Scuffed, Vol. 25: Is Bruce Arena a good coach? We find out Friday

Bruce Arena coached the U.S. to its best-ever finish in the World Cup — the quarterfinals in 2002 — and he’s won more MLS championships than anyone. Fair to say he’s the greatest soccer coach in American history.

But is he a good soccer coach today? We’ll find out Friday against Panama. It’s the biggest World Cup qualifier in 28 years, and the biggest men’s national team match since the 2014 World Cup. It’s that big because the U.S. limped through its last two qualifiers in September under Arena’s guidance. If the U.S. beats Panama, and gets a point or better at Trinidad four days later, Arena will have rescued World Cup qualifying, and, unlovely as the journey has been, that was the job. Failure to beat Panama, however, could result in the greatest footballing debacle in American history, a stain Arena (and Jurgen Klinsmann and the rest of us) will never wash out.

Let’s start by admitting the U.S. player pool is more deficient than any of us realized a year ago. Our goalkeepers are in the sunsets of their careers. We don’t have a good left back. We have only one good right back, DeAndre Yedlin, and he’s injury-prone. Other than Christian Pulisic, we don’t have a dynamic attacker. Clint Dempsey is too old, Bobby Wood too clumsy, Jozy Altidore needs the game to come to him and Jordan Morris is probably not an international-caliber player. On the wings, we have a skilled possession player — Darlington Nagbe — who doesn’t defend and doesn’t attack the goal, the energetic but raw Paul Arriola, and the invisible Fabian Johnson, who should return to left back where he played in the 2014 World Cup. Our central midfield has been Michael Bradley and a rotating cast of under-performing gentlemen, notably Kellyn Acosta, who hasn’t played in a month for his cratering club, F.C. Dallas. We do have a lot of solid center backs, but Arena hasn’t settled on a consistent pairing and they’ve been mistake-prone.

Arena said when he took over last year that he wouldn’t experiment with the roster in qualifying. He’s been true to his word, and his tendency to lean on the old guard deepened with injuries to young, talented defenders John Brooks and Yedlin. Of the 23 players on the roster for the nearly disastrous match in Honduras last month, 12 were at least 30 years old. (Compare that to, say, Germany, whose latest roster has no players over 30.) As a result, the U.S. trotted out two aging fullbacks against Honduras and they were cut to ribbons. Roughly the same crew — minus Fabian Johnson and plus Benny Feilhaber — will be in Orlando on Friday as Arena again reached deep into his comfort zone to select a roster with an average age of 29.3 for these all-important qualifiers.

I don’t blame Arena too much for this. I believe the U.S. player pool is at a tipping point where the old guard is deteriorating but the new guard hasn’t quite proved itself. Players who may deserve a call-up today (McKennie, Gonzalez, Adams) didn’t deserve one three months ago, and Arena can be forgiven for delaying their introduction to international soccer. And things started well when Arena took over the USMNT last spring! His first match was a 6–0 home drubbing of Honduras in March. We then took a point from Panama on the road, 1–1. In June, a lackluster 2–0 home win over Trinidad was good enough and we got an unexpected 1–1 draw in Mexico City. It was fair to say that though the squad had weaknesses, we were well on our way to qualification. The Gold Cup was supposed to be a proving ground for new blood on the national team, but nobody emerged, and then in September, with Brooks and Yedlin injured, we lost at home to Costa Rica, 2–0, and flirted with death in Honduras but came away with an undeserved draw.

I think Arena screwed up the lineups in those last two matches, and has failed to solve the key problem: our midfield. Not once in qualifying has the U.S. controlled the center of the park. The closest we came, in terms of just looking solid through the middle, was the draw at Mexico. And in that game we conceded possession completely and parked the bus.

Against Costa Rica, Arena ran a 4–4–2, pairing Nagbe with Bradley in the middle. Love him to death, but Nagbe is the opposite of tough and committed in a dog fight. Costa Rica conceded possession to the U.S., but anything up for grabs in the middle went their way, and they were dangerous in transition. They were more clinical, their defense was more reliable, and they won.

