Did the Sultan mislead us by starting Ramadhān on Friday? (Part 1)
Deep-dive fact-finding research on controversies surrounding the commencement of Ramadhān 1441 AH in Nigeria.
I cringe at writing this but the need to dig to the bottom of the misconceptions regarding the commencement of Ramadhān on Friday, April 24, 2019, would not allow me to shy away from this dire religious responsibility.
Immediately the Sultan announced that the moon was sighted on Thursday evening, marking the start of Ramadhān in Nigeria, the volume and spate of “copy and paste” Arabic articles that bombarded my timeline was just too much for me. As if it wasn’t enough to rely wholeheartedly on the Sultan’s announcement to kickstart the holy month.
Was it truly impossible to have sighted the moon on Thursday? Is there any consensus of astronomers concluding so?
In this post, I will take one of the Arabic texts shared virally as a rebuttal of the possibility to sight the moon on Thursday, and conduct a basic analytical study of it. Since the piece is in Arabic, this post will have to alternate between Arabic and English, bringing out the writer’s arguments for interrogation in a peace-meal comparative manner.
Let’s begin.
فاجأتنا السلطات الدينية في عددٍ لا يستهان به من البلاد العربية والمسلمة بطلبها من الجمهور أن يتحري رؤية هلال رمضان يوم أمس الأربعاء الموافق 22 أبريل 2020 على أساس أن ذلك اليوم يتوافق مع يوم 29 شعبان2041ه، علماً أن الإقتران المركزي لم يحدث ذلك اليوم، بل حدث في الساعة 05:25 حسب التوقيت المحلي لمكة المكرمة يوم الخميس الموافق 23 أبريل.
Above is the opening of one of the posts copied from عبد الوهاب السناري. In summary, it expresses great shock at the public call by authorities of some Islamic countries to check for Ramadhān crescent on Wednesday, April 23, based on their calculation of the day as 29th of Sha’bān. The writer argued, astronomically, the impossibility of that, asserting that the “conjunction” of sun and moon did not happen that day. So it was impossible for the moon to have appeared at all.
To the above, below is a brief clarification that comes handy in exonerating Nigeria (particularly the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs headed by the Sultan) from such error as it would appear. The Director of International Astronomical Centre of Jordan, محمد شوكت عودة, explained in a long “astronomic” statement (available here: http://www.icoproject.org/articles/2020/04/18/ram41):
بالنسبة للدول التي ستتحرى الهلال يوم الأربعاء، فإن القمر سيغيب في ذلك اليوم قبل غروب الشمس وسيحدث الاقتران بعد غروب الشمس، أي أن رؤية الهلال مستحيلة بعد غروب شمس الأربعاء، وعليه فإن هذه الدول ستكمل عدة شعبان 30 يوما، وستبدأ شهر رمضان المبارك يوم الجمعة 24 أبريل
Translation:
As for the countries that will check the crescent on Wednesday, the moon will be absent on that day before sunset and the conjugation will happen afterwards. Meaning that it’s impossible to see the crescent after sunset on Wednesday. As such, these countries will complete their Sha’bān 30, while they will start Ramadhān on Friday, April 24.
It is noteworthy that the calculation which expected that Sha’bān would be 29 on Wednesday might be erroneous. This is clear from the retraction contained in the announcement by Saudi Arabia to look for Ramadhān crescent on Thursday, April 23, 2020, the 30th of Sha’bān 1441.
A news report (link: https://www.haramainsharifain.com/…/saudi-arabia-to-look-fo…) reads in part:
“The Supreme Court also stated that the entry into the month of Rajab was incorrect and therefore has ordered a sighting on 30th Sha’bān according to the Umm Al Qura Calendar.
Astronomers have said that the new moon will be born in the morning of 23rd April, however, the sighting of the Crescent will be difficult.”
Note that Saudi Arabia was not alone in the (wrong) calculation that — previously in the case of the kingdom — placed Sha’bān 29 on Wednesday, April 22, 2020. The rest of the countries (just a few of them) were mentioned by محمد شوكت عودة where he said:
وبدأت دول قليلة منها العراق ومصر وتركيا وتونس، شهر شعبان يوم الأربعاء 25 مارس، لذلك ستتحرى هلال رمضان يوم الأربعاء 22 أبريل.
