Global fertility is in decline pretty much everywhere, with only a few exceptions. We once believed that the transition to a low fertility society was a centuries long process, predicated on achieving a society defined by first world living standards, high levels of education and progressive attitudes towards gender norms. We now know this to be untrue. Across the Global South, developing nations are hitting sub-replacement fertility in just a fraction of the time it took Western nations. Even more surprising, is that many of these nations remain resolutely old fashioned in their cultural attitudes towards marriage, childbirth, and gender norms. That’s not to say their cultures have remained static or traditionalist (pre-industrial). But the 21st century has shown that even a full-blown religious revival cannot prevent or halt a precipitous decline in fertility.
Fertility is declining, and no one knows why. There are plenty of attempts at explanations, many of which seem quite intuitive at first glance, only to fall apart when held to closer scrutiny.
To better understand why that is let’s consider the following analogy:
A police officer sees a drunk man searching…
