The future of Disney-Fox merger

So, the Disney-Fox deal is close to closing, pending regulatory confirmations from EU and a few other countries. So, what happens now? Some of this is known, and some of this is guesswork. So, let’s take a look at each of the Disney and Fox divisions and see what happens in the future.

The story with Lucasfilm is simple: they gain all the distribution rights to anything Star Wars, and we can now watch Episodes I-IX all on the Disney streaming service. The changes at ESPN are simple as well; it remains the sports powerhouse that it has always been. Fox Sports will be spun off for the New Fox so that will not affect anything there. Pixar will remain the same. The Walt Disney Parks, Experiences and Consumer Products will remain the same. Now, you will probably see Avatar and Terminator figurines with the Disney logo, and maybe some Fox properties will get rides at the theme parks, but Fox did not have anything in this area, so it is more or less business as usual.

Now, that is the simpler side. Let’s go into a division that might not be as well known, Hulu, and the myriad of issues there. Hulu initially started out as a Netflix competitor owned by Disney, Fox, and NBCUniversal. Now, Disney owns Fox, Comcast bought NBCUniversal, and TimeWarner, now Warner Media, has a share. But, Disney with the purchase of Fox controls 60% of Hulu, leaving Comcast and Warner Media with minority stakes. It is unknown what either of them will do at this point, but we will look at both scenarios.

Whether or not Comcast and Warner leave Hulu, I want to see most if not all of the Disney and Fox stuff to be pulled off of Hulu. That includes How I Met Your Mother, Bob’s Burgers, Legion, etc. All of those shows have to go to the Disney streaming service, especially How I Met Your Mother. Other shows could go to the Disney streaming service, but I am not sure how it works, considering Disney has Hulu has its “adult” streaming service. However, if Hulu is still being part-owned by Comcast and AT&T, then I would think that they would also pull those shows as well to prevent revenue sharing. If Disney buys out the rest of Hulu though, then that possibility does exist, where adult TV shows such as The Handmaiden’s Tale or Atlanta would go to Hulu. Again, it all depends on whether Comcast and Warner pull out.

There have been many who ask the question if Disney has Hulu, why does it need another streaming service. ESPN+ is interesting because it is different from the usual fanfare of Netflix and Amazon Prime. To the questions regarding whether it needs another streaming service to make it three from one company, I think it does, even if it gains full control of Hulu. Hulu, even with all of its movies and TV shows, has gained little popularity outside the US, especially in comparison to Netflix. Therefore the Disney brand would have to take over and make sure that it can propel Hulu to international fame and recognition. And, one of Netflix’s main issues now is the fact that its content is unified with the family-friendly stuff such as FRIENDS and the gore and blood of something like the Punisher side-by-side. Disney nullifies that criticism, putting the family-friendly in one place and the pure adult in the other.

I hope that Disney does offer a bundle of ESPN+, Hulu, and Disney streaming, whenever it launches. I’m thinking for $15–30 a month, this could be an insane deal. Imagine live sports, TV shows from your favorite franchises, movies, and the rest all under one umbrella. Since Hulu and Disney will probably come in at their cheapest at $7 each and ESPN+ at $5, that comes out to $21. So, reasonably, you could see a $15 bundle with all three for a single-stream service. With multiple streams like Netflix, you could see that going to $20–25. If they were to price it like Netflix at the top end, with $14 each for Hulu and Disney streaming, and $5 for ESPN+, that service could be $32 unbundled and maybe $25 bundled. Many families already have Hulu so it would not be as big of a step for them to move up to something a little more pricey for a lot more in content.

There are so many possibilities for content for the Disney streaming service that it would be hard to name all of them. There has already been content announced from Marvel and Lucasfilm. From Marvel, there are mini-series regarding Loki and Scarlet Witch in the pipeline. From Lucasfilm, there’s a whole slew of content including Clone Wars, a live-action TV series from Jon Favreau called the Mandalorian, and a whole host of other content. From Disney, there are many movies that are in the pipeline as well.

However, this streaming service also serves as a guide to new and existing TV shows. If there is a TV show that does reasonably well on ABC, but it’s hard to justify continuing it on there, now it has a home in the Disney streaming service. If there is a movie that would not fit into the schedule but could be released, that could fit into the streaming service. The combined ABC-FOX television studios could pump out hundreds of episodes each year for this new streaming service. Netflix is having to learn how to build out a major studio and build a variety into its service. Disney already has a huge back-catalog and with two studios coming under one roof, there are possibilities for more.

Now, there are many pieces of content that we might not see for a little while. The first ten Star Wars movies are still at Warner Media and the rights might not return back until 2024. There is also tons of Fox content, such as New Girl that is at Netflix or another content distributor and might not return for a little while. Therefore, Disney might not have all the pieces it wants at launch, but it will have enough until it gains the entirety of its catalog over the next decade.

The side with more uncertainties are the two major divisions of Disney: Disney Media Networks and Walt Disney Studios, primarily their television and movie studios. You will definitely see them merge with their Fox counterparts, but will all of them go under the Disney banner, or will they continue under the Fox banner is hard to tell. Disney could continue the separation between family-friendly and adult content by putting some of the more adult content under the Fox banner. Fox Searchlight will continue as usual. Blue Sky (Fox’s animated division) will probably be folded into Disney Animation.

Here are some of the events that I would like to see. I definitely see that all of Fox’s other channels including National Geographic that have been bought out by Disney will see their shows on the Disney streaming service. However, I think that some of the lesser channels including National Geographic, FXX, FX Movies and others should all be folded into the Disney streaming service and not continue as channels. Not only would that encourage more people to sign up for the Disney streaming service, but that would also bring more views to that documentaries and features that National Geographic puts out. It is still unsure how that would work with National Geographic as that is partly owned by a non-profit organization as well.

To cap it all of, the merger of Disney and Fox is a welcome change to bring two famed studios together and to help better fight the cord-cutting and streaming tidal wave that is happening. A major problem for streaming services is a lack of content (such as CBS All Access), and Disney now has that in spades. Therefore, kudos to Bob Iger for seeing the future and executing it to perfection.