Part 4: A Shopping List for the Unthinkable.

You should probably plan to stay put if things go to Hell. Here's what to consider either way.

In my last post (long version, short version), I wound up taking the time to really get into the details of what convinced me this is a serious situation.

The purpose of that was to help you better decide whether this is just craziness from some old crank on the east coast screaming about End of Days and Black Helicopters (Although you still shouldn’t discount that as a real possibility. I sure haven’t.), or whether it’s something you, too, need to consider as a real possibility.

Now that that’s been done, you now have a bigger data set to use to assess my level of crazy with a greater level of confidence on a scale 1–10.

And we’ll move on.

So, what are the actual steps you can take now to prepare, given the chance (1%? 10%? 50%?) of the grim options we are all going to have to choose from if Shit Goes Down?

Read This. Seriously!

This shit that follows in this post gets heavy.

Really heavy.

If you are a person who is anxious, has trauma, or worries too much… you might seriously NOT want to read what follows. I guess this is a Trigger Warning. But I am going to go into some scenarios — purely speculative, purely the opinion of some guy you’ve never met, who could have nefarious purposes, or could be a troll trying to cause panic, and getting people worked up — that could be difficult to contemplate.

If you are having trouble dealing with things as they are NOW, you may be a lot better off not going the dark places I’m about to go where I outline just how bad they can become.

If that is you, please stop here. If you really want to know, have a trusted person read it for you, and tell you what you need to know.

I am not trying to cause harm. I am not trying to get people upset. And I could be causing more harm by writing all this stuff down than I would be by doing nothing, especially in the significant — even likely — case that I am wrong.

You don’t know. You don’t know me, or my real intentions. I could be a hostile-state-actor trying to cause panic, discord, demoralization. Even though I’ve tried to give some real information about me and where I’m coming from, and how I came to be writing this stuff, to give you some more data to assess and make a solid judgement.

But you don’t know.

But seriously, if you don’t feel up to really thinking worst-case scenarios, please stop here.

And one other point to share that just came up, in case you want to decide to stop reading here…

A kind person on Medium just commented on my Point of No Return post. There may be more chance this person is right than I am. I am sharing the first half of their comment here:

“…you should be ashamed of yourself for publishing this paranoid garbage.

You should fear for your own terrible karma in pouring nightmare fuel onto the paranoid nutjobs who will be misled by this vicious and bitter propaganda of yours, which is based on nothing but your own cynical and malignant speculations.

When none of your sick fantasy here plays out, consider never writing anything else ever again.”

There’s more, and you can read the full comment here. I quote it because their opinion may be the correct one.

But even more than that, they are right about one thing: What I am writing is speculation. Complete speculation. I’ll share in even more detail how I reached my conclusions in my next post, and you can pressure test them yourself. I think there’s more here than just paranoid fantasies. But a person with paranoid fantasies would say that, wouldn’t they? So, take a whole shaker of salt with what I write.

Finally, as you read this what follows, consider everything “what-if” scenarios. Worst case scenarios.

I am trying to give advice of what we are looking at, what it means for you, if… the unthinkable happens.

Again, a few suggested rules for as you continue reading:

#1 Do NOT panic. As you read the stuff below, imagine you are reading the outline of a Tom Clancy novel or something, and decide if there’s anything worth taking into account.

#2 This post suggests what things will look like if this crazy, speculative coup succeeds. It may not. There may not even be an attempted coup. Everything I’ve written may just turn out to be rantings of a crazy person. As I’ve said probably too many times at this point: I sure hope so. But if I’m not wrong, then I feel a sense of obligation to share what things look like, so we can prepare.

#3 If I am not wrong, then the only way we can really stop this is to find a way to show, to prove, that what we are in is an orchestrated coup. We need to show the playbook as broadly as you can. Expose it. Make people realize it’s a coup, recognize what’s happening, and not cooperate, call it out for what it is. All it takes for bad people to succeed is for good people to let them do it. We need to make it clear to even the people who would otherwise support it what is going on. It has to be such a weight of evidence that even the most ideological person struggles to reject it.

So. Concrete Steps to Prepare.

What you can (and should) do right now to prepare.

Yeah, great. Congratulations. We are now moving into the world of Doomsday Preppers.

Most of us — including me — have always considered these folks bonkers, or at least paranoid.

I wonder if I’ll get issued a cool new membership card. I hope it’s laminated and spells my name right. It is a tough one, I admit.

Here’s What We May Be In For If Things Really Go To Shit.

Here are some things I’ve belatedly realized as I (again, unbelievably) started to think about this, and how bad things could get.

We are all incredibly vulnerable in this modern society. Seriously.

