Fantastic point and another that rarely, if ever, gets mentioned by the mainstream media. Along with the fact that, had Clinton and the DNC been shooting straight dice instead of saying one thing to the public and another behind closed doors (or in emails), the Russian hacking would’ve amounted to precisely jack squat.
The idea that there were a bunch of undecided voters who switched from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump at the last minute b/c they were “reminded” of HRC’s email issue by Comey defies blood flow to the brain.
I know, I know, but Nate Silver said blah, blah, blah.
Silver is good at what he does under normal circumstances, but no amount of statistical modeling turns anyone into a mind-reader and it should be obvious to anyone who follows politics/elections for a living that 2016 wasn’t remotely close to “normal circumstances.” Plus, Silver has a strongly vested interest in pinning his and 538’s utter failure to properly gauge the orange combover at every stage of the election cycle on something unforeseeable like a last-minute intervention from the FBI.
June 2015: “For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.”
July 2015: “Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.”
August 2015: “The lesson, rather, is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another…I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent.”
November 2015:“ For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent.”
June 2016: “Giving Clinton a 75 percent or 80 percent chance of winning might seem bold. It’s actually fairly cautious…the polls establish Clinton as a fairly clear favorite. And in contrast to almost everything else this election cycle, the polls have mostly been right so far.”
The simple fact of the matter is that Clinton’s server issues was a constant story as her apologists will be the first to tell you. Yet, somehow, these undecided voters had forgotten about it until the Comey letter reared its ugly head. Why? I guess b/c they’re so stupid.
Or maybe those people always planned to vote against Clinton, but only felt comfortable telling pollsters so when the media coverage surrounding HRC was particularly negative.