5.10 Wrapping Up.

Our Goal

The goal of this project was simple — but ambitious: To test a hypothesis that something profoundly dangerous may be happening to American democracy right now, using facts, precedent, and logic — not feelings, echo chambers, or ideology.

Not to make you believe what I believe. But to give you the tools to test it yourself. To “check my math.”

I wanted to take this entire process out of the realm of conspiracy and into the realm of analysis. So I used history, public information, and six different LLMs — each with different priorities, training sets, and ideologies — to walk through a set of structured questions anyone can replicate.

At each step, you had the opportunity to:

• Ask the exact same questions I asked.
• Modify them to your liking.
• Compare results across multiple AIs.
• See what holds up — and what doesn’t.

And now, we’re at the final checkpoint.

What We Did

Here’s a quick recap of the steps we walked through:

1. Identified the historical playbook → What are the common steps taken by leaders who dismantle democracies?
2. Mapped those steps to the U.S. → Hypothetically, how might those steps be followed in an American context?
3. Assessed where we are now → Based on observable events, how far into this playbook are we?
4. Predicted what might come next → If someone were following this roadmap, what steps would logically follow?
5. Cross-checked current actions against that list → Have any recent policies, executive orders, or rhetoric aligned with those steps?
6. Estimated the probability of a legal coup currently underway → Based on all of the above, how likely is it that this isn’t just drift — but a real shift?
7. Estimated the probability of a triggering event: invocation of the Insurrection Act → What’s the likelihood this legal power will be invoked in the near future?
8. Recalculated the coup probability if that happens → If the Insurrection Act is invoked, what does that do to the odds?
9. Explored whether authoritarian regimes stay loyal to their supporters → Spoiler: they don’t.

Top Takeaways (by Step)

Step 1: The Authoritarian Playbook: Authoritarian transitions almost always happen through legal means, not coups. They follow a stepwise pattern: discredit institutions, exploit crises, centralize power, silence dissent, and rewrite the rules.

Step 2: U.S. Mapping: Multiple LLMs agreed: it’s absolutely plausible to apply this pattern to the U.S. Most steps can be followed using powers already available to the executive branch.

Step 3: Where Are We? Most LLMs estimated that the U.S. is 30–50% of the way through the authoritarian playbook already, with signs of democratic backsliding in progress. No LLM put the likelihood at 0%.

Step 4: Next Steps If Intentional: All LLMs identified one clear escalation point: invoking the Insurrection Act, especially to address immigration or civil unrest, under vague or politically motivated terms.

Step 5: Real-World Alignment:Trump’s executive orders, rhetoric, and revived policies (e.g. Schedule F, Project 2025) show direct alignment with historical steps taken by leaders attempting to dismantle democratic systems.

Step 6: Current Legal Coup Probability: Estimates across LLMs converged in the 35–50% range. This means not certain — but very much not nothing.

Step 7: Insurrection Act Invocation Probability: Likelihood ranged from 10–60%, with most placing it between 30–50% based on current trends and scheduled reporting deadlines.

Step 8: Coup Probability If Insurrection Act Is Invoked: Every LLM agreed: this would be a critical inflection point. If Trump invokes the Act, estimates of a legal coup in progress jumped to 55–80%.

Step 9: Will Authoritarians Stay Loyal to Supporters? No. They never do. History is filled with examples of revolutions turning inward and consuming their base. Once power is centralized, loyalty is demanded — not rewarded.

So Where Are We Now?

There is a non-zero and non-trivial chance that we are in the midst of a legal authoritarian transition.

Today, based on current conditions:

🔴 Estimated Probability of a Legal Coup in Progress: 40–50%

🔥If Insurrection Act Is Invoked Updated Probability: 65–75%

Let that sink in. That’s not alarmism. That’s pattern recognition.

How Intelligence Agencies Interpret Risk at These Levels

In the world of intelligence and national security:

• A 10–20% chance of a catastrophic event (like terrorism or nuclear escalation) is treated as urgent and requires contingency planning.
• A 40–50% probability of systemic threat? That’s DEFCON-level attention.
• 70%??? That’s “assume it’s already happening unless disproven.”

No intelligence analyst would shrug at these numbers. They’d be briefing leadership. Running simulations. Mobilizing safeguards.

So what should we do?

🔦 What You Can Do

• Stay informed. Not just by watching cable news — but by checking sources, reading laws, and asking smart questions.
• Share the tools. Give others access to this process. Help them “check the math,” too.
• Spread the Word. Tell others what a Legal Coup looks like based on what all LLMs defined. Then tell everyone you can about where we stand.
• Speak up. Peacefully. Legally. Relentlessly.
• Support democracy with action, not just concern. That might mean volunteering, donating, protesting, voting, or protecting civil liberties at the local level.
• Don’t be afraid — but don’t be asleep.

This isn’t about being dramatic. It’s about being prepared, honest, and clear-eyed.

Democracy doesn’t die in darkness. It dies when we stop doing the work of keeping it alive.

Let’s keep doing the work.

Together.

You are NOT alone.

But we need to bring in as many others as we can to resist what’s happening.

That’s the most important way you can help.

Previous Posts in this Series: Their Coup Playbook: How They Quietly Kill the Constitution and Democracy in the Coming Weeks and Months

• Part 1: On April 20th, 2025, the United States Will Cross the Point of No Return.
• Part 2: If the Shit Actually Hits the Fan.
• Part 3: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’ (The Director’s Cut)
• Part 3A: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’ (The TLDR: version.)
• Part 4: A Shopping List for the Unthinkable.
• Part 5: Check My Math: A Step-by-Step Guide to Evaluating the Risk of Authoritarianism in the U.S.