2024 EU Election Results — The Rise of the Far-Right… Again.
A Far-Right surge in Europe, but are we really surprised? My Thoughts and what this means for European stability.
On 6th June 2024, European leaders and war veterans gathered on the beaches of Normandy to celebrate the 80-year-old D-day, a symbol of liberation from war, nationalism and fascism, that came so close to conquering Europe all those years ago. And yet, 72 hours later, Europe again faces fascism, nationalism and war, from within.
As the results of the EU Parliamentary election trickled through, the fears of many became a reality. The die had been cast, there was no going back from yet another, arguably more potent win for the far-right in Europe, and as we have seen from the reverberations throughout Europe (notably in France and Belgium), the consequences may be dire for the European Union and its member states.
So, I guess this begs the question, what actually happened, how did it happen, and what does this mean for the European Union? Boy oh boy, I am glad you asked...
Well, lets start with the winners: the far-right. Alternative für Deutschland, a party whose lead candidate recently stated that the Nazi’s main paramilitary force — the SS — were “not all criminals”, increased its vote from 11% to 15.9%, jumping ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD party. Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia won 28% of the vote in Italy, quadrupling its 2019 result, whilst in Austria, the far-right Freedom Party won with 25.7% of the vote. Perhaps the biggest coup of them all was France’s hard-right Rassemblement National, led by Jordan Bardella, which more than doubled the vote of incumbent President Macron’s pro-European party. More to come on that, later.
Was there anything to shout about for the centrists? Well, they did not collapse, if that is something to shout about. Viktor Orban’s ultra-right Fidesz Party underperformed, its coalition dropping 6% points compared to 2019, with 44% of the vote, whilst Geert Wilder’s Party for Freedom finished second behind a Left-Green alliance, alongside the centre-right European People’s Party of Spain and Poland, which topped the polls in their respective jurisdictions. However, any hope that the centre and left of the EU fought off the far-right was hit by one final nail in the coffin. Not only did the far-right grow, but the greens shed seats, as it was pushed from 4th to 6th place in projected seats held, surrounded by fears that the continent may be on the verge of weakening its climate ambitions.
It is a complicated and chequered picture, but for me, it is clear who won. Despite some far-right parties faltering, and the centre ground still holding, those who want to change Europe from inside, searching for nationalism and sovereignty by changing the European Union from within, won. Despite not winning the most seats, the far-right won their biggest ever share of the vote whilst the left, aided by the Nordic Greens, limped towards the finish line. Those who we once called racists and turned a blind eye to have been normalised into the political mainstream, in some cases accepted with open arms, laying the groundwork for a revolution at national level. This, a springboard for bigger, national progress, is their victory.
Enough of the descriptive copy and pasting? Gotcha. Let us analyse the results then. How did this happen? What were the causes of the surge in far-right support? There are several reasons, but for the sake of time and your sanity, I will focus on two interrelated issues — the rise of the ‘alt-right’ and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
The ‘Alt-Right’ must be distinguished from its older, tactless and undiplomatic brother, the ‘Far-Right’. The latter is what comes to our mind when we think of the traditional far-right, up until the late 2000's. Skinheads marching down the street, masked men showcasing nazi salutes, the clumsy, fringe politicians who went so far as to claim race was linked to IQ, amongst other bogus claims. The ‘Alt Right’, however, is a phenomenon that has helped normalize the far-right as we see it today. They are slick, they are smart, they are tactful, they are intelligent. They have detoxified the far-right, hiding what they really think, selling it in a package of more sensible politics branded as patriotic, nationalist and for the pride of ones nation.
Perhaps the best example of this is Italy’s current Prime Minister, Georgia Meloni. Elected in 2022, her party, Fratelli d’Italia is a party with neofascist origins. The party is a descendant of the Italian Social Movement (MSI), set up by a minister in Benito Mussolini’s dictatorship. Its logo, the tricoloured flame created to sympathise with post-WW2 fascist sympathisers, is today branded on the party’s official logo. So how did she become Prime Minister? Well, she moderated her image, but not her key messages. In her election campaign, Meloni cultivated the image of a reasonable, reassuring leader. The central word in her victory speech was ‘responsibility’. She vowed not to legislate on abortion and same-sex couples. Unlike her predecessors around Europe - Berlusconi, Farage, Le Pen Sr - she was responsible in opposition, dismissing claims within her ranks in 2020 that Covid-19 was a hoax, for example. She avoided the trap of engaging in personal insults, she utilised social media to appeal to the young, she spoke abroad, delivered addresses and interviews in English, presenting herself as a reassuring and capable state representative.
Despite this, her underlying beliefs did not change. She did not ‘walk the walk’, but the ‘talk the talk’ was enough to win. Her party signed a manifesto condemning abortion and called for restrictions on LGBTIQ+ rights, whilst her closest advisor was accused of touting the Great Replacement theory. Unfortunately, world leaders have refused to confront Meloni, instead welcoming her with open arms, in turn legitimizing her views and giving credence to the new alt-right. This is no better demonstrated with the courting of Meloni by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to secure her second term as the EU Commission President.