1. Few of us could survive for long without power and water.

• Most of us have less than 2 days of food in the house.
• We depend on electricity for everything.
• We depend on the internet for information.
• No power + martial law makes no toilet paper one of your lesser problems. Supply chains won’t just be strained, they will be blocked.
• And no power… no banks… no credit cards. No Venmo. You cannot get to your money. UberEats deliveries will not be bringing you sushi.
• Without these things, we are cut off, alone, out of control. And unable to resist.
• And another thing most Americans have never experienced is hunger. Try it now. Don’t eat for two days. You probably can’t imagine it, but if you haven’t eaten for several days, and your kids haven’t eaten for a few days… your priorities will change like you’ve never imagined.
• While we never thought about any of this stuff, people who have been planning how to take over and silence dissent probably have been. For years.

2. If they go in and shut down the internet, power, and water… how can we help each other, much less mount a defense, if we can’t even talk to each other?

• And that made me realize… we all probably need survival kits. But…
• Some of us — perhaps most — don’t have much money to spare.
• But regardless… what are the absolute basics we need?

3. And then… Martial Law is coming if (when) things collapse.

• There will be martial law. Military, police, homeland security, and ICE will be activated to “restore order,” likely with militia “assistance.”
• This assistance will sort people into groups as they decide who gets food… and who gets detained, or left to starve. There are the loyal, and the threats. Which group will you and your family fall into?

Some Correlated Evidence

I have been trying to not reveal too much about myself, in the vain hope I can avoid getting picked up. Pretty much too late, probably, I’ve said too much and not been careful enough. So be it.

But here’s a personal story from a month or two back, that the right person reading it could probably connect to me.

I live in a purple area. About evenly split between parties in both our neighborhood, and our county.

I have a neighbor, I’d almost call him a friend, who is a retired military officer, and veteran of both Afghanistan and Iraq. He was in combat zones and did 6 or 8 tours. I believe he was wounded, possibly an IED, but he doesn’t talk about it.

He is very involved with other veterans, and is a huge MAGA supporter.

He told me — unprompted, I try not to talk politics with neighbors — that he expects a Civil War, and he and his other VFW friends are starting to prepare.

I think you can guess which side they will be on.

I dismissed him as a crank at the time. Crazy talk.

That was then. I miss those carefree days of youth... Now… now I think he’s right.

And he’s the guy I’m going to be up against on the other side.

To be clear: He is a good guy. A really good guy. A stand-up American. He will be there for you if your car breaks down, or you need to take your old refrigerator to the scrap yard.

But he stands with Trump, and believes everything Fox News tells him. He knows in his heart, as absolute truth, that the liberal media and establishment hate America, hate him, looks down on him, dismisses his values, and want to impose cultural changes that ignore or undermine the way of life that made America great. Bad people have taken over the media, the colleges, and the government at all levels to impose their will undemocratically and through the deep state on him and other decent people. They have been under siege. Now as Trump tries to root them out, they are desperate, rising up for dark purposes, and good Americans need to heed the call to support the good guys. He’s all for standing up to these dark forces.

Pity it got to that. Not a damn thing to do about it now at this late date. 30% of the country can’t talk to another 30%, and the other 40% don’t have a clue what to do or just don’t care.

He brings up politics constantly, every time I see him. I don’t engage too deeply, just making vague noises of, “Trump good, woke liberals bad.” I have been unsuccessful in introducing any cracks in his ideology.

And when the time comes, he and other veterans, who largely lean red, will take up their guns and volunteer to assist police, or even join existing militias to restore order.

<stares into space> Crazy train. I have boarded the crazy train. I… but. No. This is not me saying this. This is a guy I’ve known for 25 years. I… Am I the crazy one? Readers, you tell me.

So.

On the off chance things really go bad, other people are already thinking about this.

Maybe it’s one chance in 10? In 100? In 1,000? One in 5? In 3? As I’ll say in another post, the chance really should be zero. That it’s not, and most of agree, says that if we can, we need to think about what we need to do to prepare.

I’ll talk some more about our set of (bad) choices if guys like my buddy sign up to restore order. For now, we’ll move on.

There are endless scenarios of how things might go bad.

Let’s start with answering a key, minimum question: What do you need to tough it out for 30 days?

List #1: Minimum Survival List for 30 Days

Here is a list of things you need to prepare in advance for yourself or if you have a family, if you need to take care of yourselves for 30 days, and everything is shut down.

I picked a budget number: $250 for one person, $500 for a family.

• This list assumes you will shelter in place, and you have basic household items (pots, utensils, etc.).
• If staying warm is a concern, extra blankets or a propane heater might be worth adjusting the budget for.
• A small hand-crank radio could be useful if you can stretch the budget a little further.

This is a list for folks who are planning to shelter in place, and probably not resist what’s coming. It’s also a list for folks who might consider other options.

All of these items will become extremely desirable barter items and even bribes, whether you stay where you are or if you are trying to get out.

Single Person Survival Kit ($250 Budget)

1. Water & Purification ($40)

The average person needs between 2–3 liters of water a day. In a hot climate or if active, you’ll need 4–6 liters/day. Let’s call it a gallon a day.

