Notes on Thinking in Bets

Why thinking in bets can help us make better decisions

Life is Poker, not Chess

Everything is a bet

Our brains weren’t built for rationality

How to apply bet-thinking to your decision-making

“I’m not sure” — Acknowledging uncertainty

Redefining “Wrong”

Redefining confidence


Wanna bet? Using bets to vet your beliefs and check your decisions

Advice on Communicating truthfully

Adventures in mental time travel

Backcasting: Working backward from a positive future


Founder of DoubleUp (, co-founder of Supercast ( Admirer of simplicity, fan of excess. Sharing notes at