Should we fight climate change?
Climate change: is it a problem?
My previous articles were mainly talking about the fashion industry but I feel the need to zoom out and go back to the roots of the question around sustainability.
When I started getting interested in the topic I had an idea of what is at stake but did not fully grasp the depth of the topic. I decided to wonder why is “sustainability” really needed? What will happen if we decide to not take climate change seriously? Is it that bad after all?
We will tackle those questions and the objective is that we come out of this articles with a better understanding of what is at stake, while having the possibility to rethink some aspects of our life.
What brings climate change?
Climate change is always presented as this terrible monster that threatens our life on Earth and yet, it feels quite remote to our everyday life. It is a very pressing topic that however does not seem to change anything to the life of most. But before proceeding with this thought, let’s make sure we understand what is climate change.
So it all starts with a natural phenomenon called the greenhouse effect. We all have heard about it, and I am sure some of us could use a reminder. Below picture explains the phenomenon well enough so I will let you take a look at it and jump directly to conclusions. If you want to read more about it, I invite you to take a look at this page where the image comes from.
So obviously the more greenhouse gases we have in the atmosphere, the more heat gets trapped and the temperature on Earth rises.
One thing that the image does not show is that oceans and plants naturally absorb CO2 (that is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities) and therefore partially counter the consequences of our activity. However, as we can see on below chart from Project Drawdown, the majority of our human-induced emissions remains in the atmosphere since natural sinks do not have the ability to absorb the massive amount of human-induced emissions we generate. To avoid any misunderstanding here, this is the main reason why climate change is happening. If you still believe climate change is mainly a natural phenomenon and our activity has little to do with it, you are invited more than anyone to continue reading.
What are the risks of exceeding +1.5 degrees by 2050?
So as explained on the greenhouse effect picture above, the temperature on Earth rises. And so what? We will spend more time outside, right?
Ah, if it would be that nice. As fixed by the Paris agreement, the global objective is to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. As I was seriously wondering where this objective came from, I decided to continue my research and will now share my thoughts.
Damaging nature
Firstly, it would be wrong to believe that the “sinks” (forests and oceans mainly) are not getting negatively affected and this is particularly true for the oceans. Despite its natural ability to dissolve CO2, the oceans are getting more acidic due to the increasing amount of CO2 they absorb. Quick chemical point. When seawater meets carbon dioxide, carbonic acid gets formed. And when the amount of carbonic acid increases, seaweed loses its ability to hold calcium carbonate, a necessary compound for corals and other marine species to be strong. Now, you need to see coral reefs as the rainforest of the ocean and understand that without them, a major part of the ecosystem for life underwater would disappear. This means that a large number of species would go through a lot of pain before going extinct, and we would also lose an important source of raw materials for medicines for example. Last point, coastal areas would be more exposed to storm and erosion since coral reefs represent a natural protection for them.
The long term effect is even more disastrous. By losing their ability to absorb a part of our carbon emissions, we will see climate change accelerate and our life on Earth will become increasingly challenging.
So double effect here: by damaging nature, our emissions of greenhouse gases hurt many animal species making their life miserable, and also directly affects human life on Earth.
Natural Catastrophes
According to the World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas, “The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change”. It is a reality, we are more exposed to the power of Mother Nature than ever before. Cyclones, wildfires, flooding, drought, we probably do not need to go through the full list of events in the past 50 years. Natural catastrophes have always occurred, but their violence and frequency are increasing dramatically due to a climate change that we are directly inducing.
Beyond the obvious and immediate risk that those extreme events represent for our life, they put in danger our access to basic needs. According to the Columbia Climate School, “There could be around 120 million people across the globe simultaneously exposed to severe compound droughts each year by the end of the century”. Food and water security are directly threatened and put the life of lots of human beings at risk.
Vulnerable regions
As we just mentioned, climate change is making certain regions of the world extremely vulnerable and put their inhabitants in a critical situation. We have to look at the big picture here. As we are currently experiencing it through the terrible war between Russia and Ukraine, movements of population are extremely complex. Looking into the future, we have to expect a lot of people to flee from vulnerable regions and try to build a new life where natural conditions are better. The least we can expect is that this will create a tense political and social situation globally and an increase in conflicts is to be feared.
At the Glasgow COP26 in 2021, I got hit for the first time by the reality. Although clear progress is happening in the decisions made, some countries’ leaders had to sit there and accept that life where they live will get more and more difficult. We are facing absolute inequality in the fight against climate change where poor and vulnerable countries are hit first, while richer and safer countries largely dominate the debate and influence what commitments are taken.
What can we do about it?
The solution is clear, we need to reduce drastically our greenhouse gases emissions. And to do that, the most pragmatic way is to look into what are the sources of those and find ways to live differently. There is probably no way we can expect our life to remain unchanged if we take the problem seriously.
Reducing carbon emissions
Take a quick look at the picture below taken from the project Drawdown page, it helps a lot to understand where we need to cut emission fast and at scale.
Kaya identity
I would like to go deeper and use the thoughts of the brilliant Jean-Marc Jancovici with the Kaya identity. I will honestly not be that thorough here, therefore I strongly advise to take 10 minutes and go through this article he wrote. His belief (explained here) is that we need to cut our overall carbon emissions by 3 (the latest IPCC report suggests to minimum halve emissions by 2030 compared to the 1990 level). And to do that, he explains that those emissions (here shown as “CO2”) are the product of four factors:
- CO2/TOE = Carbon content of energy (TOE for Ton Oil Equivalent)
- TOE/GDP = Energy intensity of the economy (GDP = Gross Domestic Product) that refers to the ability to innovate and develop solutions that require less energy
- GDP/POP = Production per person (POP = Human population)
- POP = Human population
The final equation is as follows:
CO2 emissions = Carbon content of energy × Energy intensity of the economy × Production per person × Population
To reduce CO2 emissions, we would therefore need to reduce some factors on the right side of the equation. However, he believes the population will grow by 30% between 2010 and 2050, and expects the production per person to more than double. Therefore we need to act on the carbon content of the energy we produce, and the energy intensity of the economy. In other terms if we want to reduce our carbon footprint globally, we need to rethink everything we do and find ways to live using less energy, step away from fossil fuels, and develop tools that will be more energy efficient (think about LEDs instead of traditional bulbs for example).
Indeed, Jancovici showed multiple times that the amount of CO2 emissions is directly linked with the amount of energy we use that is still mostly produced using fossil fuels. We have grown relying a lot on those huge sources of CO2: electricity produced with coal, transportation from oil, plastic everywhere made from oil…
And here is the huge contradiction. According to Jancovici, ”with a growth rate of 3% per year, there is not a drop of oil, not a liter of gas, and not a spoonful of coal left in 2080”. So we are hoping to continue living the way we do knowing that there is an end date to it, much sooner than we can think of?
Should we fight climate change, yes or no?
To be honest we do not have any individual obligation to change things now. However we need to be extremely conscious about what happens if we push it till we run out of fossil energies, meaning if we exceed the +1.5°C we are aiming for globally. If we continue on the trajectory we are having, our present and future will be marked by more natural catastrophes, disappearance of many animal species, more pandemics and illnesses, misery for many human beings, and looking a little bit ahead of us, the creation of a very difficult future for our children.
I am among those who believe that we cannot afford to go through that much pain knowing that we still have the potential to make the necessary change. To me this is where the debate lies. It is a humanitarian question more than anything else. The Earth is in danger yes and the first to suffer are the species that live on it, including us.
Thank you very much for reading this and look out for more articles that should help you navigate your way through a conscious and fair behaviour!