Kids and the elderly may need less.

That’s a lot of water.

But, if water supplies were turned off or something happens to them… what does one do?

Here are options:

• 30 gallons of bottled water (~$15), or,
• Water purification tablets (~$20-$30 for 90 tablets, enough to purify about 30 gallons of water), or,
• Small portable water filter (e.g., LifeStraw, ~$15 — filters up to 1,000 gallons of water, but other options have hand pumps so you can fill cooking pots and are probably better.)

Water filtration devices are clearly the best option. There are many options. You’ll notice I am not providing links. I am not trying to make any money off of this with affiliate links or anything, and I don’t want anyone to think I am. You can search for these online yourself. I may start a page with links separately, maybe add affiliate links so I can pay someone to get social media posts about this stuff up for me. Tell me what you think.

2. Food ($100)

Rice, beans. and oatmeal in bulk are probably the most economical and important items to get if you can’t afford anything else. Not fancy, but the goal is to avoid starving, especially if you have kids.

• Rice (10 lbs, ~$10)
• Dried beans (10 lbs, ~$10)
• Peanut butter (2 jars, ~$10)
• Canned meats (tuna, chicken, Spam, ~$30)
• Canned vegetables (~$10)
• Oatmeal (large container, ~$5)
• Multivitamins (~$10)
• Cooking oil (~$5)
• Salt and seasonings (~$5)

3. Cooking & Fire ($40)

You will need a way to boil water to cook dried rice and beans, or to purify water if you don’t have another water purification option. You may also need it if it is cold, or to get a fire going.

• Most of us don’t know how to make a fire, and don’t camp. So, take the time now to watch a few videos online if you don’t know. Assume YouTube will not be accessible. Maybe get a printed Boy Scout Handbook now.
• Portable butane stove (~$25)
• 4–6 butane fuel canisters (~$15)

4. Shelter & Warmth ($30)

You may already have everything you need at home if you aren’t going anywhere. But if you plan to be mobile, you will need to stay warm at night. At the minimum you can use an emergency mylar blanket, but a sleeping bag with pad is better, if you can manage it. Pads are important both for insulation against the ground, and for better sleep to take pressure off pressure points.

• Mylar emergency blankets (2-pack, ~$10)
• Compact sleeping bag (~$20) and pad ($20+) if you plan to be mobile.

5. Hygiene & Medical ($20)

• Bar soap, toothpaste, toothbrush (~$5)
• Feminine Hygiene Products (If appropriate, 30 day supply)
• Pack of baby wipes (~$5)
• Basic first-aid kit (~$10)

6. Light & Power ($20)

Few of us have really spent any time with no electricity. You may be shocked how dark it is, and if your phone and watch dies, you don’t have a flashlight.

• Flashlight + extra batteries (~$15).
• Candles (~$5)
• Consider rechargeable solar charger ($30) for batteries or devices.

List #2: Family of Four Survival Kit ($500 Budget)

I did not repeat the comments I made for each recommendations group above.

1. Water & Purification ($80)

• 60 gallons of bottled water (~$30)
• Water purification tablets (~$10)
• Large gravity-fed water filter (~$40)

2. Food ($200)

• Rice (25 lbs, ~$25)
• Dried beans (25 lbs, ~$25)
• Peanut butter (4 jars, ~$20)
• Canned meats (tuna, chicken, Spam, ~$50)
• Canned vegetables (~$20)
• Pasta (10 lbs, ~$10)
• Oatmeal (2 large containers, ~$10)
• Multivitamins (~$20)
• Cooking oil (~$10)
• Salt and seasonings (~$10)

3. Cooking & Fire ($60)

• Portable butane stove (~$25)
• 8–10 butane fuel canisters (~$35)

4. Shelter & Warmth ($50)

• Mylar emergency blankets (4-pack, ~$20)
• 2 compact sleeping bags (~$30)

5. Hygiene & Medical ($40)

• Bar soap, toothpaste, toothbrushes (~$10)
• Feminine Hygiene Products (If appropriate, 30 day supply)
• Pack of baby wipes (~$10)
• Basic first-aid kit (~$20)

6. Light & Power ($50)

• Flashlights (2) + extra batteries (~$20)
• Candles (~$10)
• Small solar charger (~$20)

Will the Power go out?

Continuing on the cheerful theme of Doomsday Nightmare Scenarios, there are so many different thing that could happen, some worse than others.

It could be none of this happens. So ask yourself: are you feeling lucky, punk?

I am hoping that this is all paranoia, Trump and Musk and Thiel and Vance are really just big cuddly grandfathers who want the best for all their fellow citizens, even those they don’t agree with politically, and we are about to enter a new age of smaller government and general prosperity.

There’s a part of me, the part that wants to believe this is all impossible, that says, “Dude, chill, that’s almost certainly the case.”

And then there’s an increasingly loud part of me that’s asking, “But what if it’s not?”