Translation:
“A few countries including Iraq, Egypt, Turkey and Tunisia started Sha’bān on Wednesday 25 March, so they will look for Ramadhān crescent on Wednesday, April 22.”
With Saudi Arabia and/or Nigeria exempted from these countries, the scientific impossibility to spot the moon on that day is further explained in details by عبد الوهاب السناري in this part of his circulated piece:
يحدث الإقتران المركزي في اللحظة التي يقع فيها مركز الشمس في خط مستقيم بين مركزي القمر والأرض بحيث لا يتمكن الناظر للقمر من الأرض من رؤيته لأن الشمس ستقع وراءه وتسطع على وجهه المعاكس للأرض فتضيئه بينما يكون سطحه المقابل للأرض معتماً وغير مرئي بالنسبة لنا. وتمثل لحظة الإقتران المركزي في الحساب الفلكي زمن مولد القمر الجديد وبداية دورة قمرية جديدة، ويطلق على القمر الوليد إسم المحاق لأنه يمحق أو ينقص ولذا لا يمكن رؤيته.
بعيد الإقتران يبدأ القمر الوليد بالإبتعاد تدريجياً عن الشمس، وشيئاً فشيئاً ينعكس ضؤ الشمس عليه ليضيئ ذلك الجزء الذي انعكس عليه ضوء الشمس مكوناً الهلال. ولا يمكن رؤية ذلك الهلال الوليد بالمناظير المكبرة إلا إذا كان عمره (عمر الهلال يمثل الفترة الزمنية بين لحظتي الإقتران المركزي وغروب الشمس) أكثر من 12 ساعة وإلا إذا مكث ذلك الهلال بعد مغيب الشمس لأكثر من 30 دقيقة … ففي الأربعاء الموافق 22 أبريل 2020 غابت الشمس في مكة المكرمة في الساعة 18:41 وغاب القمر في الساعة 18:15 بالتوقيت المحلي، أي أن القمر غرب قبل 26 دقيقة من غروب الشمس! فمن منكم رأى الهلال قبل مغيب الشمس؟
Translation:
“The central conjunction occurs at the moment when the centre of the sun is located in a straight line between the centres of the moon and the earth such that the moon is invisible from the Earth because the sun will fall behind it and shine on its opposite side of the earth, illuminating it while its surface opposite the Earth is opaque and invisible to human eyes us. The moment of the central conjunction in the astronomical calculation represents the time of the birth of the new moon and the beginning of a new lunar cycle. The new moon is called a waning crescent because it is faded and invisible.
After the conjunction, the new-born moon begins to gradually move away from the sun. Little by little, the sun’s light is reflected on it, making that part of the moon to project light as a crescent. The new crescent cannot be seen with telescopes unless its age (the age of the crescent represents the time period between the two moments of central conjunction and sunset) is more than 12 hours, and only if that crescent stayed after sunset for more than 30 minutes. On Wednesday, April 22, 2020, as such, the sun went out in Makkah Al-Mukarramah at 18:41 and the moon disappeared at 18:15 local time, meaning the moon set 26 minutes before sunset! Who then among you saw the crescent before sunset?”
Please note that the whole of this part of the astronomical analysis is entirely focused on Wednesday, April 22, 2020.
Now, the concern of this piece would be the possibility/validity or otherwise of the sighting of Ramadhān crescent in Nigeria on Thursday, April 23. As you already know, some of our brothers are of vehement disagreement with that, relying on research works and publications of the likes of عبد الوهاب السنار who says, continuing:
ستستحيل رؤية الهلال حتي يوم الخميس الموافق 24 أبريل لأن الشمس ستغيب الشمس في الساعة 18:43 بينما سيغيب القمر في الساعة 19:06، أي أنه سيمكث لمدة 23 دقيقة بعد مغيب الشمس ولأن عمر الهلال عند مغيب الشمس سيكون 13 ساعة و18 دقيقة. وعليه ستستحيل رؤية الهلال هذا اليوم في مكة المكرمة لا بالعين المجردة أو بالمناظير المكبرة. وعليه سيكون يوم السبت الموافق 25 أبريل أول أيام شهر رمضان المعظم.
