs too much and it still takes too long. Not exactly going to replace Visa/Mastercard anytime soon, that’s for sure. Bitcoin does, arguably, serve as a fascinating new age store of value, but it is not well designed for everyday, small transactions.
So, let’s check out the 1 year chart on Mooncoin:
Note the time period it spiked, and compare that to when Bitcoin spiked. If you are really bored, insert most any Altcoin in here, and be amazed (yawn) at the exact same result.
So, if Mooncoin does absolutely nothing, except the same thing it has always been doing since 2013, logic dictates it will get pulled back up when BTC reignites the engines, just like the rest of the real use Altcoins.
But Mooncoin is doing something, and here is where we arrive at this article’s destination. Feel free to hop out and stretch your legs for a minute.
Moon has suffered from the lack of a real developer and team for some time, and has still gone through the typical cyclical motions with BTC. Remember our chat on how the news and developments make the other significant difference, after the price of Bitcoin?
Here’s the Moon breakdown for you:
The community recently took an active role and brought in its own team, from within its own community, to bring development back in line with newer startups. This includes a multi person developer staff, marketing staff and social media staff. Note these are all people with skin in the game, and with incentive to revitalize the coin’s forward progress, with a pending updated roadmap and soft fork in the pipeline. There is also renewed activity in a few Moon projects that were started, but have been dormant for some time, which include MoonEdu and Moon Smartlike projects.
The long awaited IOS desktop wallet has just been launched.
The collaboration for a mobile wallet has just been launched with SatoWallet:
A development fund, to ensure the further, continuing progress for the coin, has just been revamped.
The coin, as mentioned, took a nose dive in price from whatever is going on at Bleutrade, which has it currently at a price hard to refuse. On a side note, I would recommend using the DOGE/MOON trading pair, as you get far more bang for your buck that way. If you need more info on that, hit me up in the comments section.
And…here is the potential icing on the cake. Many Moons ago (You can’t blame me for that one, who can resist a low hanging pun?) there was an exchange called Crypsty. Look them up; I’ll wait. The powers that be in Crypsty decided to pull a fast one, and walked off (stole) with 62 billion Mooncoin. That’s billion with a B. Those 62 billion coins are now sitting in the wallet of the former Moon developer, and are easily traceable. The community has overwhelmingly voted on burning these 62 billion coins, which would drastically reduce the supply, without affecting anyone’s holdings outside of those specific coins. If this comes to fruition, it should have a dramatic affect on the demand/supply ratio.
To finally put this horse back in the stable: If Moon does nothing, besides continue what it has always done, the coin is in for a nice uptick when Bitcoin rebounds. (Did you take a good look at that MOON chart?!) It’s price getting beat up from the Bleutrade news makes it a buy one get one free sale for the near term. As the team adds new features and makes future announcements, they will start to develop a real news cycle, offering a little more independence from BTC, over the longer term. Finally, if the 62 billion coins do end up getting burned, all bets are off on where Moon can go. Now that’s a rocket ride you wouldn’t want to miss.
Until next time,
CC
