World leaders are lining up to meet Xi Jinping. Should the US be worried? 各國領導人相繼訪中 美國應感到擔憂嗎？
新聞來源：CNN
日期：2023/04/14
Xi Jinping has had a busy couple of weeks.
這幾週，習近平非常忙碌。
Since late last month the Chinese leader has hosted heads of state and government chiefs from Spain, Singapore, Malaysia, France and the European Union — an unusual pace of diplomatic activity that comes as countries look to Beijing as the global economy sputters in the wake of the pandemic and war in Ukraine.
隨著後疫情時代及烏俄戰爭，全球經濟疲軟，自上個月底各國都將目光投向了北京，而中國領導人以一個不尋常的外交步調，接待了來自西班牙、新加坡、馬來西亞、法國和歐盟的國家元首和政府首長。
On Friday, that list grew to include Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is expected to sign a host of bilateral deals with Xi — and, like several of the leaders before him, arrives with hopes of making progress toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
週五，這份名單增加了巴西總統魯拉（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva），而他預計會與習近平簽署一系列的雙邊協議，並且像前幾位領導人一樣，對結束烏俄戰爭的進程抱持期待。
But for Xi, this revolving door of visiting leaders — making the trip even as China has refused to condemn the Russian invasion — is also an opportunity to assert his vision for a global order not dictated by American rules — and push back against perceived threats.
中國拒絕譴責俄羅斯的入侵時，各國領導人依然訪中的行動對習近平來說是一個機會，能夠堅持其不受美國支配的全球秩序之願景，並且對於感知到的威脅做出反擊。
That’s especially urgent for the Chinese leader now, observers say.
觀察人士說，這對中國領導人來說尤其緊迫。
Three years of scaled-back diplomacy due to China’s strict Covid-19 controls coupled with economic challenges, entrenched competition with the United States and rising European concerns about Beijing’s foreign policy have left Xi under pressure to act.
由於中國對Covid-19的嚴格管控，再加上經濟挑戰、與美國的競爭深化以及歐洲對北京外交政策的擔憂加劇，三年來外交規模縮減，讓習近平面臨採取行動的壓力。
“(Chinese leaders) believe it’s time now for China to make its strategic plans,” said Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
「習近平認為中國是時候制定戰略計劃了。」新加坡南洋理工大學國際關係副教授李明江（Li Mingjiang）說。
“A potentially good outcome is to weaken American alliances … so that’s why we’re seeing quite strenuous efforts made by Beijing to try to stabilize and improve relations with European countries, and also to try to improve and strengthen cooperation with emerging economies,” he said.
「潛在好處是削弱美方的聯盟……所以這就是為什麼我們看到北京用盡全力去穩固、增進與歐洲國家的關係，並試圖改善、加強與新興經濟體的合作。」他說。
Driving a wedge
國際關係的分化
As world leaders return to Beijing despite international concerns over the growing China-Russia relationship and Beijing’s intimidation of Taiwan, Xi has used the opportunity to thread his conversations with veiled criticism of the US and keywords that signal Xi’s own view for how to reshape global power.
儘管國際社會對中俄關係的發展和北京對台灣的恐嚇感到擔憂，但習近平利用各國領導人來到北京的這個機會，在他的談話中加入了對美國的隱晦批評，並且將如何重塑國際權力關係之看法的關鍵詞加入其中。
Speaking to Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong late last month, Xi stressed that Asian countries together should “firmly oppose bullying, decoupling or severing industrial and supply chains,” while he urged Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to “resolutely resist the Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation.”
上個月底，習近平在與新加坡總理李顯龍（Lee Hsien Loong）的談話中強調，亞洲國家應共同「堅決反對霸凌、脫鉤或切斷產業和供應鏈」，同時他敦促馬來西亞總理安華（Anwar Ibrahim）「堅決抵制冷戰思維和集團對抗」。
To Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez that same day, he warned that the “sound development of China-EU relations requires the EU to uphold strategic independence,” according to readouts from the Chinese side.
據中方表示，西班牙首相桑切斯（Pedro Sanchez）當天警告說，「健全的中歐關係發展，需要歐盟堅持戰略獨立。」
Beijing has watched uneasily as the war in Ukraine has driven the US and its European allies closer. Now, analysts say playing up its economic partnerships and exploiting differences between countries on the two sides of the Atlantic is key.
