Part 3A: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’ The TLDR: version.

4 min readMar 31, 2025

So, I’ve gotten some strong engagement with my earlier posts about the possibility of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act, and the dominoes that might fall afterward. For those just joining, here’s the context. I’m calling this series:

Their Coup Playbook: How They Quietly Kill the Constitution and Democracy in the Coming Weeks and Months

Why I’m Writing

My goal is simple: raise awareness of what I see as a very real possibility — a coup, executed within the bounds of executive authority and legal gray zones, with the Insurrection Act as the opening move.

It matches historical patterns. And it fits too well with the actions and interests of those in power.

I’m not an insider. I have no platform. Just a blog, and the creeping feeling that the house is on fire and no one else is yelling.

Call it paranoia. I’ve asked myself that a lot. But with every step this administration takes, the crazy version starts looking more like the real one.

Check My Math

Shortly I’ll be publishing a separate, detailed breakdown of the facts, with instructions on how to plug what I’m providing into the LLMs of your choice to assess whether my assumptions and estimates probabilties hold up.

You can challenge everything I’ve done. You should.

Look at the data. Plug it into any LLM or model you want. Ask questions.

If I’m wrong, great.

But if I’m not — we have a short runway.

Preparing for the Worst

If Trump does invoke the Act, even with a pretext of “border victory,” it opens the door to everything that follows — martial law, suspended elections, full consolidation of power.

Even if his advisors say not to, he’ll do what serves him best in that moment. His loyalty is only to himself. And once the machinery of state control starts rolling, it’s not likely to stop.

Propaganda is already in overdrive. The stage is being set — demonization of protestors, vilification of the “woke left,” normalization of extraordinary powers.

One act of violence — especially one blamed on the left — could seal the deal.

What Changed My Mind

A month ago, I didn’t think it could happen here. I said as much. I thought the system would hold. It usually does.

Then I started reading about the men behind Trump — Musk, Thiel, Andreessen, Anton, Bannon, Vance. Not just supporters, but believers. They’ve bought into a philosophy of post-democracy: techno-feudalism wrapped in the flag.

If you haven’t read it yet, go read “The Philosophy Behind DOGE” by KeepTrack. It connects the dots between Curtis Yarvin’s ideas and the billionaires backing them. (Also as a reddit post.)

These aren’t conspiracies. They aren’t conspiracies anymore when people write it all down. They say it aloud. And now their followers are in top roles in the Trump administration. They even held an event called “The Coronation” at the Watergate.

You can’t make this up.

Strategic Alliances: MAGA + Tech Oligarchs + Russia

This isn’t just MAGA nonsense anymore. That was always the sideshow. The real power now lies with two groups:

Techno-libertarian billionaires who want to rule from private city-states.
Foreign actors like Russia, who benefit from a fractured, weakened America.

They’re not formally aligned — but they don’t have to be. Their goals overlap enough: disrupt, destabilize, and gain.

They are using MAGA as a mean to an end. Tapping into real and even justified resentment of elites, to destroy the whole system, for their own purposes.

They’ll turn on each other eventually, sure. But not until the old system is dead.

Okay, So What Now?

Let’s talk prep. Practical steps.

You don’t have to believe everything above to see that systems are fragile. That bad actors exist. That supply chains and power grids can fail… or be taken down deliberately to crush resistance.

My next post provides a useful — if somewhat scary — guide for prepping for what might be coming with limited money and time.

Next Post: Part 4: A Shopping List for the Unthinkable