What is “White” Crime?
In Mass Shooting Incidents “Non-Hispanic Whites” are Proportional to their Share of the Population (it’s a common myth they exceed it); In Every Other Crime Category, They Are Vastly Underrepresented
David Shuey notes:
Let me be clear: If you’re a racist or general idiot coming here, go back to your dark hole. This is meant to clear up many misconceptions around crime and statistics. This unfortunately happens far too often, from liberals with good intentions to surly cranks to — sadly — the mainstream media.
I gave a vigorous edit in October 2017, for a final polish of this page — completely with helpful bullet points. The bottom half is completely reworked, and some readers may want to skip to this section: “White Supremacy Has to Die” i.e. White Men. This topic probably deserves it’s own post, as opposed to a reply to Traditional Tradesman above. But he wrote a good post, and I commend him for it. Oh well. Here it sits for Google to find later.
I also updated this page in January and February 2017 to clarify how the category of “whites” sometimes include Hispanic populations. This fact is often forgotten by those making ideological or political points, like CNN’s Sally Kohn does when she says incorrectly, “White men account for 69 percent of those arrested for violent crimes.” This is a common mistake mostly made in arguments coming from the left to argue against race-based correlations on crime; and refuted accurately by some on the right who understand how the government can cause confusion on this matter. It’s interesting how ideological self-interest can sometimes help or hinder people when discovering and revealing grounded facts.
In this rare case, the “right” is right, or correct. Liberals can seemingly get away with making specious points, with the mainstream media in full support screaming headlines such as “WHITE MEN HAVE COMMITTED MORE MASS SHOOTINGS THAN ANY OTHER GROUP” (Newsweek) and “White men have much to discuss about mass shootings” (Washington Post). This is because few push back with a fact-based argument that “blacks commit more crime” across the board, including in mass shootings (16% of total), at a higher rate than their share of the population. Why? Fear of being called racist, I assume. It’s also the truth. So, sure, non-Hispanic whites technically commit more mass shootings than anyone else in the United States (64% of total, according to Mother Jones-data interpreted by CNN … or possibly 54% according to Mother Jones-data interpreted by Newsweek). But whites are also 5 times larger than the black population. And when it comes to all homicides and shootings, blacks actually DO surpass whites by rate (8 times more) AND sum total. But Newsweek and others have learned not to focus on those inconvenient facts in recent years as the Black Lives Matter narrative has taken solid root deep in the media landscape.
And to CNN, Mother Jones, and Newsweek and other media: Please try to get your percentages and facts correct, even when using the same sources.
First, Know Your American Demographics
Things get confusing, but keep these up-to-date demographic percentages in mind as you continue to the next section where I try to explain how to best breakdown FBI statistics:
- In FBI and some government stats, “white” is around 77% of the U.S. population because it includes Hispanics/Latinos
- In FBI and some government stats, “black” is around 13% of the U.S. population. Note: A very small percentage of Hispanics/Latinos are “black”, but generally and universally “12–13%” is the African American percentage of the U.S. population.
- Non-Hispanic whites are around 61% of the population and dropping.
- Hispanics/Latinos are not a racial group, per se. As an ethnic group, Hispanics are around 17% of the U.S. population.
- Americans also largely ignorant of demographic numbers and vastly over-estimate the black and Hispanic population in the United States. According to a 2001 Gallup poll, “On average, Americans say that 33% of the U.S. population is black.”
Second, Try This Experiment to Understand FBI’s Data and How to Get an Accurate Figure for Non-Hispanic White Crime
Bottom line: FBI data by race is divided almost entirely between black and white, with less than 3% of crime attributed to three other minority groups. Hispanic/Latino is not a racial group. To get the “white” total without having 90% of Hispanics/Latinos added to that number, do the following:
- Go to The FBI data for 2013 and look at “Murders” (“Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter”).
- Scroll down to the bottom of Table 43A. There you will see a left-right scroll bar, and you can scroll to the right (then scroll back up) to view what I assume 99% of people don’t see: Two columns for “Not Hispanic or Latino” and “Hispanic or Latino.” (You can also click on the table, and use arrow keys, too, which is easier.)
- There you can see that 21.7% of murders are by “Hispanic or Latino.”
- At this point, subtract 90% of the Hispanic/Latino’s “ 21.7%” on the far right column, which gives you 19%.
- Subtract 19% from “white” category of 45.3%.
- The final calculation: The non-Hispanic white share of murders is close to 26%.