北京不安地注視著烏俄戰爭拉近了美國及其歐洲盟友的距離。現在，分析人士表示，關鍵是要發揮其經濟夥伴關係，並利用大西洋兩岸國家之間的差異。
When French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Beijing last week, Xi drew comparisons between China and France: both “major countries with a tradition of independence,” Xi said, and “firm advocates for a multi-polar world” — or a world without a dominant superpower.
當法國總統馬克宏（Emmanuel Macron）上週抵達北京時，習近平將中國和法國進行了比較，習近平認為兩國都是「獨立的大國」，且堅決提倡沒有霸權的「多極世界體系」。
After a day of meetings in Beijing, Xi met Macron in the southern commercial hub of Guangzhou to continue an “informal” conversation — sipping tea and listening to the plucked melodies of traditional Chinese music before a state dinner.
在北京舉行一整天的會議後，習近平和馬克宏接續在廣州的南部商業中心進行「非正式」對話，並於國宴之前，一邊喝茶、一邊聆聽中國傳統音樂。
Macron, who has long advocated for Europe to develop an independent geopolitical policy and defense capabilities that needn’t rely on Washington, appeared receptive.
由於馬克宏長期以來主張歐洲應發展獨立的地緣政治政策，以及不需要依賴華盛頓的防禦能力，因此他似乎樂於接受這樣的對話。
He released a 51-point joint statement with China outlining cooperation on areas from nuclear energy to food security and told reporters traveling with him that when it comes to the US-China rivalry Europe must not be “caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy,” according to a Politico interview.
根據Politico的採訪，馬克宏與中國發表了一份包含51點的聯合聲明，概述從核能到食品安全等領域的合作，而他告訴同行的記者，當美中對峙時，歐洲絕不能「陷入不屬於我們的危機，因為這會阻礙建立戰略自主。」
Macron’s comments have sparked backlash in Europe and the US, but analysts say they were likely seen as a triumph in Beijing.
馬克宏的言論在歐洲和美國引發了強烈反彈，但分析人士表示，這可能被視為北京的勝利。
“Everything that can weaken the US, divide the West and move countries closer to China is good for Xi,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University. “Hence, Macron’s trip is seen in Beijing as a major victory.”
香港浸會大學政治學教授高敬文（Jean-Pierre Cabestan）表示：「一切能夠削弱美國、分裂西方，並讓各國與中國靠得更近，都對習近平有利。因此，馬克宏此行對北京來說為一大勝利。」
Lula’s back
魯拉上任
Xi may be preparing for another potential diplomatic win when he meets Lula on Friday.
當習近平週五會見盧拉時，他可能正在為另一場潛在的外交勝利做準備。
The leftist Brazilian leader, who ushered in a boom in China-Brazil trade ties during his first stint in power some two decades ago, is traveling with a delegation of business leaders, state governors, congressmen and ministers, and expected to close a raft of bilateral deals from agriculture and livestock to technology.
這位巴西左翼領導人在大約 20 年前首次執政期間，開創中巴貿易關係的繁榮時期，而他正率領由商界領袖、州長、國會議員和部長所組成的代表團出訪，預計將促成一系列從農業、畜牧業到技術的雙邊協議。
Lula’s return to power already shifts the dynamics of the China-Brazil relationship, which saw tense moments under former leader Jair Bolsonaro, who embraced anti-China rhetoric.
在前巴西總統波索納洛（Jair Bolsonaro）的領導下，由於他接受反中言論，導致中巴關係緊張，而魯拉的上任已經改變了中巴關係的動向。
Lula has already started out his state visit in Shanghai with a nod to Brazil and China cooperation, attending the former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s inauguration as head of the New Development Bank of BRICS, the bloc of emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that offers an alternative power grouping to the Western-centric G7.
魯拉對巴西和中國的合作表示贊同，已經開始在上海進行國事訪問，並出席巴西前總統羅塞芙（Dilma Rousseff）接任金磚五國（BRICS）新開發銀行（NDB）行長的就職典禮。金磚國家是為了替代以西方為中心的七大工業國組織（G7），而其中包含巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非五大新興經濟體。
“Xi will find in Lula a BRICS enthusiast, openness to reforms in the global governance system and the desire to avoid automatic alignment with the US,” said Luiza Duarte, a research fellow at American University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies in Washington.