Whilst the far-right have continued to detoxify its image across Europe, they have seen a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo, and used it to their advantage.
Driven of late by the cost of living crisis, immigration, and collapsing public institutions, many increasingly believe ‘the establishment’ — the political institutions who have churned out leader after leader for the best part of 80 years — and those that represent it, no longer have their best interests at heart. They cannot help the single mother pay their bills, the struggling businessman get a loan, the elderly war veteran stay warm at night. So what do they do? They look for an alternative. Ladies and gentleman, right on cue, the alt-right.
Best shown with the 2016 Brexit referendum, to vote leave was to stick your middle finger up at the political elite. People were struggling, and Brexit was seen as a ‘what’s the worst that can happen’ vote, because the working class had been left behind. The British far-right positioned themselves as the change vote, and Brexit was their answer. It would solve the migration crisis, overcrowded schools, an underfunded healthcare system. One vote, and everything can be fixed, why not? Unfortunately for the people of Great Britain, they were duped, as figures show that Brexit has led to the average Briton being £2,000 worse off, with nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK due to Brexit.
Brexit is not the only culprit. Donald Trump, the ‘self-made billionaire’ who received the small sum of $1 million from his father to get going in life, positioned himself as the man of the people, of the working class, of the ‘left behind’. We know what happened there, and the sequel is buffering. Whilst in France, Marine Le Pen has finished runner up in the last two French Presidential elections, pitching herself as the candidate of the working class, there to help the rural, forgotten Frenchmen, simultaneously labelling Macron as the pro-migrant President of the rich. In 2017, Le Pen won 41% of the vote, and is the current favourite for the 2027 French Presidential election.
So, what does this mean for the EU? As an institution, the EU is alive and kicking. Brexit helped, showing the grim reality of leaving the EU. Yet as the far-right grows, the EU must lurch to the right to stay in control, it has no choice but to accommodate the extremes, or risk further fractures as a precursor to its collapse. With this, its policy agenda will change, and if the trend of far-right victories continue, its founding mission will be severely under threat.
Yet more worryingly is the impact these results have on individual member states, with a bolstered far-right believing it can go on to make local gains, paving the way for a far-right head of state. Case in point? La République française.
As previously mentioned, and to poetically summarise, Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) wiped the floor with President Macron’s centrist coalition. In 2019, RN won 23% of the vote, compared to the 22% of Macron’s Renaissance party. Fast-forward to 2024, RN increased its vote to 31%, whilst Renaissance decreased its vote to 15%. The French expected a far-right win, but this bad? Absolutely not, and now they are panicking.
Within hours of the result, the French President hosted a live broadcast, admitting that the result was “not a good result for parties who want to defend Europe”, and shocked the French public — and indeed his own MPs — by dissolving the French parliament and calling for legislative elections in early July.
Par consequent, France could be opening the door to its first far-right (equivalent) Prime Minister since.. you guessed it, the 1940s. Macron has taken a huge gamble in calling this election, with his party currently holding 169 seats compared to 2nd place RN with 88. Why is this a gamble, you pleadingly ask? Well, following their European victory, RN are in the driving seat, with one poll predicting they could get up to 265 seats, compared to the 155 of Macron’s centrist coalition. This would leave RN as the largest party, needing to scrape together only 24 seats to have a majority, forcing President Macron to pick their current President — Jordan Bardella — as the Prime Minister he has to work with for the rest of his tenure.
Macrons unprecedented risk is two-fold. The first is hoping the French people come out in their swathes to prevent a far-right victory, owing to a fear that it is now a genuine, concrete possibility. This will rebuke the aspirations of the far-right and make it clear that they won the EU elections on a wave of anti-Macron, anti-establishment sentiments, but when the public realise they have a sniff of power, they will not let them in. The second, a much more cynical approach, is that he is willing to give the far-right power for three years until the 2027 Presidential election, in hope that, in being forced to govern instead of criticise, genuinely act and implement policy instead of coasting on the anti-establishment agenda, the far-right will buckle, and the holy grail of French politics — the Presidency — will remain free of far-right extremism.
It is a gamble of the highest order by President Macron, with the race too tight to call. This, in itself, is the best conclusion to my question, what does this victory mean for individual EU Member States? It normalises the extremes, the racism, the fascism, the hatred that was so stridently repelled not long ago, and so rarely reached more than 3% in the polls. It opens the door to their victory, for once upon a time they were looking in from the outside, but now they are but votes away from the corridors of absolute power.
The following applies to France, but indeed all of my European neighbours following the far-right with curiosity: be careful what you wish for. Let us not forget where Marine Le Pen’s and Rassemblement National true allegiances lie. Receiving campaign funding from Vladimir Putin, shaking hands with Viktor Orban, and sharing a stage with white nationalist Steve Bannon. As we say in English, a leopard never changes its spots, and we would be a fool to think any different of the far-right.