I would bet a silver dollar with a non-Hispanic white president on it that many people — activists especially, or activist “journalists” like Sally Kohn — see “white” in that column and do NOT factor in that it includes another 16–17% of the population that is Hispanic/Latino. Thus, when looking at FBI Uniform Crime Data, assume that almost 80% of the population that is “white” accounts for 68.9% of arrests in 2013.
In short, far too many on the left play politics with crime data. I’m attempting not to.
That’s a rough way of getting the most accurate percentage of non-Hispanic white persons, which is reasonable given a vast majority of debate over race and crime in the U.S. comes down to these categories: White, Hispanic/Latino, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander and/or Native American.
But does that answer the breakdown question of how Hispanics sometimes get grouped in with non-Hispanic whites sometimes? A good area to understand how this gets confusing is when The Washington Post and The Guardian separate those two groups when it comes to victims of police shootings, which I parse on other Medium essays.
How 90% of Hispanics/Latinos are Counted as “White” in Census Data? Wikipedia Has the Answer!
Based on the definitions created by the Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Census Bureau, the concepts of…en.m.wikipedia.org
In the 2010 United States Census, 50.5 million Americans (16.3% of the total population) listed themselves as ethnically Hispanic or Latino. Of those, 53.0% (26.7 million) self-identified as racially white. The remaining respondents listed their races as: some other race 36.7%, two or more races (multiracial) 6.0%, Black or African American 2.5%, American Indian and Alaska Native 1.4%, Asian 0.4%, and Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander 0.1%.
The respondents in the “some other race” category are reclassified as white by the Census Bureau in its official estimates of race. This means that more than 90% of all Hispanic or Latino Americans are counted as “white” in some statistics of the US government.
Hispanics and Latinos who are native-born and those who are immigrant identify as White in nearly identical percentages: 53.9 and 53.7, respectively, per figures from 2007. The overall Hispanic or Latino ratio was 53.8%.
White Hispanics are widespread, with Florida and Texas being 2 states with some of the highest percentages of Hispanics self identifying as white.
One could possibly also deduct 10% off the “black” category if you want to say non-Hispanic black. But I’ve yet to read if that’s done anywhere. As I wrote at the top, a very small percentage of Hispanics/Latinos are “black”.
It’s true that the non-Hispanic white population (61%) is responsible for only one-quarter of murders (26%) and higher percentages for all other crimes except for robbery (24%). Non-Hispanic whites make up 39% in prison (blacks are 40% and Hispanics are 2% points higher than their share of the population, at 19%). These are are FBI and Wikipedia stats for African Americans: Homicide offender (and victim) rate = 50–55%; Violent crime arrests = 39%; Weapons arrests = 40%; Overall arrests = 28%.
What About Heather Mac Donald’s Breakdown of Disparities of Crime Victimization and Offending by Race?
As a response to Traditional Tradesman post, I started fussing with what Heather Mac Donald in a National Review article, which included a chart (see above) that I spent an hour the other week trying to parse. On the surface, it looked like some American Renaissance data crunching, which bends statistics for racist ends. I went back to it in October 2017, and I can see how simple it is to calculate how 5 times more crime is directed at whites by blacks than vice versa (this chart breaks out Hispanics as their own category). Simply deduct 13.7% from about 4 million white victimizations (4,091,971), and then deduct 10.4% from nearly 1 million black victimizations (955,800). You do get the exact numbers that Mac Donald calculates.
The “War on Cops” writer Mac Donald says:
In fact, white violence against blacks is dwarfed by black on white violence. In 2012, blacks committed 560,600 acts of violence against whites (excluding homicide), and whites committed 99,403 acts of violence (excluding homicide) against blacks, according to data from the National Crime Victimization Survey provided to the author. Blacks, in other words, committed 85 percent of the non-homicide interracial crimes of violence between blacks and whites, even though they are less than 13 percent of the population. Both the absolute number of incidents and the rate of black-on-white violence are therefore magnitudes higher than white-on-black violence. There is no white race war going on.
Looking at the annual FBI chart on murder by race of victim and offender, one can also see easily see that about 2 times as many homicides are directed at blacks towards whites than vice versa, 409 versus 189. (This table does not break out Hispanics into their own category.) I do wonder how “murder” would be vastly different than all other categories of “violent crime” — which again, is a difference of 5 times— but arrest tabulation (FBI) often points to different results than victim surveys (what Mac Donald is looking at), though there is overlap at times.
