I think you are mostly right about this. The Trump administration (via FBI, NSA etc) is monitoring social media and communication channels, so now that the rabble rousers have played their hand they have exposed themselves to a higher level of scrutiny.
Nobody was arrested for what happened in Berkley, but the administration surely knows who was behind the riots and destruction.
Next will come the agent provocateurs, deeply entrapping the dissidents, tempting them to overplay their hand, at which point they will be arrested and incarcerated, followed by show trials to make examples of them.
This will greatly please the administration’s supporters and suppress further dissent, except for the hard core, who will either explode in rage (and be arrested) or be driven deep underground, at which point things will get really interesting…