Ethereum | the long and short of it

This article is an ongoing list of resources and links that (probably) contribute to the real time price of $ETH.
If you are feeling generous, Contribute one ethereum to a startup who is being ignored by the traditional funding apparatus and help them on their entrepreneurial journey. If you are feeling cautious, sell me a call option on $1,000 strike price December 18 options.

I have a long bias towards ethereum. As of today I (still) think there is a better chance of it going above $1000 (again) than below $100. I think the size and strength of the Ethereum developer community is one of its strongest leading indicators.

The purpose of this post is to provide the arguments or resources (mostly made by or taken from other sources) for and against the rise in value, in one place. Each time it spikes or crashes there are plenty of articles explaining why, my goal is to put them in one place. Chronologically.

Bubble? Or the internet circa 1995

IN FAVOR OF THE RUN TO $1,000 (now $3,000? original list started at $200)

  1. FOMO
  2. declared compliant with Shariah law (chasing $500 again April 2018)
  3. This list (Maker, POS, dAPP store) (ouch below $400) March 2018
  4. New ratings? Solid B:) Testing $1100 again 1/24 2018
  5. Canadian Government Testing Transparency $970 Jan 24
  6. Brazil rumors? https://usethebitcoin.com/brazil-analysing-possibility-process-petitions-laws-ethereum/ Holding $1300 Jan 10
  7. Caspar proof of stake? Holding $850 Jan 2
  8. Maybe this is is psychological and irrational, but I think some of the move over the new year is the reset factor- funds are not buying something that is “already up 3900% for the year” hence new demand? Jan 1st $850
  9. ATH breakout over TG. Mostly technical but the fact that it is actually PROCESSING more transactions than all other crypos combined is an important number right now.
  10. Head of IMF if bullish on crypto in general (still hovering below $300 Oct 3 seems like an obvious buy coupled with Japan news and some drug companies embracing blockchain, but anything is possible) next date to watch is Oct 17th.
  11. Difficulty bomb implementation (mining is harder, supply lower) hovering below Sept 24th $300
  12. Casper (scaling) Sept 7th $335
  13. Raiden (scaling) Sept 6th $330 (down bc of China ICO news?)
  14. Geo political instability (or could be continued demand from the hard fork or simply BTC strength) August 27th $370
  15. Mark Cuban’s name in Google search results (I thought he thought this was a bubble — have to do more research here) August 25th
  16. Metropolis Hard fork and the difficulty bomb. 80%
  17. All time high transactions per day August 17th $301 (this is a FUNDAMENTAL input not a technical or general awareness one, if ethereum goes to $1,000 within 2 years this will be the reason why:)
  18. 10 law firms join the EEA August 14th (price down below 300 see why below)
  19. Ethereum + PLasma = lightning (scaling solution) August 12th current price is 320 and trading strong
  20. Vladimir and Naval talking at TC in San Fran Announced August 10th (the event is Sept 18th by which time I think ethereum will be at $500 or more)
  21. Mass adoption with dETHER? August 6th, $260
  22. SoFi CEO Mike Cagney is bullish July 20th $225
  23. Indian Government and Mastercard joining the alliance? July 17 2017 $248
  24. Crazy resiliency in price even with downward pressure from ICO selling, hacking, technical analysis etc. July 2017
  25. https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/john-mcafees-investment-company-to-start-mining-ethereum/
  26. The flippening being a self fulfilling prophecy
  27. Smart contracts, people actually USING ETH
  28. dAPPS (still learning about this)
  29. OPINION / ANECDOTAL Coinbase does not seem dumb. Their future depends on strong ethereum, if they thought it was a true bubble not just overbought they would not have refunded everyone affected by the microcrash
  30. Bitcoin ALWAYS CRASHES:)
  31. My inability to buy options — yes some people think it is a gimmick and it is possible that most people just don’t know about my offer — but those who do know believe me since I paid someone else in the community for bitcoin options.
  32. Strong technicals — every time it crashes, it bounces back not only quickly but strongly.
  33. Speaking of (bitcoin in this case) crashing,
  34. ICOS