華盛頓美利堅大學拉丁美洲和拉丁裔研究中心研究員陸依莎（Luiza Duarte）表示，「習近平會發現魯拉是金磚五國的狂熱者，他對全球治理體系的改革持開放態度，並希望避免與美國自動結盟。」
Meanwhile, Lula’s expected warm welcome in Beijing “raises comparison with his frustrating less than 24-hour visit to Washington,” she said, referring to the Brazilian leader’s February 10 visit to the White House.
同時，她說，「與魯拉2月10日在華盛頓不到24小時的白宮訪問相比，他預計會在北京受到熱烈歡迎。」
The meeting was seen at the time as a key outreach from the newly inaugurated Lula to the US.
那次會議被視為新上任的魯拉與美國的一次重要接觸。
But Beijing may use the “lack of deliverables” from that meeting “to position itself as a more appealing alternative for bilateral cooperation,” said Duarte.
「但北京可能會利用那次缺乏成果的會議，來將自己定位為一個更有吸引力的雙邊合作選擇，」陸依莎說。
Ukraine question
烏克蘭問題
Looming over diplomacy in Beijing is the Russian assault in Ukraine.
俄羅斯在烏克蘭的攻擊是對於北京外交的威脅。
Some leaders — like Macron — have viewed Xi, a close friend and diplomatic partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a potential ally that could help push Putin toward peace.
馬克宏與其他領導人認為，習近平和俄羅斯總統普丁（Vladimir Putin）是親密的朋友和外交夥伴，因此他是能夠推動普丁走向和平的潛在盟友。
But their relationship has also raised concern, with US officials earlier this year warning that China was considering providing the Kremlin with lethal aid — a claim Beijing has denied.
但他們的關係也引起了擔憂，美國官員今年初曾警告，中國正考慮向克里姆林宮提供致命的援助，然而北京方面否認了這一說法。
While France and China agreed to several points related to the war in their meeting — including opposition to attacks on nuclear power plants and the protection of women and children — Macron did not ultimately push Xi to commit on paper to any position China has not already publicly said.
法國和中國在會談中雖然同意了與戰爭有關的幾個要點，包括反對襲擊核電廠、保護婦女和兒童，但馬克宏最終並沒有要求習近平在書面上表示中國的立場。
Brazil, in advance of Lula’s trip, has offered another view: creating — as the country’s foreign minister put it — “a group of mediator countries” including China.
巴西外長在魯拉出訪前，曾提出了另一種觀點：建立包括中國在內的「調解國集團」。
But how Beijing navigates these initiatives, observers say, comes down to a bottom line that’s integrally related to Xi’s global ambitions and world view.
但觀察人士表示，北京應對的底線，取決於習近平的全球抱負和世界觀。
“It will be difficult for China to respond positively to some of the requests made by either the Americans or Europeans, because doing this would produce the risk of making the Russians upset,” said Li in Singapore.
李明江說，「對於美國或歐洲所提出的一些要求，中國很難做出積極的回應，因為這可能導致俄羅斯的不信任。」
“Russia is the only major power that shares a lot of (China’s) views on how the world and the global system should look and how various political issues should be handled. Russia is irreplaceable for China,” he said.
「在世界體系的構想以及各種政治問題的處理上，俄羅斯是唯一一個與中國觀點相同的大國，因此俄羅斯對中國來說無法取代。」他說。
That point was highlighted in another moment on Xi’s recent diplomatic agenda: his travel to Moscow in March for his own state visit — the first since he stepped into a third presidential term that same month.
習近平在3月時前往莫斯科，進行連任國家主席後的第一次國事訪問，而這次的外交議程強調了中俄穩固的關係。
And while China’s diplomacy — and deals — in the past week may not have been heavily impacted by the optics of that relationship, analysts say how Beijing handles the conflict will continue to affect views on China globally.
儘管過去一週中國的外交和協議可能沒有受到中俄關係的強烈影響，但分析人士表示，北京如何處理衝突將持續影響全球對中國的看法。
Perceptions about Xi’s potential influence over Putin have provided “leverage that allows (Xi) to get a lot of attention, and perhaps get mileage and support that he would otherwise not have,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
新加坡國立大學副教授莊嘉穎（Chong Ja Ian）表示，習近平對普丁的潛在影響之看法，讓習近平獲得超乎預期的大量關注，並可能使他獲得本來沒有的利益和支持。
“Ultimately, the test will come down to whether Xi is actually able to exert any real influence on Putin, especially in terms of ceasing the war,” he said.
他說，「最終，考驗將歸結為習近平是否真的能夠對普丁施予實質上的影響，尤其是在停戰方面。」
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