The lineup against Honduras, a 4–2–3–1 with Kellyn Acosta and Michael Bradley manning the center of the pitch, might have solved the midfield problem except that our old fullbacks were helpless, wingers Nagbe and Pulisic didn’t pitch in on the flanks, and Clint Dempsey was a waste of a starting spot as an attacking midfielder. Striker Jordan Morris only touched the ball 10 times, Omar Gonzalez had a bad game at center back. We were overrun.

I have my doubts that anyone on Arena’s roster can seize control of the midfield (which is why I’m so far down the tracks on the Weston McKennie hype train), but regardless, Arena has to get the lineup right on Friday, and he has to find a way to compete in the center of the park. Here’s what I’d go with if I were him, given that Acosta has been injured:

The return of right back Yedlin will be most welcome. His speed should create problems for Panama. Arriola on the right wing would be a defensive nuisance and a spark in the attack. If Alejandro Bedoya can hold his own with Bradley in the middle, then Pulisic as the No. 10 should have freedom to roam and opportunities with the ball at his feet. Nagbe on the left — again, assuming a strong performance from Bedoya — should see plenty of the ball and be able to combine with Pulisic. A center back pairing of Besler and Cameron seems almost assured. They’re used to each other. They’re our best option without Brooks.

But there will be no room for mistakes. Bedoya must play well. Panama is playing for a World Cup spot too. Their midfield tandem of Gabriel Gomez and Anibal Godoy is big, strong and savvy. We have to prevent them from controlling the match. If we concede the center of the park again, then Arena’s not learning and he’s not doing a good job. His failure to call up Weston McKennie, in particular (yes, he’s inexperienced but he’s a natural fit next to Bradley and playing at a higher club level than any American at that position), will look bad if Bradley and Bedoya get overrun, our attack never gets traction and we don’t win. Arena could go down as the coach who failed to qualify the U.S. for the World Cup for the first time since 1986. And that would make for a sad summer next year in America.

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As I alluded to earlier, if this roster can limp across the finish line, there’s reason for optimism in Russia. The team could and should be renovated by bringing in young talent for friendlies and the January camp. Weston McKennie, Jonathan Gonzalez, Matt Miazga, Justen Glad and Tyler Adams are high-level performers in professional soccer and would breathe life into a tired outfit. McKennie is starting matches for Schalke and is on a trajectory to develop into a first-class No. 8 this season. Gonzalez plays Bradley’s position (a No. 6) for the first-place Mexican club Monterrey, and he’s a canny defensive midfielder — proactive, disruptive, quick and clean on the ball (brilliant highlight reel of one of his matches here). Miazga starts at center back for third-place Dutch club Vitesse. Glad has been lights out at center back for a resurgent Real Salt Lake. Center midfielder Adams has been a bright spot in a disappointing year for New York Red Bulls, scored two goals from the right back position last week, and would be useful for his versatility.

The future is bright. After next summer’s World Cup, whether the U.S. makes it or not, here’s a lineup of players under 25 we could put on a field:

Call me crazy, but I’d love to see a scrimmage between that lineup and the best 11 on Arena’s roster minus Pulisic. I think it’d be a good match. Danny Acosta at left back is not a perfect choice, but he’s a left back (a rarity), and he’s playing well. I put Adams at right back even though it’s not his preferred position because I think McKennie and Gonzalez are better in the midfield, Adams is good at fullback and he’ll probably be needed there. I picked Josh Sargent over Jordan Morris. Sue me. I think the kid’s going to be special.

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Speaking of Sargent, the U-17s kick off their World Cup in India on Friday morning, against host India in a stadium with a capacity of 58,000. What an experience. My prediction: Sargent will score 7+ goals in the tournament. As you already know, he’s headed to Werder Bremen in Germany this spring. That side is in the relegation zone right now in the Bundesliga, but not to worry. They’ve played a tough schedule so far and been unlucky not to get a few more points.

This newsletter will have plenty to say about Arena, the U-17s and the senior side after Friday.

Scuffed is a weekly soccer newsletter focused on the U.S. Men’s National Team, and the players who could one day make it better. You can sign up here.