So, again: Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

That’s what I’ve decided for myself.

You’ll have to decide for yourself.

So, let’s suppose the worst happens.

And you are in an area where they turn out the lights and power. The Internet goes out. Water and other utilities just stop.

What happens next?

Most of us — virtually all of us — are completely unprepared. In every way imaginable.

But if that’s what happens, what do we do? What do YOU do? There are many different ways it can all unfold.

If you’re in a Trump-loyal area, where most people think he’s a great guy and is doing what’s best for the country: you’ll probably be fine. You may barely notice a blip.

But if you’re not, and Trump wants to “restore order,” suddenly, the lights could go. Power. Water. Internet. Heat. Supply Chains.

Especially if you’re in one of the areas resisting Trump.

And most especially if you’re in a Blue city, areas, or state.

If that’s the case, then society around you could break down quickly.

Hungry people get desperate.

You’ll need to decide what do to.

Let’s consider the really shit scenario first.

What Happens if Society breaks down. Scenarios:

Option 1: You’re in a Blue Zone.

So, you’re an urban hipster, or maybe have a young family in a nice suburb outside of a big city, or maybe you’re a working class Joe or Jane in a poor and largely minority areas of that same major city.

Martial law has been declared, however it might have happened. Things are not good.

Then, the power goes off. And people get hungry. Fast.

The entire goal of martial law and collapsing society is to get total control of everything, and get people will do anything so that they don’t starve or freeze. And especially, more diabolically, to make sure their children don’t starve. Hunger and cold are very effective tools for controlling a population, especially if the government has total control of everything.

Most of us aren’t sophisticated, and events will just happen, and we won’t be overly concerned or interested in the “why” and that its not “right” that Joe Fascist wants to own his own Caribbean Seastead and you and everyone else got in his way, so fuck you. You’re just worrying about how to keep your kids alive, and not starving to death or freezing to death. And you won’t be alone.

You cannot expect police, the military, or the government to save you. They will have orders, and who they choose to protect, or are ordered to help and protect, may not include you.

You have several choices.

And I can tell you right now what you and virtually everyone else will choose.

Survival. And I don’t blame you. Or anyone.

Your highest purpose, as far as most of us think it through, is to the continued survival of your kids if you have them, and after that, yourself and your partner.

After that might be some vague ideas about duty to each other, to God, to Country. But when Fred down the street has 3 kids and they haven’t eaten in 3 days, and he sees you with your bag of rice… Fred is going to ask you to share. You probably will, and then you’ll have 1/3 the rice you had before. And in a few days everyone will be hungry again.

And if you choose not to share your rice, well, you’re going to end up dead, and Fred is going to wind up with your bag of rice.

That’s human nature.

That’s the world our authoritarian friends understand, actually. This is how they see human nature as.

It may take a village. But if my village is starving, and yours is all high and mighty with your Sam’s Club bags of rice all piled up… we will be taking your rice.

Sad. True. Fight me if you don’t agree.

So, now you have a choice. Several choices.

You can share your rice.

You can hide your rice. Until they notice that you and yours aren’t quite as gaunt and hungry as everyone else. Then they will take your rice. And might hang you for hoarding.

Or you can run.

But where do you run to?

You’re not going to like the answer.

But the safest place will be among the people who prepared for this. People who have armed themselves against Fred and his starving kids.

If you’re going to starve, you need to go Full MAGA.

And you might want to start now. If you have that option. You may not. You may just be one of the people these folks consider “the problem,” packed in with other starving “problems” which there may be no urgency to help… or perhaps a desire to actively make it worse. Make less problems, as they see it.

But you will likely want to collaborate, be a good, non-threatening citizen of the new world order. Honestly. Most of us aren’t capable of resisting.

As long as we’re on these dark, dystopian, probably impossible scenarios — I pray impossible, and insane — even if you kiss their ass and do whatever they want you to, say whatever they want, for the benefit and survival of your kids… they may choose to let you starve, until you either sufficiently submit… or until you and your kids aren’t a problem anymore.

You didn’t prepare. You are “other.” You are the problem. You are the ones they blame for the situation, and are being told to blame. You’re not their problem. It’s a dog-eat-dog world, and people have to take care of themselves.

Option 2: You’re in the Red Zone (and not the fun ESPN kind).

If you’re in a red state, in a red area, and there’s been no unrest, you’re probably okay.

Especially if you can fit in, talk the talk, walk the walk. And most especially if you have an R by your voter registration records (which they will likely be checking at some point), and you can have no online history of saying the slightest negative about any of the people in power.

Unlike some dumbasses who are writing anonymous blog posts making himself an enemy of the state. But I digress.

Let’s say you’re in Austin, a dot of royal blue in a sea of red… you might be in for an interesting time. Good luck. See Option 1.

But if you’re in red America… you may not notice anything different, besides what you see on the news, and new recruiting stations for the military and militias. The news tells you how things are coming together to Make America Great Again versus “those” people.

