Trump’s Presidency is Doomed
An Obscure 1990’s Conviction Shows the Way
James Barron was a two-bit carnie hustler who operated in Ft. Lauderdale in the early 1990’s. He received irregular payments from DEA agents for information.
Barron wasn’t a successful hustler. He wanted to buy a used Camaro but couldn’t afford it. He went to Sun Trust Bank and asked for a loan. Under employer’s name, he wrote, “DEA.” The bank officer was dubious, but Barron showed him a DEA check. The bank officer had never seen a DEA payroll check so he believed Barron’s story.
Later, Barron was arrested on another matter and convicted for the federal crime of misapplication of bank funds. Essentially, whenever you tell a lie to a federally-insured bank you commit a felony. Barron’s lie was that he was a DEA employee. It perhaps wasn’t that far from the truth, but no one had heard about the “gig economy” in the early 1990’s, and Barron couldn’t tell his side of the story because of a lengthy criminal history that Judge James Payne kept away from the jury in the interests of fairness. Barron was convicted anyway.
The take-away from this story is that all you need to do to commit a federal banking felony is lie to the bank. That’s it. These cases are extremely difficult to defend, because just as most people don’t know that it’s a federal felony to lie to the FBI (Martha Stewart) hardly anyone knows that it’s a federal felony to lie to a bank.
“Donald Trump had an affair with me,” says actress Stormy Daniels. Trump told his lawyer Michael Cohen to take care of it. Cohen drafted a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) and paid Ms. Daniels $130,000 to keep her mouth shut.
Trump was not the source of the money. Cohen didn’t have enough money in his checking account either, so he went to a bank and applied for a mortgage. He didn’t tell the bank he needed the money to pay Stormy Daniels. I do not know what lie he concocted, but I am sure that Daniels’ name or the NDA were not mentioned. That’s when the felony was committed.
The bank fraud felony has nothing to do with Robert Mueller or his investigation. It has nothing to do with Vladimir Putin, the Russians, spycraft, Iran or Syria. This is a run of the mill bank fraud. A first year prosecutor could handle the case easily.
So this is how the case plays out:
Cohen will hire a lawyer. The lawyer will file several motions claiming that the search of Cohen’s office was illegal. These will go nowhere, but the lawyer has to do something to justify his fee. After the motions to suppress go nowhere — though likely just before — Cohen and his lawyer will have a secret meeting at the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan.
At the meeting, there will be at least two prosecutors and probably two FBI agents. They will all sit around a table. On the table there will be a copy of two documents: Cohen’s mortgage application and the canceled check, payable to Stormy Daniels. Cohen’s lawyer will ask for a deal. The prosecutors will have prepared a “queen for a day” letter. That letter will confer a type of immunity on Cohen for what he tells the prosecutors and agents that day. They will make no promises about what punishment they are looking for.
Before the meeting, Cohen’s lawyer will speak to the prosecutors and describe generally what he thinks Cohen knows. “If my client were to testify to that,” he will say, “he wants no jail time.” The prosecutors may or may not agree to this. Cohen’s law career is over. Whether or not he pleads guilty to a felony, or if his lawyer is successful in knocking the charges down to a misdemeanor level, the New York Supreme Court will take away his license.
But they are only interested in one question:
“Did Trump know?”
If the answer is ‘yes’ — how could it not be? — there is a new charge of conspiracy and Trump is a co-conspiring felon. Impeachment, after the indictment of Trump, will just be a formality.
It is inconceivable that the answer is ‘no.’ Trump has only one way out of this. It is possible that Cohen will say, no deal, and in view of the loss of his license, remain loyal to Trump. But it might not matter anyway if there are documents taken during the law office search which show that Trump knew. Or Trump could pardon Cohen now. It will look bad, but then the prosecutors can no longer obtain Cohen’s cooperation. There still might be enough to indict Trump, but they really need Cohen.
I suppose that it is also possible that Trump told Cohen, “take care of it” but gave him no directions as to the matter and paid no attention afterwards. Cohen took out a $130,000 mortgage on his house because he liked Trump. He never expected to be reimbursed. Sure.
So unless Cohen is pardoned, Trump will be forced out of the presidency.
You heard it first here.
There is a slight chance that Cohen already had a line of credit or an existing home equity loan. But it is unlikely that his bank would give him $130,000 without asking what the money was for. The fact that the bank reported the transaction as “suspicious” means that Cohen didn’t give the bank a reasonable explanation for the funds, such as a major remodeling project. Though it is also possible that Cohen wrote, “funds needed for NDA payoff” on his mortgage application, in which case you can ignore all of the above and I apologize.