Translation:
It would be impossible to see the moon until Thursday, April 24, because the sun will set by 18:43 while the moon will do so by 19:06, meaning that the moon would wait for 23 minutes after sunset, and because the age of the crescent at sunset will just be 13 hours and 18 minutes. Therefore, it would be impossible to see the moon on this day in Mecca, neither with the naked eye nor binocular microscopes, thereby making Saturday, April 25, the first of Ramadhān.
Please underline Thursday and Mecca in the above analysis.
In what is adoptable as clarification on the foregoing analysis, the statement by محمد شوكت عودة reads:
رؤية الهلال يوم الخميس غير ممكنة بالعين المجردة من أي مكان في العالم الإسلامي، في حين أنها ممكنة باستخدام التلسكوب فقط وبصعوبة بالغة من أجزاء من السودان وليبيا والجزائر ومن المغرب وموريتانيا. ورؤية الهلال يومها ممكنة بالعين المجردة بصعوبة في أجزاء من القارتين الأميركيتين. كما أن رؤية الهلال يومها باستخدام تقنية التصوير الفلكي ممكنة بصعوبة كبيرة.
حيث أن هناك إمكانية لرؤية الهلال من أجزاء من العالم الإسلامي يوم الخميس، فيتوقع أن يكون يوم الجمعة 24 أبريل بداية شهر رمضان المبارك في معظم الدول الإسلامية”.
Translation:
“It will be impossible to sight the moon with the unaided eye in any part of the Muslim world on Thursday, but it is possible with the aid of a telescope, albeit with difficulty, in some parts of Sudan, Libya, Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania. The sighting of the moon on its first day with the naked eye is also possible in some parts of North and South America albeit with difficulty, just as it is possible with astronomical technology with difficultly.
There is the possibility to sight the moon in some parts of the Muslim world on Thursday thereby making Friday, April 24, the first day of Ramadhān in most of the Muslim countries”
This astronomer did not only submit that it is possible to spot the crescent on Thursday, but he also asserted that the majority of Muslim countries will commence Ramadhān on Friday.
Now, how many countries corroborated Nigeria on the Friday commencement, and do they have any scientific proof?
From Qatar to Egypt, Indonesia, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE (following KSA) and many others, Ramadhān began in the vast majority of the Muslim world on Friday, April 24. What’s more, Muslim communities in the United States and Europe started on the same day based on their own astronomical calculations.
Countries that started on Friday are Iran, Lebanon and Oman.
According to the Qatar Calendar House, calculations by astronomers reveal that Ramadhān new moon will be born on Wednesday, April 23 at 02:27 GMT. In countries like Turkey, satellites are used to arrive at these conclusions.
Research from the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office show that the moon will only be visible to the naked eye in Central, North and South America, and telescopes in other parts of the world, whereas it would become easily spotted with eyes on Friday, April, 24, even though it would still need optical aids to be seen in some regions of the world while not visible at all in others even with the use of a conventional telescope (on Friday).
Let me point out that محمد شوكت عودة indeed noted—after the earlier confirmation that majority of Muslim countries will start Ramadhān on Friday, April 24—that it would be impossible for Jakarta, UAE, Mecca, Oman and Egypt to sight the moon on Thursday, neither with the naked eye nor any technological tool. He noted this while re-affirming that the moon can be sighted in Morocco and Khartoum with the aid of technology.
ورؤية الهلال يوم الخميس من جاكرتا وأبوظبي ومكة المكرمة وعمّان والقاهرة غير ممكنة لا بالعين المجردة ولا بالتلسكوب. في حين أن رؤية الهلال من الرباط والخرطوم ممكنة باستخدام التلسكوب فقط وبصعوبة بالغة.
Using this as a premise, it is plausible that Nigeria did not follow Saudi Arabia on this subject matter, but relied independently on its own, as the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs has its own well-equipped and functional National Moonsighting Committee. In my personal view, this astronomer might have included Nigeria in the list of countries where possible to sight the moon if it were an Islamic country like Morocco, Sudan, etc.
Concluding this part of the post, it will be a great shortcoming if I fail to mention that moonsighting has been politicized.
To be continued…