The power stays on, there’s still mayonnaise in the Piggly Wiggly, and what’s happening in the cities and wherever else isn’t really your problem. You can wait it out.

For a time, anyway. If you’re not True MAGA, they’ll figure it out eventually, and in the surveillance state will come for both you and your uncool Aunt. But for now, you can ride it out. Although… you can chose to try to escape.

Option 3: You Better Run (cue Pink Floyd)

There is likely some window between the time that it seems certain that things are going to get really bad, and they actually get really bad.

I would assert that invocation of the Insurrection Act when there’s no particular need for it would be one big red flashing warning sign.

If you can go work remote from another country for a while, that would be a great time to do that.

Of course, not that many of us can.

Another big warning sign might be when big protests start, and there is violence, or conservative media starts putting out more warnings about violence, preparing the stage.

I’d say you have days to plan a sudden vacation in Mexico or Canada, or have a sudden death of a distant relative requires you to take some unexpected time off from work to visit another country.

All this could be a false alarm. These worst case scenarios don’t happen. You spend a few days or weeks in Canada, Mexico, or the Caribbean, and things don’t go to shit. You keep an eye on things, then go back to your work and your life, accepting condolences about your great uncle. Then you come back. All this alarmism was false. Go on with your life. God Bless.

If, however, there is a major political assassination of a major political figure, or a major terrorist even, and it is blamed on the woke left… you may be too late. You may still have a few hours, probably not more than a day, before martial law is declared, the borders are shut down. And you can’t get out. A major manufactured event could happen suddenly, without the Insurrection Act or anything else. It could even be legitimate. But given how manufactured, false-flag events are a big and classic step of any coup to totally overthrow a government, I’d be more than a bit skeptical. Not that it matters.

And, just to close things out: if you missed the window, and shit goes down, you have many fewer options.

Also, the number of Americas also looking to escape will be much higher. At that point crazy talk doesn’t sound so crazy, and people want to get their kids out.

But you can look forward to there being many more police, border patrol, ICE, and military on the roads, and probably volunteer militias setting up roadblocks and patrolling the border, which will be closed. At best, you might just be told to go home. At worst… who knows.

So, staying put may be the best option. I hate to say it… but it probably is.

The new government may not like you… but they likely have a use for you, probably as labor. If you’re draft age, maybe as cannon fodder. As a child, as someone who can be indoctrinated.

You can probably survive, say the words, kiss the ring. Take the scraps they give you.

So they don’t want you, your spouse, or your kids going anywhere.

And people who aren’t loyal, who are running, are self-identifying themselves. Convenient.

And even more conveniently, all those ICE detention centers that were built but not used… now suddenly have a purpose.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s say you are a delusional, paranoid person like me, and martial law hasn’t been fully declared and the borders aren’t closed yet, and you have a window to get across the border before it does.

Option 4: Beat the Rush. Go Fast. Go Now

I have traded notes with some about when to go.

The timeline is completely unknown. I’m making guesses, at best. Making shit up, at worst.

If this will even happen is completely unknown.

A day? A week? April 20th? April 21st? The first Saturday after? A month after that?

Never?

I don’t know.

Vegas odds would say that the chance of this happening is 0%. (I did look, unfortunately I can’t put money down anywhere. But that would be a great way to have an emergency stash if things did go bad.)

In my next post, where I’ll have you work with LLMs to create your own estimates, depending on how you line things up, and the more information you provide about current events versus history… the percentages quickly get into the double-digits, and keep going up as you keep digging into it.

But this could be all totally crazy talk. I’m still hoping it is.

But if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, I think that’s the best time to plan a vacation out of the country. Starting immediately. Or try to work remotely for a few weeks to see how things unfold.

Then… if there are protests… and they start turning violent. That’s when you get in the car and start driving, if you can’t get a last-minute flight.

If there is a major event that changes the world. Run. Go. Fast. Get to the border and across it fast, before it closes. If you can.

Although you may already be too late.

Closing the border, as happened on September 11th, may be one of the first things that happens. Don’t expect it to reopen.

At least not for you.

This is heavy shit.

It is absolutely insane.

Batshit.

Unhinged.

It may be completely wrong.

But there is a non-zero chance it isn’t.

Your Go-Bag:

If you are going to try to get across the border before full martial law is declared, here is what you’ll need to have packed ready to go at a moment’s notice.

Literally.

You need all of this packed up in a bag that you can grab and run.

1. Identity & Documents (Most Important)

• Passport (and copies, digital & paper)
• Driver’s license / state ID
• Social Security card (copy is okay)
• Birth certificate (copy or scanned)
• Vaccination records & key medical records
• Emergency contact list (print + encrypted digital)
• USB drive (probably multiple) with: Encrypted copies of all documents above, Insurance, tax, and legal records (scanned), Backup of key passwords or private keys
• Notarized Power of Attorney (if relevant)
• Cash: $2,000–$5,000 in mixed bills (USD and/or foreign currency) (Yeah, right, for most of us. Still. You take the point. And I don’t have an opinion on Bitcoin at this time.)
• Credit/debit cards (with international access, which might still work. Or not.)

