Situation Analysis of COVID-19 on Mar.15, 2020
COVID-19 officially became “pandemic” on Mar 11 which is ironically identical to the date of Great East Japan Earthquake. All the news shown in media in the U.S. and Europe as well as stock market have gone somehow into “panic” mode for the past week or so, and I feel like the “fear index” of global society has reached to the unprecedented level in my life.
I think it is important to face the “fact” at this very fluid moment to distill the likely scenario.
<Number of deaths per capita — THE number we should care most>
Before starting the analysis, I want to clarify the most important indicator for us to evaluate our battle with COVID-19. It is “the number of deaths per capita because of the disease”. Every country tries to minimize the total number of deaths regardless of their strategies. To compare the performances of various countries (or regions) fairly, we need to divide the number by their population.
Number of confirmed cases is treated equally, if not more, important in WHO’s report as well as media. However, the number can vary depending on the test policy (aggressiveness of testing) and the method of test countries apply. We should refer the “curve” of the # of confirmed cases within a country, but comparing the absolute numbers is not a smart idea because of the above reason.
Here is the graph showing the number of populations of the 10 countries/region I use for my analysis.
I separated China between Hubei and the other regions because the story is so different between them.
<The epidemic curves show rather “short” timespan>
The following graph shows the “curve” of “Weekly # of Confirmed Cases by Countries/Region”. What is important here is not the absolute numbers, but the “shape” of the curves.
One important takeaway is that we are seeing the end of first epidemic circulation China (Hubei), China (w/o Hubei), and S.Korea.
Note that it didn’t take more than 4 weeks for these countries/region to reach to their peaks once the circulation started. It didn’t take more than 4 weeks either to tail out, so the timespan of the circulation is less than 2 months.
You may say that the rather short time span of circulation was because of China’s draconian approach, but the fact that we are seeing the similar pattern for S. Korea is encouraging.
<Huge difference of the key performance indicator observed>
Let’s move on to evaluate the # of deaths per capita, the number we should care most. Here is the graph showing “# of cumulative Deaths per Capita (100 Mil)”. When calculating “per capita”, I used per 100 Mil to make it easy to grasp the magnitude.
As shown in the graph, China (Hubei), reaching more than 5,000 deaths per 100 Mil, is by far the worst (highest) so far. However, both Italy and Iran look even worse to have sharper increase of the first 3 weeks than Hubei.
On the other hand, China (w/o Hubei) as well as Japan, seems to have succeeded containing the number of deaths as small as possible, and S. Korea has been able to control it reasonably well.
Why are we seeing this huge difference of performances?
<When to convene the national “social distance” policy — the key driver for the mortality rate>
My hypothesis is that the timing of introducing major “social distance” policies to the whole country/region is the key driver. Regardless of testing policies, what matters in the end of the day is the effective social distancing and individual hygiene starting at early stage before the virus really spreads out.
The following table shows the date major political reaction resumed (second row) and adjusted number of cumulative confirmed deaths on that day (bottom). “Adjusted” here means calculating “per 100 Mil of population”.
Both China (w/o Hubei) and Japan started major restrictions at very early stage (3, 0, respectively), although the level of restrictions were different. S. Korea started reasonably early at 10. Hubei did at 29, whereas Iran at 79 and Italy at 610 (!!).
It seems to be unfortunately inevitable that both Iran and Italy will surpass the Hubei within 3 weeks or so.
If you believe this hypothesis, then you’ll have a big picture on what are waiting for the rest of the countries which imposed the major restrictions between Mar.12 & 13.
Germany and USA: Relatively in a good position. The same level of results expected as S.Korea
France: Somewhat worrisome. The same level of result as Iran
Spain: Looks pretty bad. Worse than Iran or Hubei but better than Italy
<Final thoughts>
1. If you believe the rather short time span of circulation, you’ll see the peak of epidemic curve within 2–3 weeks for the major western countries.
2. This analysis does not take into account the possible “second wave” of the epidemic. It is almost impossible to foresee it from the facts we have so far.
3. The impact of COVID-19 in terms of # of deaths in this first wave will not be so huge for USA as is discussed among media. There is a good chance that the number is within 100s. It may surpass 1000, but it should be within low 1000s.
4. We have to see how the exit strategy will play out for China as economic disaster can cause much worse mortality.
[Source of the data in the analysis]
“Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports” (World Health Organization) for the number of cases and deaths
Various news websites for the date major political reaction resumed
