Ethereum block gas limit increase and state growth

EDIT: I have found bug in the code that produced the charts and had to re-generated the charts and republish. Now you can see there was a dip around the time of the block gas limit increase, then the state growth did accelerate, but not above the levels that were before the dip.

Just over a month ago, the block gas limit on the Ethereum main net has been increased from around 8 million to around 10 million. Back then I was asked whether there were any concerns about it. The response was that such increase should give us some useful data about the behaviour of the Ethereum users. The main question for me was: “Will this 25% increase in the block gas limit translate into an accelerated state growth?”. After waiting for a month, we can start trying to see whether this is in fact happening. Here I plotted couple of charts, valid as of yesterday, 20th of October, 2019. First one shows moving average of number of new accounts added per blocks (blue), superimposed on the chart of block gas limit (also moving average), red:

I would say it is inconclusive. Now the similar chart about the new storage items created per block:

Again, it is difficult to tell whether something significant has happened over this month.

We need more time and more data. So far it looks like acceleration did not happen just yet.