2. Electronics & Communication

• Smartphone (fully charged)
• Backup phone (unlocked burner, with SIM)
• Phone charger (USB-C, Lightning, etc.)
• Power bank (10,000+ mAh)
• VPN app pre-installed (Mullvad, ProtonVPN)
• Signal, ProtonMail, and secure browser apps
• Encrypted USB drive (see above)
• Headphones (discreet, for calls and audio)

3. Clothing (the absolute minimum, lightweight, versatile)

• 2 pairs underwear
• 2 pairs socks (wool preferred)
• 1–2 t-shirts or base layers
• 1 lightweight long-sleeve shirt
• 1 pair travel pants (convertible if possible)
• 1 compact rain shell or windbreaker
• 1 warm layer (fleece or packable down)
• Hat / cap
• Lightweight scarf or buff
• Walking shoes or boots (worn) + optional sandals in bag (recommended)
• Compact towel (quick-dry microfiber)

4. Health & Hygiene

• Toothbrush, toothpaste
• Feminine Hygiene Products
• Razor or trimmer
• Deodorant
• Sunscreen (travel size)
• Lip balm
• Wet wipes or baby wipes
• Hand sanitizer
• Prescription medications (30–90 day supply)
• OTC meds (ibuprofen, antihistamine, Imodium)
• Basic first aid kit (bandages, antiseptic, etc.)
• Glasses or contacts (with backup pair)

5. Survival & Practical Tools

• Multi-tool (e.g., Leatherman)
• Small flashlight (USB rechargeable)
• Collapsible water bottle or hydration pouch
• Water purification tablets or filter straw
• Lighter + waterproof matches
• Duct tape (flat rolled or small spool)
• Sewing needle & thread (compact)
• Emergency blanket (foil type)
• Notepad + pen
• Small lock or cable lock

6. Security & Legal Prep

• Emergency contact code phrase
• Personal safety plan (routes, rendezvous points)
• Multiple copies of critical documents hidden separately
• Map (paper) of nearby regions or target country
• Language cheat sheet (if leaving for non-English region)

7. Optional but Valuable

• Compact e-reader or paperback book
• Local SIM card (if you know your destination)
• Portable Wi-Fi device (MiFi)
• Old phone / USB with family photos/memories
• Religious/spiritual
• Neck pouch or hidden wallet (important)
• Traveler’s notebook and pen to record events or make plans

Packing Tips

• Compression bags: For clothes and soft items
• Weight under 20 lbs: Prioritize mobility over comfort
• Waterproof cover or liner: Critical for electronics/docs
• Keep cash, passport, phone on-body at all times (belt, neck, hidden)

A note about phones and VPNs

If you’re making a run for it, a VPN (Virtual Private Network) serves as a critical personal security tool, not just a tech convenience. In a crisis, governments often block:

• News sites (e.g., BBC, Reuters, NYT)
• Social media platforms (Twitter/X, Facebook, Reddit)
• Messaging apps (Signal, Telegram)

A VPN lets you route your connection through a country with no censorship, restoring access to the open internet.

1. If you’re texting or emailing others about escape plans, financial access, or dissent, that traffic could be intercepted or flagged.
2. Using a VPN masks your IP address and encrypts traffic between you and secure tools like Signal, ProtonMail, or encrypted browsers.
3. Airports, hotels, and border crossings often have insecure or monitored networks.
4. A VPN adds a strong layer of protection in hostile environments or unfamiliar locations — even in “safe” countries.

Option 5: Resist

You can resist.

I’ll have to make that choice myself.

There is a principle, here.

Standing up for your country. Democracy. The Constitution.

Endless Scenarios. I can’t predict any of them. I can’t even predict for sure that any of the chain-events into martial law and what even comes next is accurate. Again, what are the chances this will happen? 1 in 1000? 1 in 10? 1 in 3? 50/50? I’d like it best if it were zero.

You’ll have to decide for yourself, and things will become clear with time.

But at some point, I’ll have to decide whether resisting is my best option. And if so, how.

And it’s easier for me. I’m old — but not decrepit — but there weren’t a huge number of quality years ahead of me anyway.

But for you… can you really take on trained military veterans who are ideologically loyal to what’s happening?

I’ll tell you the answer for me: fuck no.

I can’t take on guys with AR-15s and years of military training. There’s no point.

I’ll probably stick it out, try to talk to people, reason with them, avoid being trouble maker. Peaceful resistance, asserting for my civil rights, questioning what’s going on. As long as I’m allowed. That’s what I recommend for everyone else, too. I also don’t have any desire to pick up my dad’s old .30–06 hunting rifile and try to shoot anyone. It wouldn’t help anything anyway, and I like my neighbor, and maybe prove his point about those liberals being dangerous. Maybe if they put me in a camp, and he sees me being starved and beaten, he’ll conclude maybe he actually is on the wrong side. Or not.

