In the field of futures and foresight, we investigate a range of different images of the future — that is, different representations of the collective state of things of a society as a whole in all of its aspects in the future, usually in the form of scenarios. Since we are exposed to many of them, some of us also try to promote those images that are a bit “brighter”, or more optimist than others, the so called “positive images of the future”, because that is assumed to be good. …

When I was producing a video on the different uses of science fiction as a form of foresight, I struggled to make sense of the differences and similarities between three seemingly overlapping and oftentimes conflated practices: science fiction prototyping, design fiction and worldbuilding. As the interest in using these practices to innovate products, inspire and engage audiences, and expand the boundaries of imagination about the futures is increasing among scholars and practitioners alike, it behooves to us to distinguish them. Indeed, although each of these practices draw substantially from science fiction, they also exhibit salient differences. Thus, in what follows…

You might have heard that science fiction can be used as a foresight method, or that foresight practice can draw from science fiction to imagine the futures. In fact, in the past decade the interest in using science fiction as a form of foresight has skyrocketed, and many organizations have been reported doing it, including Google, Microsoft, Apple, Visa, Ford, Pepsi, Samsung, Nike, Ford, Hershey’s, Lowe’s and Boeing, among others [1–4].

But what does it mean to use science fiction as a form of foresight? in this article I will try to explain how this is possible by sharing…

Often times, when attending introductory talks or workshops on futures studies, foresight, or scenario planning (from now, futures & foresight for short), I’ve noticed that the speaker would attempt to endear the audience to futures & foresight by stating upfront that, in its simplest form, this field of inquiry is something that human beings already do every day, not dissimilar to thinking about possible future career options, or about different times to do grocery shopping the next day. I also noticed that such attempts would often have a counterproductive effect. Unless this issue is deliberately clarified, the audience would…

Moving from scenarios to strategy is an important but often not fully understood link. Indeed, a lot of organizational foresight work stops after the creation of scenarios, while in reality scenarios should be used to change or improve strategy. This link is problematic for several reasons. Lack of appropriate communication between the scenario team and the right level of management, halting of monetary resources during the scenario planning process, limits of time, etc. are all exogenous factors that may affect the transfer of knowledge from scenarios to strategy. However, perhaps the most detrimental factor is endogenous, i.e. an inherent…

How would the future look like if scientific research were automated, data about the past and present were analyzed automatically in real-time, and academia were exclusively focused on studying potential long-term futures? In this scenario, what side effects of such advancements in automation would we see? This story is a day-in-life vignette inspired by the answers to these questions.

“Jim!, come on in, I’ve been waiting for you”, “Actually, I’d like to take a walk…I’ve been sitting here too long, let’s chat somewhere else do you mind?”

“Yeah, sure”

The professor turned his right palm upwards, activating his holographic interface. Looking at the top right corner of the panel, he selected a gallery of location portals, that swiftly slipped into the center of the room. …

In this article, I will try to make some clarity on the various activities carried out at the very beginning of foresight practice to look for the forces of change in the environment before creating scenario narratives. All these activities fall under the umbrella term of “scanning”. However, under that umbrella term, different terms, such as “environmental scanning”, “horizon scanning”, “emerging issues analysis”, etc. involve rather distinct scanning practices, so I will attempt to demystify what each term means and involves, with a special focus on the often misunderstood difference between environmental scanning and horizon scanning. …

This story was translated into Italian

In this article I will attempt to lift the very thick veneer of confusion, often found in online reports, practitioners guides, journal articles, and futures & foresight videos and courses, about three major scenario planning methods: the 4 archetypes method, the Shell approach, and the 2x2 matrix. I will demystify and explain how the scenario narratives creation process is carried out with these methods using evidence, compare them, and explain when, based on my personal experience, you should use which method. I’ve chosen these methods as they are arguably the most widely used…