What Weather Forecasting has taught me about Life.
I have always been interested in the weather; a self-confessed weather geek if you will… I don’t know where my fascination with all things meteorological is rooted but there is one event that stands out clearly from my childhood: It was an early morning in June. My sister, mother, nan and I were sat in my parents bedroom looking south as a strong thunderstorm pushed its way up from France. The supercharged atmosphere made the tiny hairs on our forearms stand upright. The sky glowed with an eerie green tinge. Lightning bolts cut through the sky at regular intervals reminding us of our own mortality. Zeus chose his victims at random it seemed and good behaviour did not guarantee salvation when faced when faced with such indiscriminate might. Lashing rain was illuminated by a flickering street-lamp. Hail began to smash against the bedroom window as the situation worsened. Then, the unthinkable happened… We all fell to the floor — a weather bomb had exploded! I looked up. Mum had abandoned the bedroom. We heard footsteps heading hastily downstairs. Our ears were ringing with a high-pitched squeal — our World was falling apart. A moment later the downstairs door was thrown open in a blind panic. Our mother ran out into the street in the pouring rain as the light show continued to menace from the heavens. We shouted and pleaded from the windowsill for her to come back inside. Our calls fell onto deaf ears; we watched as she stood paralysed. The corner of our roof had collapsed onto the driveway in a pile of rubble.
Surprisingly, the lightning strike itself was not the most noteworthy thing about this incident. By a cruel twist of fate nan had decided to park her car at the front of the house instead of in the driveway as she usually did. She was elated that her car escaped without a scratch. However, a couple of years later she died in a car accident. Should she have parked her car in the driveway would she still be alive?
As for me, I went on to gain a degree in meteorology. I would like to share with you some of the things that the profession has taught me about life:
1. Starting conditions are important
A weather forecast is produced by a numerical weather prediction (NWP). An NWP is basically a series of impossibly complicated mathematical equations that calculate the forward motion of the atmosphere in time. All NWPs require an input for what is called the model initialization. Scientists gather observations of atmospheric conditions from around the Planet and throw them into the model. Observations are taken from weather balloons (radiosondes), satellites, and land-based weather stations. The thing is, atmospheric observations are always incomplete. Weather stations are often located far apart with little to no observations in sparsely populated areas. However, generally speaking, the more complete the observation record is at the time of model initialization, the better the forecast is likely to be.
As a society we are becoming increasingly aware of how starting conditions are equally important in human development. Factors detrimental to childhood development such as poverty, abuse, mal-nutrition and bad parenting are more likely to lead to negative outcomes in adulthood. Psychologists now insist upon the importance of positive pre and postnatal environments for healthy development. Animal experiments have even shown that prenatal experience influences postnatal preferences. Weather forecasts initialized with more complete and accurate starting conditions have a higher likelihood of being correct. Likewise, humans that come into the World with optimal starting conditions have a better than average change of a positive life outcome.
2. Life is Chaotic
Weather forecasting is a dark art. You have probably already heard of the butterfly effect. The theory goes that even a small change in initial conditions can promote a significantly different outcome at some point in the future. The famous example is that of a butterfly flapping its wings influencing the formation of a tornado several weeks later. The complexity of the atmosphere makes it difficult to forecast beyond a period of one to two weeks.
The implications of the inherent chaos of the Natural World are immense. Let’s imagine for a moment that our mortal existence and self-regulation functions in a similar way to a weather model. You are in a constant state of initialization. You may not be in control of the starting conditions that you were born with, but you have the power to influence your initial conditions in every waking moment of the day. I can’t guarantee what the outcome will be, but by making good choices, grounding yourself in the present and working towards your goals you will make a positive outcome more likely.
3. There are Multiple Possible Outcomes.
As we have already established, model initialization error and the inherent chaos in the atmosphere lead to significant forecast error. The mathematical models themselves are also imperfect. If you have heard of ensemble forecasting then you deserve brownie points. Ensemble forecasts are a set of multiple forecasts (instead of a single forecast) that aim to overcome some of these limitations. Ensemble forecasts run multiple times using different starting conditions thereby giving us a range of different outcomes. What you typically find is that at the start of the forecast period (e.g. tomorrow) initial differences between the forecasts are small but that these differences grow over time.
What does this mean for you? Well, if you are actively working on self-improvement then it will take time before you begin to reap what you sow. Perturbing your initial conditions is the best way to disrupt your model of behaviour thereby making a different outcome more likely. Which leads me to my next point…
4. Be Patient
The weather at any one location in the World is bounded by upper and lower limits. The average weather patterns over the course of decades lead to what we call climate. Climate Change is the gradual warming of the Planet due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Factors such as carbon dioxide or sunspot strength alter the climate over time, they are known as climate forcers.
Personal growth also takes time; so we need to be patient. Many people try to force a change in their lives and become disheartened after only a couple of weeks of effort. Daily commitment to positive habits ensures that over time your personal ‘climate’ will shift as you begin to resonate on a higher level in alignment with your life’s deeper meaning. Positive habits, much like climate forcers, can only move you in the right direction.
5. Check your Forecast Against the Observations
Meteorologists check their forecast against actual observations to verify if the forecast was correct, or not, as the case may be. The verification process ensures that a forecasters skill improves over time as their experience grows. Any meteorologist will be able to testify to the value of the older and more experienced members of their team that are able to offer sound advice based on lived experience.
In life, you need to make a constant effort to ensure that your behaviours help you to reach your goals. For example, you may wish to lose weight. In order to achieve this goal you could decide to go for a 30 minute run every day. One good way of ensuring that you remain on track is to keep a diary. A diary enables you to monitor your progress over time, weed out bad habits and re-adjust your daily behaviours if necessary.
6. Rare Events are Difficult to Forecast
Extreme weather events are notoriously difficult to forecast. This could be for a number of reasons ranging from insufficient weather observations to a lack of individual forecaster experience. Even after a severe weather event is well underway it can be difficult for a meteorologist to accurately communicate critical information in a timely manner in order to save lives. This can augment stress which increases the likelihood of human error.
In life, you can try your best to control your own personal happiness and to use good habits to produce an optimal ‘initialization’ every day but there are also times when extreme circumstances will throw you a side ball. Throughout your life you will need to deal with a number of challenges including bereavement, relationship difficulties and job losses to name a few. Often, the most emotionally damaging events come as a bolt from the blue. It is important to remember that it is okay to not be okay. Sometimes the forecast will go badly off track, sometimes you won’t have the necessary experience to be able to deal with a given situation. But if it’s any reassurance, after the storm will always come a calm — the system just works that way.
Finding Beauty in Chaos
Finally, it is important to accept that we will never be able to forecast the weather perfectly as the World is too complex. Our mathematical equations struggle to fully capture its mysterious fluidity. This should be something to celebrate. Sure, you can have Lady Luck on your side by committing to making positive daily life choices, but the fact of the matter is that you will never know what the future brings with absolute certainty — and I wouldn’t have it any other way. So, the next time you look up at the clouds bubbling above your head in the mid-summer sky think about how by implementing small changes you can positively influence your future. You never know where it may lead.