So, my other best option might be to run.

This is an attractive option… but again, probably only if you beat the rush.

If you have kids, or adult kids of draft age… and you become convinced it’s going down… I strongly suggest you try to get them out of the country if you can.

I’ve talked to mine. Our plan is pretty much what I laid out above.

The time to do it is as soon after Trump invokes the Insurrection Act as possible.

The longer you wait, the more likely something will happen that leads to the borders closing.

And an odd fact you may have forgotten: Sheinbaum (the President of Mexico) got Trump to agree to drop his Tariffs by sending 10,000 Mexican troops to the US border, in addition to what Trump has beefed up on the US.

A crazy thought (but there is nothing except crazy thoughts in what I write, I know), what if these troops aren’t there to keep people from getting into the US… but to keep them from getting out?

Yah. That ones is really getting crazy-train, I personally don’t even think that’s the case. But… it does fit. The reason I don’t think its part of the play, and just a serendipitous coincidence, is that Sheinbaum was the one who suggested it, and Trump probably accepted it because he thought it made him look good. But back to the point.

Canada, O Canada…

If things really go full-nightmare scenario — and again, I’m really hoping they won’t — then there will be a flood of refugees trying to get into Canada and Mexico, and you will probably be too late.

And Canada and Mexico probably don’t even want — and can’t handle — a tidal wave of refugee Americans to feed and care for.

Plus, not incidentally, it’ll really piss Trump and the junta off.

So, don’t think these countries are going to be able to welcome you in when the border closes.

Timing is Everything

If martial law is declared, you are almost certainly too late.

If power and communication grids are taken down, you are too late.

All of this will likely happen very suddenly, and very quickly, if it does happen.

If there is a major assassination, or major civil unrest turning into terrorism after Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, you probably only have hours to get out of the country if you can.

If you’re going to try, go the moment you hear about it. And hope that you can get across. If not, well, welcome to the future.

Where to Go if Canada and Mexico are Out.

Getting anywhere will be very, very difficult, unless you plan ahead.

I have to say this: Your best bet may be to stay put. You are unlikely to be successful getting out if you didn’t get out early.

But, let’s say you’re going to try.

An international flight on your private jet to your personal luxury compound in the South Pacific would be your best choice.

But if it’s being renovated (such a bother), a flight out immediately to virtually any other country is your second best choice.

If you’re making a run for it, and can’t get a flight… then just get across the border of anywhere. Probably Canada or Mexico if you can, then hopefully you can get another flight anywhere else.

If you / you and your kids are able to get to Canada or Mexico, you’re probably best off trying to keep on going.

There will likely be a flood of refugees, and Trump will put pressure on our two closest neighbors — who probably won’t be able to resist — not to let you in, or to send you back.

Also, he is already threatening armed incursions into Mexico “to fight gangs,” conquering Canada to make it our 51st State, and has made invasion plans for the Panama Canal. Oh, and probably Greenland.

But if you can get there, probably your best shot for asylum is to keep going.

For Americans needing to flee on short notice, the key will be countries where humanitarian visas, temporary residency, or asylum processes are accessible and where U.S. passports still carry weight in emergency contexts. Preparing documentation in advance, such as proof of political affiliation, public activism, or risk status, could be critical for fast-tracked entry or eventual asylum claims.

For Europe, if you can get there, the best European refuge in Germany, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and Ireland. These countries combine strong democratic institutions, liberal asylum policies, and deep cultural opposition to fascism and authoritarianism.

Germany and Sweden in particular have well-established systems for political asylum and a clear historical commitment to protecting dissidents.

Norway and the Netherlands offer high levels of safety, freedom, and human rights protections, while Ireland — English-speaking and independent-minded — offers both accessibility and cultural familiarity.

Each of these nations would likely recognize the gravity of a U.S. descent into autocracy and respond accordingly, especially for journalists, activists, LGBTQ+ individuals, and those with a clear risk profile.

Fast-track humanitarian visas, academic safe haven programs, or temporary political asylum could be available, especially with solid documentation. The key: act quickly, show credible risk, and aim for countries with both moral alignment and institutional capacity to respond.

The best options in the Western Hemisphere are Costa Rica, Uruguay, Chile, and Belize.

Costa Rica stands out for its long-standing democratic traditions, lack of a military, and strong human rights record. It offers relative ease of entry, political neutrality, and a well-established expat infrastructure.

Uruguay, often overlooked, is a social democracy with a robust asylum system, progressive policies, and a calm, open society.

Chile has a strong legal framework and political culture that values human rights, although bureaucratic hurdles can be slow.

Belize, while small, is English-speaking, peaceful, and has a history of welcoming Americans through both permanent residency and long-stay visas.

