Notes on Thinking in Bets

Why thinking in bets can help us make better decisions

Life is Poker, not Chess

Everything is a bet

Our brains weren’t built for rationality

How to apply bet-thinking to your decision-making

“I’m not sure” — Acknowledging uncertainty

Redefining “Wrong”

Redefining confidence

Belief

Wanna bet? Using bets to vet your beliefs and check your decisions

Advice on Communicating truthfully

Adventures in mental time travel

Backcasting: Working backward from a positive future

Pre-mortems

Founder of DoubleUp (DoubleUp.agency), co-founder of Supercast (supercast.com). Admirer of simplicity, fan of excess. Sharing notes at booknotes.email