Oft-quoted statistics are if you have 10 companies shooting for the moon, 9 will fail and 1 will hit it. Thus paying for all the others.

What are the statistics for 10 companies shooting for $2-$10M and coming in higher than that? They likely will have fewer failures (lower risk), and one or more may discover more customers interested than first anticipated.

Would be interesting to do an expected return analysis of the 2 different approaches based on prior results.