IN FAVOR OF THE RUN TO .0001$

  1. FUD
  2. Taxes? is that the whole move other than that it went up too fast? $400 before tax day April 18
  3. Dfinity? Faster than Eth? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/dfinity-raises-61-million-for-platform-that-rivals-ethereum.html Hovering $850 after the second correction. Down from $1200 also because of the India ban? Or just because BTC is down?
  4. Mobius ICO chooses Stellar over ETHEREUM knocks eth from $1100 to $1025
  5. South Korea trading bans? Dipped from almost $1400 to below $1150
  6. “A wave of technical issues” current price $1200usd 1/9/18
  7. https://twitter.com/Ragnarly/status/948007100810084352 (ICO crackdowns we have discussed, competition from other coins, scaling issues have been discussed — maybe not resolved but they are on the table) Jan 2 18 860
  8. BUBBLE TALK! Buterin himself says ICOs are in a bubble. He is right.
  9. China, ICO bubbles, and JP Morgan’s daughter (testing 250, ouch, But hopefully “the market” realizes Jamie Dimon’s firm is part of the EEA?)
  10. China bans ICOs (floor at 280 but what a move)
  11. Metropolis Hard fork and the difficulty bomb. 20% (some interpret this as a down side because forks cause uncertainty and while hard mining decreases supply it may also decrease incentives).
  12. More BUBBLE TALK this time on CNBC so I think that is causing pressure back to 300, but while I try to avoid personal commentary I think it is important to separate ICO bubble with ETHEREUM bubble vs a Bubble in crypto overall (techstocks were in a bubble in 2000 but Amazon was not) August 17th
  13. ZEN? BTC based ETH alternative that will save $32:) for noobs who run out of gas AUGUST 16th
  14. BTC too strong? Above $4000 caused eth to go below 300? AUGUST 13th
  15. Scaling issues?
  16. Competition from NEO/Antshares?
  17. Pirates!!! Specifically the ones today stealing 30m+ from ICOs (that said the commentary here is on the security of the multisig wallets not necessarily a flaw in ETH itself — will see what the experts say) (too bad just one day after good news with Mastercard:)
  18. Spectacular headlines in the media like Ethereum co-founder thinks crypto markets are a ticking time bomb — but does he think Ethereum is the equivalent of Amazon? (Added July 17 2017)
  19. Continued volatility (crashing down to 130!:) (Added July 17 2017)
  20. Continued hacking (security) (the F above) https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/fourth-largest-cryptocurrency-exchange-was-hacked-users-lose-ethereum-and-bitcoin/
  21. NVIDIA (too much supply) (personally do not think this is an issue)
  22. ICOs — if they are run poorly or fraudulently — this will be bad for the community
  23. ICOs — if they put too much strain on the network (but that could easily go in the first group as it might be a good problem to have and something easily solved over time)
  24. Regulation — I’ve heard this in chatter in a slack group that likes to yell at me when I self promote my options offer. Taxing earnings over 10k does not stop gamblers at casinos — it is not going to stop ethereum (something else might, but not this IMO)
  25. ZB’s “gut” based on years of watching stock charts
  26. The flash crash (lack of confidence)
I held more coins below $300 than I should have without selling, the first time down (June 2017) but I also sold enough above 300 the first time to show my face in public. I (still) think it has value and I am trying to do more with ethereum than speculate for a short term profit. I am raising a fund that will using ethereum (classic crowdfunding NOT an ICO) and distributing the ethereum to fund innovation and startups (also using the crowd to determine who gets funded).

Ethereum has been on a wild ride as expected of a new financial instrument. The purpose of this post is not to try and promote my plan to buy $1,000 strike price EOY call options (see what I did there) or try and sound smart espousing the true value of triple entry accounting, blockchain, or crypto in general.

UPDATES >Wed Sept 13 with FUD around China, ICO bubbles, and JP Morgan’s daughter, but FOMO ahead of TechCrunch Disrupt and the Metropolis hard fork. OLD Sunday August 20th regarding the Metropolis Hard Fork. From MSP —
Jan 1st! N&P 71st Anniversary and a new ATH at $870.

Sources (and links generally open on my desktop about crypto and blockchain)

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