These countries offer more than just geographic proximity — they provide ideological safety for those targeted under an American far-right regime.

Importantly, each has a functioning legal system, reasonable access to healthcare, and broad protections for freedom of speech, gender and sexual identity, and political dissent.

But that doesn’t mean they’re able or willing to take a sudden flood of Americans.

And while Argentina, Venezuela, and Brazil also present viable options, and you might be able to get to them more easily than other destinations, their political climates are more volatile, with current administrations that could shift alliances or priorities quickly. Also, they’re the ones who had refugees going to the US. They vary from dictatorship to quasi-democracies, and except for Argentina, unless you’re a leftist, you may find your welcome… less than welcoming. And we’ll say the same thing about Cuba. You might be able to get there. Shit, you could paddle over in theory. But you’ll be jumping from a right-wing dictatorship into a left-wing dictatorship. I’m not sure you’ll like it there much better. Weather’s nice, though, I hear.

End Note

This one got really long, too. I meant to just give practical advice, but there’s so much here, I’m decided to get as much of it out as I could. It might be useful.

My most important advice:

DO NOT PANIC.

This is probably the rantings of a a person who’s consuming too much questionable stuff. Even if the news every day seems to suggest that more is up, it might just be coincidence, not some grand plot for techno-fascists to collapse society and put corporate monarchies in place.

Even writing that (or reading that) still sounds insane, right? It probably is. I pray it is.

I pray that my kind detractor quoted at the beginning of this post is the one who’s right, not me.

What can you really do to stop this?

My opinion is still that the ONLY way we can really stop this is to tell people about the likely plan. The Coup Roadmap is classic, well-understood, and it is less likely to succeed the more people who know about it, and are watching for it. It might give enough people enough knowledge and backbone to stand up to it, to not fall for it.

If we don’t stop it: our options suck. You are probably best off going along, surviving, and hoping things collapse under their own weight. One thing I think we are seeing with DOGE is that these yo-yos really don’t have any comprehension of how hard it is to run a government as they cut it. That makes the assumption that they care. The stated goal of the Techno-optimists is to Acceleerate the Collapse, and people dying is just the old breaking eggs to make omelets thing. Unfortunately, we’re the eggs, but that’s a price they’re willing to apy.

But if things don’t go as far as they could, if this is all sidelines or stopped, there may be some chance we can reconstitute things and make things stronger to keep them from trying again.

My biggest hope, if things go down, is that the ruthless people at the top aren’t so ruthless as to do… really, really bad things, like turn off the power for areas that resist.

Final Thoughts for Today’s Post

The tried and true cookbook for overthrowing governments is NOT new, and not made up.

There is a playbook of how wannabe-dictators overthrow governments time after time, and it has worked many times.

The signs we’re seeing of the actions being taken by this Administration and Trump that align with the early and not-so-early steps of such plans are also not made up. I’ll illustrate that in my next post.

What’s happening now aligns eerily with setting the stage for setting the stage for a series of events that culminate with Trump declaring martial law and suspending the Constitution and Free Elections.

What is made up are my estimates of the likelihood of all of this happening.

I have been working for a long time. Part of my role at times has been to make, let’s call it, market estimates, and plan for how we might respond if a competitor does this, or the market does that, or this policy or that policy changes. This is called scenario planning. Risk Mitigation. Business Plans. Opportunity Assessments. And you know what? All those things are all made up. Nobody knows. But leaders in companies make plans based on this, then adjust as they need to. Check out the Annual Reports of public companies. You’ll see the same risks and mitigations laid out, in much detail.

What’s concerning is that the folks we are up against know all this stuff too. They are counting on a lightning war (see Project 2025, they say as much), to impose their will before anyone can resist.

And if there is resistance, they likely already have mitigation plans. That’s how you plan a product launch, a new company, a new PR campaign. To them, it’s a game. They treat it that way. For us… it’s our lives, and the lives of our kids and families.

And if they hit roadblocks, well, they’ll just postpone, delay, and try again later.

They only need to win once.

To save our Constitution, we have to win every time.

But, talking to someone the other day, they still have faith. They think our citizens, our military, our police will see what’s going on when it goes too far, and step up. Trump will fail. For the sake of all of us, I hope she is right.

Hang in. Be strong. Don’t panic. You are not alone.

Read the Fifth and Final Post: Check My Math: A Step-by-Step Guide to Evaluating the Risk of Authoritarianism in the U.S.

Full Series

• Part 1: On April 20th, 2025, the United States Will Cross the Point of No Return.
• Part 2: If the Shit Actually Hits the Fan.
• Part 3: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’
• Part 3A: What Changed my Mind. From ‘It can’t happen here’ to ‘Oh shit.’ (The TLDR version)
• Part 4: A Shopping List for the Unthinkable.
• Part 5: Check My Math: A Step-by-Step Guide to Evaluating the Risk of Authoritarianism in the U.S.