However, I’m not sure what a statistician would say when dealing with demographics where non-Hispanic whites are 5 times more of the population than blacks. Here’s what I would assume if all things were equal (everyone treats each other the same; poverty and crime are equalized among all racial backgrounds): The interracial crime would be 1:1, i.e. no one side of the racial divide would receive more victimizations than the other. However, that is clearly not the case. Whites seem to be on the receiving end of crime more than they deliver crime.
“White Supremacy Has to Die” i.e. White Men
Yet the narrative is pushed by critical race theory professors who say “some white people will have to die” to carry out justice against “anti-black” forces. There’s many sides to this complex point, and Snopes tends to side with the professor’s arguments, arguing his words are taken out of context. Perhaps. The professor obfuscates the point that “historically” one could say lynchings are a good reason to defend oneself. Yet it’s a contemporary reality that there practically are no lynchings. Additionally, 43% of cop killers are black, but 25% of the victims of lethal force by police are black, thus making the professor’s argument a logical and irrelevant fallacy.
Today, social and mainstream media erupts from a drunken white man perpetrating a hate crime murder in Kansas against another man from India, while far less attention was paid to a hate crime mass killing in Fresno in 2017 where a black man killed 3 white people (representing almost half of of the average annual hate crime killings). He was motivated by paranoid fears of the white majority threat against blacks, saying from jail to CNN, “All I knew was white supremacy has to die and the people who benefit from white supremacy … are white men.” They say he’s being checked for his mental health, but his sentiments are widespread and often heard on college campuses and social media. Those ideas were a direct motivation to murder 5 police in Dallas by a sniper on a quest to “kill white people, especially white police officers,” as well as in Baton Rouge where 2 cops were killed by a black militant who praised the Dallas shooter. That same month, July 2016, a black Harvard economist and MacArthur Fellowship winner showed the world that white people were more likely to be shot and killed by police than black people. Many people didn’t listen.
Final Thought in Bullet Points and Sources
- 7.5% of black homicides are by whites, including Hispanics. (FBI data)
- 13.6% of white homicides, including Hispanics, are by blacks. (FBI data)
- Homicides of blacks by police amount to less than 4% of total black homicides. (Guardian data, CDC homicide totals, and Violence Police Center racial breakdown of homicide)
- Homicides of non-Hispanic whites by police would account for 12% of total white homicides. (Guardian data, CDC homicide totals, and Violence Police Center racial breakdown of homicide)
In the end, the question needs to be asked and understood by all Americans before we move forward together: Who should fear who? (Frankly, rarely the unknown stranger, except if in high-crime areas.)
To state it clearly: With a spike of more than 3000 murders in two years to 17,250 homicides in 2016, and no determinable increase of people shot by police, this is the outlook for two demographic sets of of people walking outside their home:
- For every 1 black person killed by police, there are another 31 blacks killed by a black person. The ratio for blacks killed in total is 34:1.
THE MATH: 17,250 (total murders) x 52% (percentage of black victims) x 91% (intraracial black-on-black) ÷ 266 (blacks killed by police) = 30.7
- For every 1 white person killed by police, there are another 7 whites killed by a white person. The ratio for whites killed in total is 9:1.
THE MATH: 17,250 (total murders) x 30% (percentage of white victims) x 83% (intraracial white-on-white) ÷ 574 (whites killed by police) = 7.4
“In 2016, the estimated number of murders in the nation was 17,250. This was an 8.6% increase from the 2015 estimate, a 16.1% increase from the 2012 figure.”
409 whites killed by blacks in 2013, and 189 blacks killed by whites: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls
CDC homicides = 15,872: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm
The white homicide percentage is hard to come by on Google. 30% is likely estimate based on above figure of being 26% of murderers (being murdered slightly more than share of killing themselves), and corroborated by murder victim rate from this VPC.org source. (From Violence Policy Center: The Hispanic homicide victimization rate in 2010 was 5.73 per 100,000; white = 2.52 per 100,000; black = 19.47 per 100,000) http://www.vpc.org/studies/hispanic.pdf
52.3% of homicide victims are black (likely going higher in recent years, as crime spikes are driven in largely black cities): https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/race-and-homicide-in-america-by-the-numbers
Recent percentage breakdown of intraracial homicide, 83% white-on-white, and 91% black-on-black:
574 (whites killed by police) and 266 (blacks killed by police): https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-police-killings-us-database